JAPAN’S GREAT PROBLEM

Press, Volume LXXII, Issue 21907, 7 October 1936, Page 4

JAPAN’S GREAT PROBLEM

INDUSTRIALISATION THE SOLUTION

DANGER OF ECONOMIC PRESSURE

DUTIES • OF BRITAIN AND AMERICA

Japan has found the only solution of her internal- problem in complete industrialisation, but if any form of economic sanctions is applied to cut off her supply of raw materials or markets she will carry' her aggressive policy to the extremes In guarding against this the duty of protection in the Pacific lies in co-trusteeship which should be recognised by Great Brit..in and America as their responsibility. These observations were the basis of an address by Mr Frank Milner, last night in the Caledonian Hall to the Royal Empire Society and members of the public. For collective security throughout the wprld, complete reorganisation of the _>eague of : iNations was required, he ssid, out that would take from 40 to 50 The solution of the need for a shott-term policy lay in the recognition of their responsibilities as co-trustees by Great Britain and America- * Last year 2,100,000 babies were born in Japan, Mr Milner said, and the net increase in population was ■ 1,000,000. At present the population of Japan proper was 68,000,000, and of greater Japan 100,000,000. of these figures, her great potential driving force, and her aggressive policy she attracted the greatest attention in the pacific to-day. , .. . Mr Milner traced the recent history of Japan up to her entry into the comity of nations. In 1921 Britain had to choose between America and Japan, and she chose the former.. That was regretted by many, but it was a wise and far-sighted move, for although America had taken little action m recent years she remained a co-trustee of democracy, and would be forced into the same orbit as Britain in, the defence of liberalism and individualism. America and Britain had a common culture and inheritance in the law of England, ‘‘and they will win through in spue of shipping subsidies and war debts," Mr Milner remarked. If I did not believe that they . would buttress democracy ana civilisation I would have little faith in the future. Stalemate Was Possible On the other hand, Japan’s participation with the allies had probably decided the fate of Pacific countries during the Great War. If Japan had allied with Germany the latter nation would have had assured naval stations in the Pacific, and the war would possibly have ended in a stalemate. “She might have spoilt the whole game for British communities in the Pacific, he Sfiid Mr Milner traced the history of the naval conferences, the decreasing ratio imposed on Japan by Britain and America, and the renouncement of those agreements this year. “If representative men met together as at the Washington Conference in 1921. when we were reconciled to war m the Pacific, and make such an agreement that the, war did not happen, such statesmanship would do well to-day. Japan' now' had a navy and array of enormous strength, and although her air force was not very strong, it was difficult to find another nation with such dogged determination. Her greatest problem was the growing population with the consequent economic reactions. ’.There were only four ways of absorbing that population. . The first of these was . emigration, but Japan was not an emigrating nation. The thought fostered by so many that the Japanese would swarm into New Zealand was a myth, for there were not more than 650,000 nationals outside the mother land. They wanted to consolidate close to Japan, and that solution was therefore a failure. Already Manchuria had a Chinese population of 30,000,000, who had flowed north from the northern provinces of China, and that population was formidable. Intensive Cultivation

Already Japan was at saturation point in intensive scientific cultivation, the second possible solution. The average farm was nine-tenths of an acre, compared With 16 acres in Denmark, Europe’s most intensely cultivated country. Two million farmers in Japan had less than two acres each. "That makes us understand the pressure on her borders,” Mr Milner said. “Their eyes are now on Siberia and China proper.” Extremely antagonistic to any form of birth control, the Japanese \frere a child-loving people, and there was therefore no solution .on those lines in the immediate future.-

The only possible line of action had been taken, and Japan was now completely ir dustrialised. She had displaced Britain for three years as the greatest exporting nation of cotton goods. The motivation was the terrific population urge. They must find work for 250,000 more workers each yean until 1950. when it was estimated that the population would stabilise at 80,000,000. The marvellous capacity for rationalisation and the dexterity of the workers in the mills put them ahead of other nations. The talk of their poor living conditions was largely groundless, for those who had lived in the cc entry were, much better off in the factories, although their standard of living was riot comparable with that of any British country. * In her drive for raw materials Japan had acquired all the mines in Malaya, but she had to buy her oil from Borneo and America, and her raw cotton from India * and America.

“Biding Her Time”

Having nationalised Manchukuo, Japan now sought to organise the five northern states of China, but she had had little success as yet. She was also engaged in many difficulties with Soviet Russia, particularly in her desire for Outer Mongolia. “There is no doubt that she is biding her 'time,” said Mr Milner, “and when the European crisis comes she will drive into China.,where she will find ample manpower for her army, raw materials and a generous market.” Although the Institute of Pacific Relations at its last conference had found no possibility of regional security in the Pacific and had broken up in despair, the situation was not necessarily hopeless. China had refused to join any pact until Japan withdrew from Chinese territory, and Japan refused to join until her presence in China was recognised. Britain and America had a’so had their reasons. “Only an agreement of Englishspeaking nations for economic sanctions will bring Japan to heel,” he said. “There is one stabilising feature —Japan’s dependence on Borneo and America for her oil and on India and America for her cotton. It would be quite possible by economic sanctions to bring Japan to heel. With her armaments' and industrialisation she has got herself in such a position that she can make war on other countries, but they cannot make war on her.” "Whatever form of collective security is adopted it will take between 40 and 50 years. In the meantime we must be in with America as co-trustee of the autonomous comtiunities of the Pacific. If we deny finance, aimatoents and raw materials to the aggressor named by the league, we could pull her down to the required level, and that is the shortterm policy which we must have,”