U.S. Presidency-IV Stevenson May Be Chosen By Democrats

Press, Issue 29236, 21 June 1960, Page 21

U.S. Presidency-IV Stevenson May Be Chosen By Democrats

(BW

GEORGE JUERGENS

The rannen have rounded the Ant bend in the Democratic neeMnV'*! race and the favourite John Kennedy, of Mnsaachutetta, has taken the inside poeiBut still there, though lagafter the Kennedy spurt, “available” Stuart Symington, add “non-committal” Lyndon jgtmaon; and bringing up the iter is Adlai Stevenson, twice defeated candidate lor the Presidency, Senator Kennedy is thanking the Democrats these days for rejecting his Vice-Presidential bid at the 1957 Convention. If he had made it—and he came very close—he would almost certainly have gone down to defeat with Artlai Stevenson. Defeated VicePresidential candidates do not have bright political futures. As it turned out, he acquired useful experience and reams of favourable publicity, and was able to bounce back to higher things tids year. Although he is in many ways the most attractive candidate, he must work constantly to overcome severe handicaps. Most serious, of course, is his Catholic religion. But by his crushing victory in predominantly Protestant West Virginia, Kennedy has proved that it is possible for a Catholic

to win general acclamation. Only once before, back in 1928 When Al Smith was nominated by the Democrats, has a major party attempted to break the Protestant lease on the White House. While it seems unlikely that any Democrat could have won that year, Smith’s Catholicism was almost certainly a factor in the completeness of his defeat. Kennedy has attempted to deflate the issue by taking a moderstand on traditional questions —notably birth-control and the ’relationship between Church and ’State—and by urging Catholics not to vote for him simply because of his religion. ; At the same time, he is not above a bit of political blackmail He has warned party leaders that however many votes are lost because of his religion, many more traditionally Democratic votes will be lost among dis- . gruntled catholics in the Northern cities if he is not nominated. With that warning has gone a firm refusal to provide an easy way uut by accepting the VicePresidential nomination. Wife Only 30 Still another handicap is his age. Kennedy is 42 and looks younger. If he is elected, the first lady will be a “glamour girl” of 30. The very qualities which make them so attractive—their youth and vigour and good looks—also cause serious qualms. The junior senator from Massachusetts has a strongly “liberal” voting record, as that word is interpreted by Northern Democrats. According to a score sheet compiled by the trade unions’

Committee on Political Education. fo.voted “right” on 15 oflAkey It is somehow typical of UM that, deMite his record, he should be under heavy attack from both leaders or organised labour and from a liberal wins of the Demo* watic Party headed by Mrs Eleanor Roosevelt. The labour leaders are upset because Senator Kennedy’s well publicised investigation of Jam— Hoffa and the Teamsters* Union resulted in federal legislation which they regard as unduly punitive!. Mrs Roosevelt has never forgiven Kennedy for ducking a vote on the Senate resolution to censure McCarthy. The Democratic hopeful picked the occasion to have surgery performed on a war-aggravated spinal disorder, thereby avoiding a split with his largely Catholic, pro-McCarthy constituents.

While he was in the hospital, Kennedy wrote “Profiles in Courage,” which won a Pulitzer Prize in 1957. There are those who question whether he has himself more profile than courage. Humphrey Slips Back Hubert Humphrey, the senior senator from Minnesota, was running hardest for the nomination up to West Virginia—but covering least ground. Part of his difficulty was that he just didn’t look to most people the way a President should look. He lacked the celebrity appeal of a Kennedy or the father symbolism of an Eisenhower—factors which have become increasingly important in campaigns managed by Madison avenue advertising agencies to be fought out on television.

Others complained that he seemed glib. When Humphrey faces an audience, his enormous knowledge and old-time rhetoric bring forth a torrent of words which is not easily checked.

The senator offers still another explanation for his defeat by Kennedy. Unlike Kennedy and Symington, he has no personal fortune, and unlike Nixon no party organisation, with which to pay the bills. His rival from Massachusetts travelled to speaking engagements in a private plane, and poured gallons of tea down the throats of gushing ladies. Humphrey barely limped along on day-to-day handouts. i Humphrey’s candidacy materialised in the winter of 1958 when he got together with another great talker, Nikita S. Khrushchev, for 12 hours of uninterrupted conversation in the Kremlin. The “talkathon” made him a celebrity, and his ambition made him a candidate. Represents Left-wing Why, then, did he fall down in the West Virginia primary? An ardent disciple of the New Deal, he represented Left-wing opinion in the American political spectrum. He had taken strong stands for civil rights and disarmament, and liked to say that “the people who work with their hands are my people." But these principles disqualified him with a generation more interested in protecting what has been won than in going out for more. Humphrey's retirement leaves three other candidates besides Kennedy. They are playing a waiting game, trying to tie up enough votes to stop Kennedy, so they can offer themselves as compromise candidates to a deadlocked Convention. Least Likely to Succeed Lynton Johnson, of Texas, the majority leader in the Senate, is least likely to pull it off. Though he is a superb politician, and has the South solidly with him, he is bucking a tradition at least as formidable as that which faces Kennedy. No Southerner has been elected President since the Civil War. (Woodrow Wilson was raised in the South, but made his

career in the North.) The explanation is simply that the Democratic Party is really two parties, centred in the North and South, which come together for convenience during Presidential elections and to organise the Congress. The strongest supporters of civil rights legislation, for instance, are Northern Democrats, and the strongest opposers are Southern Democrats. Stevenson Waits Adlai Stevenson has a better chance, but must bear the stigma of being a two-time loser. At the moment he is doing little to advance his candidacy, but has placed himself squarely in position for lightning to strike. Stevenson is universally respected, and in some circles revered, for the literate, humane, and high-minded qualities he has brought to politics. Yet his two decisive defeats demonstrate that he has failed to get his personality and thoughts across to his own people as well as he has overseas.

His supporters must convince the party that 1952 and 1958 were suicide runs, that nobody could have beaten Eisenhower, and that a suspected aloofness will not dash the party’s hopes once more. It will take a deadlocked convention to make them listen. A possible compromise choice is Harry Truman’s protege, Senator Stuart Symington, of Missouri. Very few are passionately for him, but then again, very few are passionately against him.

Symington has pulled the neat trick of being all things to all men. His voting record stamps him as a down-the-line liberal, but his public utterances convince conservative Democrats that they can entrust the nation to his stewardship. Part of his technique is to avoid controversy whenever possible. In the course of one recent interview in Alabama, for instance, he had no comment to make on antilynching laws, on school desegregation, or on Negro voting rights, but came out firmly for world peace! Strong Leader Wanted Perhaps the most striking aspect of the 1960 race is that all the candidates (with the exception of Stevenson) hold federal office. The era of State dominance is over, and the nation is turning to the White House for strong leadership. As the campaign progresses, the candidates are likely to be judged by that criterion. Kennedy has impressively widened an early lead for the Democratic nomination. His recent primary victories in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Maryland have started a bandwaggon rolling, which could win him the nomination by the second or third ballot. The tip-off will be in what effect his victories have on uncommitted delegations, particularly those in New York, Michigan and California. If Kennedy seems a reasonably sure bet, those

States will join him while there is still patronage to go around. By the same token, the very fact that he is in the lead makes him vulnerable. The rest of the candidates will be combining thir efforts from now on to stop him, and they are a hardened group of professionals. Kennedy cannot afford to falter. At the moment, the chances are probably slightly more than even that he can hold his lead and win an early nomination. But if he should fail to go over the top by the third or fourth ballot, there will undoubtedly be a swing away which will end his chances.

In that event the convention will turn to one of its compromise choices. Although Symington would seem the more likely prospect, I am inclined to take a long shot and predict that Adlai Stevenson will be nominated for the third time.

Stevenson’s following is small now, but fanatical. It includes some of the most respected names in the party, notably Mrs Roosevelt His two previous campaigns have earned him respect. And, perhaps most important Kennedy’s following is more likely to drift to him than to Symington. —(Central Press. All Rights Reserved.) (Concluded.)