Mr Walsh Forecasts Recession By June

Press, Volume XCIX, Issue 29388, 15 December 1960, Page 20

Mr Walsh Forecasts Recession By June

(New Zealand Press Association)

WELLINGTON, December 14. The president of the Federation of Labour (Mr F. P. Walsh) today predicted that New Zealand would have unemployment by next June because of a developing balance of payments crisis at the present time. Mr Walsh, who is just out of hospital, said the Government had a “real economic headache,” a headache which he was sure they did not understand. He said that the F.O.L. executive would meet next Monday to discuss the Government’s proposal to do away with compulsory unionism.

The main cause of New Zealand’s economic ills was the fall in overseas receipts, Mr Walsh said. On present trends the Government would be in serious difficulties over the balance of payments.

He estimated that the balance of overseas reserves would drop below £65 million. He recalled that in 1957 he estimated that they would drop to £5O million and in fact they fell to £42 million.

“As a. result, the Governmen’ will be forced to borrow overseas. Failing this, we will no.

have sufficient mpney to bring in raw materials to keep our factories in production, and by next June, I forecast we will have unemployment in the country,” he said.

“The manufacturers. shopkeepers and wage and salary earners will be the first people to feel the pinch,” he said. Voluntary Unionism

Mr Walsh said the National Government’s plans to introduce voluntary unionism were “the least of my worries.” “Just before entering hospital. I made a new agreement for the Seamen’s Union which gave them incorporation of the seagoing allowance, which no other maritime union secured,” he said.

“The agreement also had a watertight preference clause. It came as somewhat of a surprise to me that the Court raised no objection to issuing the award with a preference clause. “A preference clause of the character of that in the "seamen’s agreement will give complete control of who shall be admitted to unions, and employed by the employers.

“I think the proposed National Government’s legislation will have a most stimulating effect on the trade union movement. “A movement that can determine its own preference clause without legislation from either party becomes an effective trade union movement standing on its own feet, and not dependent on politicians for whatever gains it may make.” Social Credit Vote

Commenting on the increase of the Social Credit vote at the recent election in farming communities. Mr Walsh said this was the result of the land policy of both the Labour Government and the former National Government. "Small, uneconomic - farms breed victims for the mealymouthed Social Crediter, who advocates a medicine that all informed people know will only kill the patient,” he said. Mr Walsh said that after giving him a thorough examination, his doctor had given him a clearance for his discharge from hospital. “Provided that I do not play polo, or use my steeplechaser over the fences on the farm, or dehorn cattle, for three months. I should be all right, the doctor told me.

“Tonight I intend to go to a cabaret, I feel so well,” he said.