The Press SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26, 1936. The Threat From Germany

Press, Volume LXXII, Issue 21975, 26 December 1936, Page 10

The Press SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26, 1936. The Threat From Germany

Paris and Berlin correspondents of “ The “ Times,” the “ News-phronicle,” and the “ Manchester Guardian ” seem agreed that Germany will shortly precipitate another European crisis; and it must be admitted that the external signs justify their expectations. For both economic and military reasons, German policy is entering a very dangerous phase. It is generally supposed by foreign experts that within the next 12 months Germany’s rearmament programme will place her in a position of definite military superiority over France. After this point has been reached, however, the French rearmament programme will be under way and the balance between the two countries should be fairly rapidly redressed. It is therefore apparent that Germany is close to the point at which her European influence will be at its maximum. In other words, if the German Government wants to run risks in foreign policy, the time to run them is in the next few months. And the indications are that risks will have to be taken and something spectacular achieved in the diplomatic field in order to distract the attention of the German people from internal economic distress. Despite the suppression of all the more significant economic statisics, the German Government has not been able to hide from the outside world, much less from its own citizens', the decline that is taking place in real wages and in the consumption of such important foodstuffs as eggs, milk, butter, and animal fats. A year ago the German people were willing enough to make sacrifices which, they were assured, would be only temporary; now they are beginning to realise that, although the first stage of the rearmament programme is reaching its conclusion, the prospect of higher wages and better food is further off than ever. This state of affairs was less dangerous to the stability of the National Socialist regime while it could be shown that in the neighbouring democratic countries of France, Switzerland, and Holland little or no progress was being made towards economic recovery. But in all these countries currency devaluation, assisted by the dollar-franc-pound agreement, is now producing a visible amelioration of economic conditions. The cßnclusion is being forced upon Germans that their poverty is connected with their form of government. Herr Hitler, it is true, has declaimed caustically against the “ dishonesty ” of currency devaluation; but, as most Germans are aware, Dr. Schacht was in Paris a few months ago seeking an agreement which would enable Germany herself to devalue with safety. The opportunity for such an agreement existed; it was lost because the German Government, overestimating the strength of its position, attempted to extort political concessions from France as the price of freer trade. The relevance of the German Government’s renewed demand for colonies to this situation is immediately apparent. Germany’s lack of colonies can be made the basis of a false yet plausible explanation of why Germany is short of raw materials and why food imports have to be rationed so severely. And if the German Government succeeds in browbeating the powers into granting it concessions of colonial territory, its prestige will be safe for a further period. In Great Britain, where popular thinking on foreign affairs is strongly coloured by sentimentality, there is much support for the idea that Germany should be given back at least some of her former colonies. In France, on the other hand, it is felt that no such concession should be made unless Germany is prepared to modify her rearmament programme. There is very little to be said for giving Germany colonies either as a gesture of goodwill or as a means of bribing her into a more pacific frame of mind. Colonial expansion can solve none of Germany’s problems, and a grant of territory at this moment will merely encourage in Germany the belief that armaments have won a peaceful victory. The best service that Great Britain and France can render to the German people and to the cause of European peace is to seek an economic agreement which will enable Germany to trade more freely. Any other method of easing the pressure is a palliative which makes the final catastrophe more certain.