The Press SATURDAY, DECEMBER 1, 1962. Conservatives’ Setback

Press, Volume CI, Issue 29994, 1 December 1962, Page 10

The Press SATURDAY, DECEMBER 1, 1962. Conservatives’ Setback

The Conservative Party hoped that the five byelections held last week would show the party to be recovering its former prestige. Instead, it now faces the unwelcome conclusion that it stands about where it did a year ago, when the results of by-elections suggested that the Labour Party would be overwhelmingly likely to win an early General Election. Of the five seats, the Woodside seat in unemploymentaffected Glasgow seemed most vulnerable, and here a Labour majority of 1368 replaced the Conservative majority of 2084 in the 1959 General Election. The next most vulnerable seemed to be South Northamptonshire, where Labour needed to win 7 per cent, of the Conservative votes. In the event the Conservative majority was reduced from 5934 to 917. In Central Norfolk, where a swing of 7.8 per cent, would have defeated the Conservative candidate, the majority was reduced from 6787 to 220. Labour needed a 10.6 per cent, swing to win Chippenham, the Liberals a 17.6 per cent, gain at the expense of the Conservatives. In this middle-class electorate the Conservative vote fell by more than 8000. the Labour vote by a little more than 2000; and the Liberal vote increased by nearly 5000. A Conservative majority over Labour of 8785 in 1959 was reduced to a Conservative majority over Libera] of 1588. Worse still, at South Dorset the Government lost to Labour a normally very safe Conservative seat. It is not so much the loss of this seat as the manner of losing it that must cause the Conservatives concern. During the campaign the Conservatives were embarrassed by the appearance of an independent anti-Common Market Conservative candidate in this agricultural electorate. This candidate polled more than 5000 votes, and was largely responsible for reducing the 1959 Conservative vote by about 9000. The Labour candidate, though polling'

1750 fewer votes than in 1959, won the seat, and the Liberal, who polled some 2000 votes more than in 1959, was third. By-election results are seldom reliable guides to the outcome of a General Election, but British newspapers are not disposed to treat lightly the cumulative evidence from five byelections of the failure of Mr Macmillan’s “ new “ look ” Government to restore electoral confidence in the Conservative Party. This evidence must affect the Government’s political strategy in the months; ahead. British observers now take it for granted that Mr Macmillan will defer calling a General Election until the last possible date —in October, 1964. To make good use of the remainder of the five years’ mandate, Mr Macmillan must get his party into good heart and be sure of its support for him. “ The Times ” says the Conservatives cannot regard! South Dorset as anything other than a damaging blow to the party morale and a dangerous portent. The Conservatives’ leaders, “ The “ Times ” says, must carry out a thorough analysis of the lessons South Dorset teaches about the dangers in which Conservative leaders must find themselves “if the Brussels negotiations go sour upon them “and begin to stir up feel"ing among the rank and “file”. Clearly the restoration of confidence in members of the Conservative Party must rank high among Mr Macmillan's immediate purposes. The Labour Party will naturally be encouraged by the persistence of last year’s swing (in relation to the 1959 General Election) of about 7 per cent, of the Conservative vote. The Liberal Party will be equally cheered by the evidence that the Liberal revival is not, as some political strategists have said, on the wane, but is indeed running so strongly that the Liberals seem likely to have more than their present seven seats in the next House of 1 Commons.