Primary Production

Press, Volume LXXXI, Issue 24624, 21 July 1945, Page 6

Primary Production

"It is regrettable that there should “ be just now ”, the Prime Minister said this week in Dunedin, where he was assisting the Labour Party's candidate in the Dunedin North by-election—" regrettable that there “ should be just now so much “ foolish talk about primary produc- “ tion having gone into serious " decline ”. The Prime Minister went on to quote, as “ facts that “should put an end to pessimism”, those ingeniously compiled averages which a few days ago were used by the Minister of Agriculture. The reason why the Prime Minister finds it “regrettable” that declining primary production should be discussed “just now” can only be conjectured. Because a by-election is being contested? Because the Government, after a long recess, is facing fire again in Parliament? Because the farmers, constantly under appeal lor more production, are asking if they can cultivate, sow, and reap with appeals instead of men or milk the cows by appeal? Mr Fraser’s reason may be any or all of these, or any other. It may be, simply, that this talk of declining production on the farms is regrettable because it is well-founded, because it is damaging to the Government, and because it hurts. But whatever the reason why the Prime Minister objects, it is a bad one. This subject ought to be discussed, as fully and frankly as possible. As for the “ foolishness ” of the talk, if it is foolish the Government’s own official publications are a well of folly. The Prime Minister talked of butter-fat. The Official Year Book also talks of butter-fat, and does it without political motive. These are the total butter-fat production figures for the 10 years up to 1943-44, the last available, a line

separating the pre-war from the war seasons: ' Million lb. 1934- *. ~ 409.9 1935- .. .. 425,3 1936- ... .. 442.4 1937- .. .. *419.9 * 1938- .. .. 376.7 1939- .. .. 415.0 1940- .. 448.8 1941- .. .. 422.7 1942- .. .. 391.3 1943- .. .. 387.8 A war-time rise to a peak something higher than that of 1936-37; thereafter, a three-year fall of 61,000,0001b. These are not averages; they are the hard, absolute figures of year-to-year decline. Just as hard are the official figures for total farm production. They show an indexed fall, since 1940-41, of this order: 1940- .. ..116 1941- .. ..11l 1942- .. .. 108 Mr Fraser and Mr Roberts ignore such figures; they prefer long-period averages. Everyone who has amused himself with arithmetic knows that averages are slippery things, and can be deceptive things. And as Mr Fraser and Mr Roberts use them, they are.