Big Increase Forecast In Juvenile Labour Force

Press, Volume XCVIII, Issue 29068, 3 December 1959, Page 22

Big Increase Forecast In Juvenile Labour Force

(Aew Zeauma Press

WELLINGTON, December 2.

The juvenile labour force—that is the number of persons under 21 available for employment—is expected to increase by 40 per cent, from 150,800 persons to 211,000 between 1960 and 1970 and the total labour force by between 21 and 24 per cent., says an article in the Labour and Employment Gazette, issued by the Department of Labour.

“The largest numbers should come into the labour force between 1962 and 1967: it is estimated that the total number of workers under 21 will increase at an average of 9000 each year over these five years,” says the article. These sharp increases would be in marked contrast to the changes which took place during the 20 years from 1936 to 1956. During that period the juvenile labour force grew by only 6.9 per cent and the total labour force by 22 per cent. Had it not been for the substantial increases in the proportion of women taking employment outside the home, the total labour force increase would have been as low as 17.3 per cent “This slow rate of growth was principally the result of the smaller numbers of young persons entering employment each year over that period. Labour force expansion did not keep pace with the needs of the economy and a situation of overfull employment had developed.” The position had been changing over recent years, but it was not expected that the increasing supply of juvenile workers would appreciably affect employment till the mid-1960’5.

After surveying the period from 1920 onwards, and listing

the fluctuations in the birth rate, the report continues: “Between 1959 and 1962, the flow s of persons under 21 into the labour force will be slightly reduced as a consequence of the fall in birth rate between 1941 and 1943.” From 1962 to 1967; the juvenile labour force was expected to grow at an average rate of 6 per cent, each year and the total labour force by between 10.2 and 11.5 per cent, over the whole period. During these five years, about 200,000 young persons would enter employment for the first time, and this sharp inflow would have important repercussions on the labour force and the economy in general. The effect on employment would depend largely on the rate of ecoonmic activities and the demand for labour generated by that expansion. “Recent experience in the United States indicates that any slackening in the demand for workers tends to affect the younger age-groups more than the middle and upper agegroups,” says the article.