CITY TRAFFIC EXPECTED TO DOUBLE BY 1980

Press, Volume C, Issue 29554, 1 July 1961, Page 10

CITY TRAFFIC EXPECTED TO DOUBLE BY 1980

Christchurch people will wish to make more than twice as many car trips in and out of the city centre in 1980 than in 1959. and will make about two and a half times as many car journeys within the city generally There will also be an increase of one-third in trade vehicle trips to and from the city centre, and of more than two-thirds in trade vehicle movements about the city.

These forecasts are contained in a newsletter of the traffic and transport advisory committee of the Christchurch Regional Planning Authority The work which led to the forecasts was directed by Mr G. C. Suggate. investigating engineer (traffic and transport) to the authority, with the assistance of Dr B. I. Hayman, of the applied mathematics laboratory of the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research. Lincoln The forecasts will provide the basis of the authority's master transport plan.

"As we don't know whether the necessary parking and reading will be provided. we are not yet in a position to make firm forecasts of the number of vehicles which will actually be brought into the city. " Mr Suggate said yesterday "We expect that the increase in the number of trios will lie somewhere between 4* oer cent, of the 1959 figure which is our estimate if the number of cars a head of population were to remain as at oresent. and 109 pe r cent which allows for a rise we predict of at least one-half in the number a head The technical sub-committee of our advisory committee is considering the matter. “It has been shown in several studies overseas that when persons are discouraged from bringing thei-" cars into one part nf an area they tend to transfer th’tr custom to another part. This indicates that, if satirtactorv narking and reading are not provided in central Christ, church, the which is turned awav will go to sub urban centres Vet >t s«wr only sens : ble that the huer capital investment represented by the bu!ld*n"s ofj the c’ty cen're should be I USP-s fn the full. “Parking is. of course, i

likely to be the major problem. In many parts of the central business district legal parking has already reached saturation. and illegallyparked vehicles are numerous in some sectors. Trade vehicles will need special consideration, as under present conditions they have to double-park for their legitimate business.” The forecasts in the newsletter give an additional 50.525 car trips in and put cf the city between 6.30 a m. and 6.30 p.m. in 1980. if the cars are provided for in the city; the increase in the whole of the built-up area is estima'ed at 166.128. or more if vehicles are squeezed out of the centre. Trade vehicle trins are forecast to rise by 4874 in the centre and by 29.282 in the city generally. 1959 Survey

The forecasts are based on calculations made mainly on figures collected in a survey carried out in September and October, 1959. when householders and tradespeople answered questionnaires prepared by the authority. The automatic traffic counts collected by the authority were used to improve the accuracy of the results of the questionnaire.

Special allowances were made for particular features such as the Lyttelton road tunnel and the expansion of air traffic from the Christchurch airport. Dr. Hayman's Formulae

To link the 1959 figures with expectations for 1980. Dr Hayman derived formulae connecting development opportunities, house valuations, and the size of local shopping centres with the hkely generation of traffic by each of 27 districts. This was done separately for ears, trade vehicles, public transport, and bicycles, to give the foreoasts now released. The 1980 traffic-generation forecasts and the 1959 inter-dis-trict traffic figures were then put through the Treasury computer in Wellington to give forecasts of the amounts of each kind of traffic in 1980 between each pair of districts: and this information, whtoh is now being supplied ‘o the authority, will be made public soon. TTe authoritv hopes later to. forecast traffic conditions

when Greater Christchurch has a population of 500,000. which is expected to be about the turn of the century. This is not possible with any accuracy by methods used up to now, as it includes such things as the likely traffic between future large suburbs which are as yet almost entirely rural.

Dr. Hayman. however, using the Treasury computer. is deriving formulae which, it is hoped, will give the traffic between pnirs of, districts on the basis of con- j d’l'ttons in those districts alone, and. if success is achieved, figures for 1930 based on these formulae will be obtained from, the comP, utpr ,TA e „ exlenit t 0 which these 1980 figures correspond j with those already derived will e:ve a measure of the re.; habikty of the new formulae! w’hen applied to the 500 000 reoX' „ Success in predicting 1980 figures for Christchurch will mean also that the method may also be useful for predictions for other cities, which would be an advantage, since it is a much more direct method than t.ha- I by which the Christchurch! forecasts were prepared. Personal Items The Bishop of Christchurch (the Rt. Rev. A. K Warren> i will visit Amberley and! i Ulen mark tomorrow to take confirmation services there Hon S Kong :V? n ev R Hall) and ■AL w,il arr ive in Cnnstchurch this morning. ' p.'A, W 1 J s ®,, 1 ?* Suests of th e Bishop of Christchurch <the Tuesday. A K Warren) until Mr J. H. Watt has been appointed a member of the Canterbury Raspberry Marketing Committee as the Government representative, replacing Mr C. S. Richardson. Mr T. Tyson has been appointed a member of the Burnham Domain Board in place of Mr H. A Colquhoun, who has resigned. Mr J C. Christie, senior supervisor of the clerical 1 the Chief Post! Office. Christchurch, has been I appointed Acting-Chief Post-, master at Greymouth.