THE NEW YEAR

Press, Volume LXXVI, Issue 22908, 3 January 1940, Page 5

THE NEW YEAR

PROSPECTS AND

PRICES

THE CANTERBURY OUTLOOK

| Judged. from ihe purely material standpoint, farmers are entering the New Year with prospects somewhat better than those of a few months ago. The season has improved—an all-im-portant factor in their outlook. In the dairying districts of the North Island ► the feed position is infinitely better than it was last New Year, although there has to be set against this the steady decline in dairy production that a variety of causes has brought about. However, this loss may be offset to an extent by other classes of production. S such as sheep raising. There are indi- . cations, as' a matter of fact, that this '• is the case. There is a big increase in the number of iambs produced this season, and there are also indications of a stronger demand for breeding u ewes. There is no object in entering r into the reasons of this trend, but some satisfaction may be extracted from the fact that all the dairying decline will hot be a complete write-off. Wool, fat lambs,’ and fat sheep should all show i a numerical increase in the north. The * essential of a good feed season to se- . cure these extensions appears fairly | certain. Such was not the case at the " beginning of 1939. The same position in; Southland and in the south- «• ern parts of Otago, where there is an abundance of feed, an increased lamb- ■ ing, and, good crops. Meat and Wool The position has not been so satisfactory in our own province. A hard autumn and winter in both Canterbury and Marlborough provinces has been reflected in a big shrinkage in the lambing. The. last few weeks have brought an improvement in feed pros-pects,--but-these are-still-far frdm satisfactory. . .There will be. fewer lambs to r fatten and less feed to, fatten them with. This scarcity of feed may also mean less mutton fattening, and will operate against the production of the weighty carcases which are so strongly desired by the authorities. The fact that it has been necessary to ration meat in the United Kingdom and that the.British Government is buying large quantities of meat from foreign coun- > tries indicates that all the meat the t Dominion can produce is assured of a prompt outlet;. That seasonal adveri sities should step in and affect that 1 prospect is unfortunate, particularly as it may reduce the-disposal of many of the old ewes which have already re- , mained in many Canterbury flocks too * long-. ■ ■ '■ -The wool, clip of the two provinces will “be lighter; and in assessing the ■ return from the acquisition price this lightness -t--of - „shpuld not toe Ignored.' If the exhortations to supply the maximum meat supplies are complied with, the next season’s clip is not likely to show an increase, except to the extent that seasonal conditions may make it better grown. There will be fewer sheep to shear. The pressing need appears to be for meat,- ' and. within -reason, the Empire heed for food should be paramount., -Cereals and Seeds Cereal crops up till a month ago were distinctly unpromising. Good rains, however, came to the rescue, and the New Year is entered with prospects very- much . brightened. Whilst it is unlikely that wheat yields will reach the average of last decade they .will be decidedly better than the prospects Of a month ago suggested. The additional area -of 70,000 acres will go a good distance towards reducing the quantity that it has been necessary to import in recent years. This is fortunate in view of one, important factor which had little concern to the farmer up till this last two years—the . necessity of reducing importations to save overseas funds? With the price that is to be paid for the ensuing crop, the financial return to growers should substantially exceed the £2,000,000 mark. ■? Oats production will be down rather markedly, and already it has been deemed expedient to' import' Algerian oats to tide over the next sowing season. The comparative failure of the Algerian crop will mean a corresponding reduction in winter feed supplies apart from the inability to market any surplus. The position points to the fact that the country has allowed oats production to decline to a dangerous point. ' The factors which have affected the oats crop apply also to small seeds and to hay. The former, of which Canterbury is the main supplier -in the Dominion, will probably be one of the lightest for years. |The only offsetting factor is a good ryegrass harvest in Hawke’s Bay. There promises to be a full supply of potatoes, the season, so far, suiting this crop to an extent that a good yield appears certain, but at much lower prices than prevailed last year. ■ . . Dairying Dairying production in the province has been on. the decline for some years, and there seems to be little prospect of the decline being recovered, much less arrested. The small number of factories to be seen in the province to-day rather staggers the North Island farm visitor. Increasing city demands are absorbing milk from dis-tricts-which a few years ago were consistently good suppliers to the factories. Except for the Peninsula, where sheep raising has replaced cows to a large extent, and in selected parts of MidCanterbury and South Canterbury, production for export has steadily declined. . For this-development several reasons can be advanced. These reasons have increased in the last two or three- years--rather than declined: ■ ‘ The ‘ Prices ■ The developments of the last few I months have ■ relieved the farmer 'of I one of his main worries—i.e., the price I that he is to receive for his produce. I The return for meat will not enable I him to get rich. The average observer | indeed, cannot help but ponder ,on the ! high prices ruling in Britain fop locally grown meat and those for - meat exported from the Dominion. Fat sheep in England, as was pointed out the other day. be worth an average price of Is per lb; in New Zealand, the average under the acquisition price will be substantially less than a half;. Top grade beef in England is to be worth more than 80s per 1001b; in New Zealand the average is less than half that - figure. Sucking lamb is to be worth in England Is 4d per , lb; our sucking lamb will be return- , ing to the farmer barely half this ! figure. It can only be assumed that ; the prices fixed for Home-grown meat are not exclusively based on war reasons. The New Zealand producer can console himself with the reflection that he is not. exploiting the United King- ' dom in the price he is receiving for his produce. ; , ■ ■Relatively, wool prices are more satisfactory than those of meat. The b 3d per lb increase ■ allowed on the rates of: last year represents an acceptable 1 i improvement, _all. the more so because I I the old premium for fine wool has been < I largely restored. The three northern i

provinces -of the South Island are practically the sole producers of fine wool, and as wool is the main, _if not the sole product of a big _ section of producers in - these provinces, the new prices are working out much more-sat-isfactorily than most producers dared to hope before the appraisals commenced. The lighter fleece, as pointed out, is a factor that has to be taken into consideration as far as the return to the grower is concerned, but taken in all, the values will give the hill man a cheerier outlook. His other main source of revenue, surplus ewes, may again be disappointing, judging by the prices being paid for twotooths in the North Island at present. There are indications of a smaller number of young surplus ewes being available in the autumn. The market for this smaller number will be influenced by the extent to which ; old ewes are sent to the works, and the consequent necessity for “replacement; with young sheep. It is improbable that much consideration will be given this freezing season to thp future standard, of flocks by saving ewe lambs for absorption in them. Lambs are likely to be sent, to the works without consideration of this aspect.

An embargo was recently placed on the export of most of our worth-while small seeds. It had been stated that a shortage was likely to - occur, but other reasons have been advanced scarcely agreeing with this. A restriction on exports will possibly mean that on top of poor crops growers will obtain very indifferent prices, as it does not take anything like our normal seed production to glut the internal demand. ; - However, prices are better, and markets more dependable than they were at this time last season. It is perhaps a sorry fact that this is due to war. Many aspects have developed in his' industry which are calculated to peeve the farmer, but his job is to put up with them and produce all that he can. This is probably only a platitude, but platitudes are popular nowadays.