Another Wool Substitute

Press, Volume LXXII, Issue 21967, 16 December 1936, Page 10

Another Wool Substitute

The report from New York that the Dupont chemical interests have perfected a cellulose wool substitute from which can be woven cloths equal to the finest merino fabrics will be received with mild scepticism. There have been many, such reports in recent years; and invariably it is discovered either that the new fibre is in fact inferior to wool or that costs of manufacture are too high. This does not mean, however, that wool growers can afford to neglect the possibility that the consumption of wool will be seriously affected by the competition of substitutes. It is clear that, although revolutionary discoveries have not taken place and need not be anticipated, the quality of the various substitutes in use is being steadily improved by intensive research. This progress has been reflected in a rapid rise in consumption. In 1922 the world production of rayon was 78,000,0001b; in 1930 it was 426,400,0001b; and in 1935 it was 966,380,0001b. It is true that the competition of rayon has affected cotton to a much greater extent than wool and that there is even some ground for supposing that in some countries its use for blending has widened the market for wool. But it is also true that, as Dalgety and Company point out in their latest wool review, "the whole textile industry is watching the " staple fibre position very closely, and the day " when synthetic textiles will tend to oust the " natural fibres from many uses may be much " nearer than is generally believed." The action of the British Government in 1934 in first lowering and then abolishing the excise duty of 6d per lb on staple fibre provided an interesting test of the market. Consumption expanded threefold within a year; and although the effect of this on wool consumption and prices cannot be gauged with any exactness it is fairly clear that the expansion was partly at the expense of wool. In the past it has been usual to assume that the competitive effect of rayon on wool is similar to the competitive effect of margarine on butter, an increase in the price of the natural product bringing about an increased consumption of the substitute. But it would be unwise to assume that this flexible relationship between v/00l and wool substitutes will persist. For example, Japan's trade dispute with Australia has compelled her to pay a high price for her wool this season, with the result that the production of staple fibre in Japan is being rapidly increased. It is not likely that, if the trade dispute with Australia is adjusted and prices become more reasonable, the production of staple fibre in Japan will decline again. Wool has become, for Japan, a strategic raw material; and dependence on imported supplies has become, in the eyes of the military leaders, a serious national weakness. It is therefore likely that the next few years will see a forced development of the staple fibre industry in Japan under some form of State supervision. What is likely to happen in Japan has already happened in Germany anc. Italy under the stimulus of economic nationalism. Italy's production of staple fibre rose from less than 1,000,0001b in 1930 to more than 66,000,0001b in 1935, while in Germany over the same period production rose from 5,500,0001b to 30,000,0001b. The two factors which will mainly determine the future of wool in the face of competition from artificial fibres are freedom of trade and research. The staple fibre industry is the child of economic nationalism and will grow as trade restrictions grow. It follows that a return to freer trade can do more than anything else to promote the consumption of wool. Fortunately the importance of research to wool growers and manufacturers is being increasingly appreciated. The rayon industry, owing its development so largely to scientists, has always had the benefit of intensive research and the most modern

methods. Although the woollen industries are only beginning to make up leeway, they are making it up fast.