BIRTH-RATE OF DOMINION

Press, Volume LXXIV, Issue 22389, 30 April 1938, Page 7

BIRTH-RATE OF DOMINION

SIGN OF SLIGHT

RECOVERY

IMPLICATIONS OF LIKELY

DECLINE

MAORI POPULATION HAS

FAVOURABLE TREND

That there are indications of at least some slight recovery in the birth-rate of the Dominion is shown in the annual statistical report on population and buildings, which has now been released by the Government. The report, which covers the 1936-37 period, also points out the serious economic implications of a prospective population decline and shows that the only major change in «ne population trend during the year was that the Maori population is at present increasing more rapidly than the white. The report states:

"The experience of the 1936-37 year may be summed up briefly by stating that it continued on the same lines as its immediate predecessors. For the year ended March 31, 1937, the increase of population was 13,284, equal to 0.84 per cent, of the population nt the beginning of the year. Exclusive of Maoris, the increase was 11,177. The Maori population is at present increasing more rapidly than the white population. "Apart from territorial changes there are only two sources from which increase of population is possible, viz., excess of births over deaths (natural increase) and excess of overseas arrivals over departures (net migration increase). Except in the earliest stages of a country's development or in exceptional circumstances, the former is naturally the more important source. Low Natural Increase "Since 1875, 74 per cent, of the increase in New Zealand's population (other than Maori) has come from excess of births over deaths and 26 per cent, from the net migration increase. In the post-war era, 1921-36, the percentage furnished by natural increase has risen only to 79. and such rise, even, is due to the conversion of a moderate inflow through migration to a small outflow in the year 1931-35. The natural increase ratio was formerly unusually high in New Zealand, the annual average, for instance, reaching 29.41 per 1000 of mean population in the quinquennium 1876-80. The 1936 figure of 7.89 per 1000, the lowest point yet reached in a long decline, speaks for itself. The relatively high rate of natural increase formerly recorded in New Zealand was derived in part from the exceptionally low death rate which was, and still is, the lowest recorded in any country in the world. No further fall in the deathrate to any substantial degree can be anticipated in the future. It may, indeed, be remarked that the age constitution of the population is from this aspect now less favourable than in past years. The birth rate in former years was vastly higher than the present level. For instance, in the five years 1876-80 it averaged 41.21 per 1000 of mean population; in the last five years it has been—l 932. 17.12; 1933. 16.63; 1934, 16.51; 1935, 16.17; and 1936, 16.64. Some improvement was to be expected with the lifting of the depression, and a small recovery was manifest in 1936. If complete returns for 1937 substantiate the indications of interim returns for part of the year, a further slight gain will be recorded. A Time-Lag "There was an apparent natural Increase ratio in 1936 of 7.89 per 1000 of mean population, and this may give a fictitious impression of the present position. Due to the inevitable timelag, a population will for some years continue to advance in total numbers after its reproduction-rate has fallen below a level sufficient to maintain an increasing or a stationary population, assuming a constant fertility and mortality. For some years attention has oeen drawn in this report to this aspect, and. it was stated that if this stage had not already been reached in New Zealand it was close at hand if the trend continued. The 1936 census gave accurate figures of the age constitution of the population and enabled a closer inspection of the position. It is clear that the conditions existing in 1936 were those of a declining population. Using the 1936 census data for ages of females, the 1936 record of births, and a 1931 New Zealand life table, a net reproduction rate was computed and gave a value of only 0.967. A rate below unity means a population which must decline (although a time-lag may intervene) if existing conditions are maintained. An even lower -value would have resulted from computations based on 1934 or 1935 data. The foregoing, of course, does not take into consideration potential gains or losses from. migration, and also, as stated, omits Maoris, who are steadily increasing in numbers. Signs of Recovery

"It is important to note also that the decline of population referred to is subject to the maintenance of the then existing conditions. There are certain indications of at least some recovery in the birth rate and a sustained recovery of sufficient magnitude would afford a remedy. A prospective decline at hand in the total population is sufficiently serious in itself, particularly as much of the Dominion's economy is based on an expanding population. Internal changes in age constitution, resulting from the fall in the birth rate, also entail serious consequences. The movement of population to the higher age-groups has very widespread effects. An examination of 1936 census age statistics shows that (omitting Maoris) there were 50,304 more persons over age 60 than ther,e

were in 1926. On the other hand, there were actually 22,100 fewer children under age 10 in 1936 than there were in 1926. Apart from possible gains from immigration-or losses from emigration, diminished numbers must result in future years in the age-groups comprising those in active occupations. Thus, for example, In 20 years' time there will be more than 20,000 fewer persons aged 20 to 24 years than there were of those ages in 1936. Accompanying reduced numbers in the working years of life will be enhanced numbers at ages past the normal working span. Migration Laws

"The second source of population increase—viz., gain from migration—is of much less significance. The net migration figures, exclusive of Maoris, recorded a loss of population of 399 for the March year, 1936-37, and a gain of 727 for the calendar year. Durin" each of the last six years economic conditions have occasioned a . small exodus of population. This has occurred previously in 1888, 1890, aqd 1891 during a similar major depression. The following analysis of migration increase affords an interesting comparison with the years immediately preceding the war (figures quoted are annual averages):—

"Since May. 1827, the scheme of governmental assistance to immigrants has been temporarily suspended, except in regard to • certain classes of immigrants."

ition [ Assisted ts). £ -52 c CO .ssss 73 O 2 ffe 6o«.a « ga , g& <-<" CU.2 '2 hi JIM'S >'5i E t Mign rease ] iisted L iving. 0. fi£c.5S Nei Inc Ass arri 1909-13 .. 7095 3479 3616 1920-24 .. 9683 7549 2134 1925-29 .. 6571 5808 763 1930-34 .. —561 396 i-957 1935-36 .. —828 5 —833