SOUTH ISLAND MAY HAVE SMALL WHEAT SURPLUS

Press, Volume XCVIII, Issue 29051, 13 November 1959, Page 12

SOUTH ISLAND MAY HAVE SMALL WHEAT SURPLUS

The South Island is likely to have some wheat to ship to the North Island next year. The general manager of the Wheat Committee, Mr L. C. Dunshea, said yesterday that if the crop yielded on the lines of an estimate mad** by the Department of Agriculture there might be a surplus of 05m bushels, but he added that a variation in the yield could result in there being little, if any, wheat to ship or a quantity greater than 0.5 m bushels. “According to the estimate recently released by the Department of Agriculture, the area sown to wheat this year is 190,000 acres,” said Mr Dunshea. “Although stating that it is much too early in the season to make an accurate forecast of the yield, the department at this stage expects the harvest early in 1960 will produce 9.5 m bushels. “It is 15 years since such an area was sown to wheat in New Zealand, and it is 17 years since a crop of this size was produced at the peak of production of the war years. Whereas 17 years ago the average yield aq acre was 34 bushels the expectation is that under normal favourable conditions the wheat sown this year will average 50 bushels to the acre. Dependence on Weather

“It is realised that everything will depend on continued favourable weather until harvest and during the harvest itself, but given such conditions a crop of 9.5 m bushels does not seem too much to expect, particularly as Aotea Is the predominant variety accounting for more than 80 per cent, of the area,” Mr Dunshea said.

“While the crop now expected has not been equalled for 17 years, in the intervening period New Zealand’s requirements of wheat have greatly increased with the growth of population and today demands for wheat are accelerating. The indications are that in one year demands have increased by more than 0.5 m bushels,” he said. “Whereas 17 years ago 115 m

bushels satisfied New Zealand requirements, it would seem that next year, on the basis of the current scale of consumption, about 15m bushels are needed. “Of this quantity, 8.25 m bushels will be required in the South Island to meet milling, feed and seed requirements. On the crop expectation, 8.7 m bushels could be produced in the South Island and on that basis there would not be vast quantities of wheat available for shipmftit from the south to the north—the quantity could be about 0.5 m bushels. The present indications are that any wheat that may have to be shipped would be from points such as Blenheim and Picton, Timaru and possibly Lyttelton, but it is doubtful if any would have to be shipped from further south. “However, everything depends on conditions from now until harvest and until the grain is in the bag and a low yield would mean that little, if any, wheat would have to be shipped from the South Island, but a higher yield would increase the quantity that would have to be shipped," Mr Dunshea said.