Cost Of Living May Be Main Issue In British Election

Press, Volume XCI, Issue 27638, 20 April 1955, Page 10

Cost Of Living May Be Main Issue In British Election

(Special Correspondent N.Z.P.A.)

(Rec. 8 p.m.) LONDON, April 18. Until the Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr R. A. Butler) has announced his Budget and the first speeches of the General Election campaign have been made—and they will no doubt be influenced by the Budget —it is difficult to do more than theorise on any particular issues which British political parties may emphasise before polling day. Both the Conservatives and the Labour Party, when producing their election manifestos ranging over the entire field of domestic and foreign affairs, have shown in the past a distinct tendency to seize on one particular point to attract the floating vote. For instance the “unemployment scare” of the 1950 election and the labelling of Sir Winston Churchill as a “warmonger” during the last campaign are two examples. Most famous perhaps and now a matter of history was the Zinoviev letter during the election of the mid-twenties.

Whether this tendency will be repeated during the coming weeks remains to be seen. But it is reasonably certain that both major parties, as in the past, will do their utmost to attract the “floating voter” who has no definite attachment to either.

This being so, there can be a fairly wide selection of subjects that may appeal to the unattached section of the electorate. Few would be prepared to deny today that on the whole, conditions in Britain are better than at any time within the last 20 years. No Gallup Polls It might have been thought that with prosperity (which many fear to be temporary, believing a chill economic wind may blow towards autumn of this year) occurring during a Conservative regime, public opinion polls would have shown a pronounced swing to the Right. It has been one of the features of the last two years that until recently these polls remained much the same as at last General Election. The last Gallup poll published six weeks ago showed there had been a swing—but towards the Liberals rather than the Conservatives. Yet such a swing, if maintained for the election, would favour the Conservatives.

The absence of newspapers has so far prevented publication of further polls. But unless there have been recent changes, it does seem that the Conservatives so far have reaped little increased popularity from the increased prosperity.

Cost of Living One reason for this could be the preoccupation of the public with the high cost of living. This falls particularly heavily on “white collar” workers, whose incomes have not increased by the same percentage as industrial and manual workers since the war and also on people with fixed incomes, including pensioners. The Government has already given some relief to old age and other pensioners and many speculate that Mr Butler may have some welcome news for the professional classes in the Budget. Whether or not he will cheer them, it is reasonably certain that much will be heard of the cost of living during the campaign, with Labour criticising the Government for

increases in the cost of food and the removal of subsidies.

Indeed it may well be that the cost of living, and the national economic complications, which have so far resulted in the increased bank rate and the checking of hire purchase, but which has not yet been felt by the man in the street, except in some parts of Lancashire, will be the main domestic issues of the coming campaign. It is also possible that some emphasis may be directed towards the use and timing of the use of the hydrogen bomb.

And at a rough guess, it seems more than likely that personalities will be discussed in no small measure. Nobody is quite sure, particularly in the absence of the national newspapers, what the public reaction has been to Sir Anthony Eden becoming Prime Minister. Churchill is a household name, and throughout his period of office the beam of publicity spotlighted him while Sir Anthony Eden, Mr Butler and Mr Harold Macmillan, by comparison, were always in the shadows. None has yet come into the full beam and the Left view is that they may be too “true blue” for many floating voters. Some will depend here on the duration of the newspaper strike and also on the presentation of the changed Government when publication begins again. If much of the nonsense sometimes written about Sir Anthony Eden — “suave, debonair Beau Brummell of English politics”—is repeated for Home consumption, it is more than likely to do him harm.

Effect of Press Strike The most interesting imponderable associated with the election at the moment is the absence of the national press. If the strike continues indefinitely, what may be the repercussions? Apathy—or apparent apathy, for the subsequent polling was high -—was a feature of the last two election campaigns in Britain. Would the continued absence of newspapers attract larger attendances at public meetings or would more people huddle round their radio and television sets?

But it is possible that the cause of the absence of the newspapers could aid the Conservatives. If public irritation with the strike is deep and if other strikes now threatened become serious, it could be that many floating voters would regard these strikes as irresponsibility of the left when the country is on a wave of prosperity and a dip seems possible. Another imponderable much discussed until the newspapers disappeared was the internal dispute in the Labour Party. Whether this may balance out the “too true blue” shade of the Conservative leaders can also only be guessed. Judging the temper of the electorate at the beginning of an election campaign is a difficult undertaking—as New Zealanders know only too well. At the moment it is more than usualy difficult in Britain. Both major parties appear confident while the Liberals have some grounds for feeling more cheerful. But 'all have chinks in their armour, which brings us back to the Budget. It may close some while prising others still more open.