Chance Of Snap Election In Britain

Press, Volume XCVII, Issue 28671, 22 August 1958, Page 11

Chance Of Snap Election In Britain

(Special Correspondent fI.Z.P.A.) LONDON, August 20. The Prime Minister (Mr Macmillan) has left London with his guns for a few days on the Yorkshire moors as the guest of his wife’s nephew, the Duke of Devonshire, at Bolton Abbey, leaving a welter of speculation on the possibility of a snap autumn election. It has been the chief subject for discussion in political circles ever since the publication of the recent Gallup Poll which shows that for the first time in Mr Macmillan’s administration the Government’s stock has risen above that of the Opposition and the Prime Minister’s personal popularity has grown correspondingly. Shortly after the poll figures were published came a statement from Conservative Party headquarters which some commentators have taken as straw in the wind in favour of an autumn election.

This was the announcement that the Conservatives would publish a document on long-term policy about the middle of next month. Although headquarters emphasised that this was to be concerned chiefly with party principles in general and would form a basis for discussion at the annual conference, which takes place in the second week in October, it has been accepted

in several quarters as meaning that it might well be the election manifesto itself. This, of course, has been denied by the Conservatives but there are still many who do not yet seem convinced. The movements of Lord Hailsham, Lord President of the Council and chairman of the Conservative Party have given a slight air of mystery to the situation. He will leave next weekend for Canada where he is to attend a conference of the Canadian Bar Association. He is not expected back in London till September 23—a circumstance which has confused some of those who predict a snap autumn election. Others with more devious mifids are interpreting Lord Hailsham’s absence as a definite indication of Mr Macmillan’s intention. They say it is al] done to catch Labour napping.

The inscrutable Mr Macmillan must be smiling as he walks the moors with the knowledge that the tokens are that he could win an election tomorrow if he wanted to. But does he want to?

His popularity has been slow in coming and a reversal of pubt lie opinion in the Conservatives’ favour, as shown in the poll, must be very encouraging.

Mr Macmillan might be pardoned if he concluded he was never likely to have it so good again but it is not believed he will agree to an election while there Js still much constructive

work to be done and the further consolidation of the Conservatives’ position to be achieved. Those who argue in favour of a General Election cite the Conservatives’ and Mr Macmillan's present popularity and say that the economic climate is now more favourable than at any time during the last three years. They point also to the fact that the Labour Party is • seemingly unable to make any inroads on the Government’s support and recall that even when the Government’s stock was at its lowest Labour showed scarcely any increase in its poll at byelections. Some Conservatives are said to feel that a better opportunity to go to the country may not again’ present itself. There are plenty of arguments against an election. One is that the public attitude is possibly one more of respect than liking, is of recent origin, and might just as easily change. Another is that the Government's present popularity could not be said to rest on any very solid achievement and it has not yet finished the job it said it would do 20 months ago. All in all it might be concluded that the general opinion holds that the margin in favour of the Conservatives as shown by the Gallup Poll is really too slender and the percentage of floating voters—l4—is too big for the Conservatives to risk an autumn election at this stage.

This, it is suggested, is the way the mind of the man on the grouse moors is working.