CONSERVATIVES FAVOURED

Press, Volume XCVIII, Issue 29021, 9 October 1959, Page 11

CONSERVATIVES FAVOURED

Opinion Polls Show Slight Swing

(N.Z. Press Association —Copyright)

(Rec. 10 p.m.) LONDON, October 8. British voters are today electing the nation’s fifth postwar Parliament, with public opinion polls reporting a last minute swing to the Conservatives.

This small trend to the Right is said by the poll organis.ers to have eaten into the large number of “don’t knows,” who for weeks have been puzzling and worrying political leaders. According to one poll this morning, 40y per cent, of voters said they would vote Conservative, 39 per cent. Labour, 4 per cent. Liberal, 16 per cent said “don’t know,” while the remaining | per cent, supported the minor parties.

Political observers are predicting that the real test for victory will be of the efficiency of the party machines in getting their supporters to the polls. The “sleeping vote” would be almost 10 million strong, as upwards of 24 per cent, of the electorate have failed to vote in each of the four ' General Elections since 1945.

Labour had an overall majority of six) or 1951 (when the Conservatives came back to office v. ith a majority of 17 over the other parties). Polling Times

Voting today is between 7 a.m. (G.M.T.) and 9 pan. (G.M.T.), when counting will begin immediately. Between 10 p.m. (G.M.T.) and 4 a.m. (G.M.T.) tomorrow the results in about 350 constituencies, mainly urban, will be known. The rest, except for those from a few remote areas, will follow between 10 a.m. (G.M.T.) and 5 p.m. (G.M.T.) tomorrow.

The large number of “don’t know’s” unearthed by the polls during this campaign—exceeding 20 per cent, at times—have caused some observers to predict a smaller than usual poll. But the general expectation this morning, with warm weather predicted, is for a high—even record —poll.

A movement of public opinion may be noticeable late tonight or early tomorrow, although it is possible the result will be in the balance until tomorrow afternoon.

A total of 1536 candidates are standing for the 630 seats in the House of Commons. Of these, 625 are Conservatives, 621 Labour 217 Liberal, 18 Communist, and there are 55 other candidates. At the dissolution of Parliament, the Macmillan Government had 343 seats in the House, Labour 281, and Liberals six—a Conservative overall majority of 56. Labour, led by Mr Hugh Gaitskell, need a 2 per cent, swing in their favour throughout the country to gain a majority of one. A 3 per cent, swing would give Labour a majority of 31 in the new House.

Party workers were on hand at voting booths throughout the country when the first of the 35 million voters cast their votes, because of a widespread belief that the more efficient political machine would win the day. Early activity also showed a greater use of cars to take voters to the polls—a service which the parties can now perform, without legal restriction, for the firsttime since 1945.

A 1 per cent, swing to the Conservatives throughout the country would return them to power for a third term of office with a 105-seat majority, and a 3 per cent, swing in favour of Mr Macmillan’s party would see him very secure at Westminster with the majority of 187 seats. Liberal Vote The biggest question posed by today’s poll, however, is the challenge to both parties by the Liberals, who could hold the balance of power in the new House. The Liberals, led by Mr Jo Gfimond, are a particular threat to the Conservatives, as threequarters of their 217 candidates are standing in electorates which voted Conservative in 1955.

A close finish is widely predicted and Mr Macmillan hynself told a meeting last night that there would be a "very narrow margin” between the Conservatives and Labour.

There could thus be a repetition of the 1950 result (when

Spokesmen for both major parties were equally confident that they would benefit from a “sunshine election” and the high poll it would probably bring.