BIG WHEAT IMPORTS

Press, Volume LXXXIII, Issue 25249, 30 July 1947, Page 6

BIG WHEAT IMPORTS

5,000,000 BUSHELS \ THIS YEAR

DOMINION’S INCREASING REQUIREMENTS

Nine thousand tons of Australian wheat in bulk has arrived at Auckland. This brings the total importations of wheat into the Dominion so far this year to 90,636 tons, or 3,383,000 bushels. Most of this wheat is for North Island mills.

Further large shipments from Australia are coming. The next consignment will be on the Wellpark. This , ship has just left Dunedin, and she is to bring another 9000 tons, destined for Wellington and South Island ports. In round figures, it is expected that a total of at least 5,000,000 bushels will be imported from Australia this year. At this figure it is not expected that there will be any carry-over. The average price a bushel of wheat imported from Australia last year was 9s This year the cost to the Treasury will be nearly cut in half, the price being 5s 9d a bushel. In 1945 the average cost a bushel was 5s B.Bd, in 1944, 4s 11.8 d, and in 1943, 4s 5.4 d. The price of wheat quoted in Chicago—the only free market in the world—for forward delivery in 1948, is the equivalent in New Zealand currency of 14s a bushel.

New Zealand’s annual requirements of wheat for all purposes have increased . from a pre-war average of 9,500,000 bushels to 11,500,000 bushels, which would require no fewer than 360,000 acres to produce. Last harvest 140,000 acres were devoted to wheat, yielding an estimated return of 5,000.000 bushels.

A Survey of 50 Years An interesting return compiled by the Wheat Committee shows that during the last 50 years there has been no appreciable variation in the 10-yeaK average production. Below is a table showing the average production for each year of four decades:— Bushels; 1901-1910 .. .. 7,045,220 1911-1920 .. .. 6,270.170 1921-1930 .. .. 7,363,520 1931-1940 .. .. 7,583,148

Production for the six years before the war, in comparison with that of the six war years, is as follows: 1934-1939 (inclusive), average acreage 226,220, average yield, 7,100,761 bushels. 1940-1945 (inclusive), average acreage 243,900, average yield 8,167,871 bushels. \

In the last two years, 1946 and 1947, there has been a considerable fall in production. The . cultivation of small seeds is doubtless a factor in the situation, but the story the graphs prepared by the Wheat Committee tell is that, when a spurt is made in production for any reason whatever, the average is invariably adjusted by a decline after the spurt.

Another point is that a survey of production figures from 1900 till now would make it appear that the price of wheat itself is not the main factor in fluctuations in production. Taking the average yearly production over 10-year periods as more or less stationary at approximately 7.000,000 bushels, along with a progressive increase in population, it would appear that New Zealand is definitely committed to increasingly heavy importations of wheat. From 1939 till the end of this year, it is estimated that New Zealand’s population will have increased by 200,000. All these people have to be provided with flour. Meanwhile, gambling on a world shortage of grain next year, operators on the Chicago wheat exchange have boosted the price during the last four weeks, for 1948 delivery, by 21 cents to 2301 cents a bushel equivalent to about 14s in New Zealand currency. ■