THE CAMPAIGN IN WELLINGTON.

Press, Volume L, Issue 15138, 30 November 1914, Page 8

THE CAMPAIGN IN WELLINGTON.

- AX OPPOSITION LANDSLIDE 1 " (sPEdjir, to "the rr.v.ss."} - i WELLINGTON. November :?5. t J All the "Wellington candidates have - j now addressed public meetings, and sc ? j tar as this district is concerned it is I j now possible to form an estimate of the \ j probable result of the elections. That 3 j estimate, however carefully it is gone . j into, leads to the conclusion that the :• | Opposition will meet with a regular • landslide at the coming polls. From ' Pahiatua on the oi:o hand and Wanganui on the other down to Wolling- : ton South, there are fifteen seats, and > of all these the Opposition is not likely !to win moro than iwo. A careful [ analysis of the position inclines mc to . the opinion that on the declaration of • the polis the result will be as follows: Government ... Ii? Opposition ... ... i> Labour ... ... J This may seem an optimistic conclu- • sion from a Government standpoint, but , in view of present circumstances it is ' not so, as 1 shall prcently prove. At last election the Wardites won only two of those fifteen seats. Labour won three, and tho Massey party won no fewer than ten. But at last election tho Massey party was in the cool shades of Opposition; it was the undei dog in tho fight. It is now in power and over since the defeat of the Ward party at tho polLs the rising tid > oi Reform has been flowing onwards, )..;rc sweeping away an Oppositionist, there lifting a Reformer on tho :»i;i»-aci.» of success. . Thcro nave been three by-elec-tions, and in every instance tho Wardist candidate has been swept side. Two seats in strongly '-Liberal" constituencies have been wrested from the "Liberals" by Social Democrats, and the other (recently occupied by a Prhno Minister) has been won by the Massey candidate. Rut that is not all. Iti the strongly Liberal seats of Grey and Lytteiton there has been a huge turnover of votes in-favour of Mr Massey. There is still another point to remember in forecasting the present issun. namely, that tho onrush of cho /'s:n% tide of Reform has been intensified l.y the strike and the splendidly courageous manner in which it was luindled and tho country ivas saved by the Massey Administration. There can bo little doubt that if a gcnqral election had been held soon after the strike, the! Massey party would have swept (he polls. But nowadays when wo are making much history events march quickly, and people arc apt in the peril of the present to forget what peril th-jy have been rescued from in iho fast There was some danger that tho strike and the courageous action of tho Government might have been overlooked in tho present European crisis, but the alliance of the Opposition and tho Red Feds., together with the attempt of tue two to howl down Ministers and prevent their getting a hearing at pnb'ic meetings, has forced it into the very forefront of the fight. Tho electors are remembering again tho meaace- of the past and thinking of-;the menace of the future, should a Government which would bo at the beck and call of tho Red Feds, be roturaed to powir. Thero is yet another tbar- is weighing with the average elector: it is the successful handling of tho finaw-c and the general administration of the Dominion during a period of -stro-s and strain altogether unique in its history. Having dealt with tho general phase of tho question, let us consider the electorates in detail. The East Coast seats at present hold by tho Government arc quite safe. Wo then come to Wanganui, which is one of tho seats that under present circumstances tho Government should win. Mr Voitch, who condemned tho Ward-Administra-tion at last election, and thereby secured a considerable section of the Reform vote, now stands revealed in his true colours, and apparently has lost ground. In Mr Pirani he has a redoubtable opponent on the Reform side, while Mr Hogan, whom Mr Veitch ousted at last election, has again entered tho lists. Ho will take from Mr .. Voitch a considerable section of tho Liberal vote, which the latter was depending upon, and also a section of the Labour vote. Under tho changed circumstances Mr Pirani should win the scat. Coming to the oiher West Coast seat (Otaki), we find much discontent with Mr Robertson's attitude as a political pledge-breaker. A great many who voted for him on tho second ballot were disappointed that he should have cast his vote in favour of tho Ward Government. This action will cost him many votes. Ho is being opposed by Mr W. H. Field, tho former member, who can no longer see his way to support. Sir Joseph Ward, and 'who has declared straight out in favour of Mr Massey. Mr Field 'has retained flio i support of nearly all his old friends in the constituency, and as he will have - added to their votes the votes of tho f Reform Party, he should win the seat ' Mr Field only lost the seat last time * by 21 votes. ] In the other country seats thero promises to be litle change. Waimarho is likely to he won by Mr It. W. Smith ; (Opposition), who has not a strong man against, him. The only other seat the * Opposition seems likely to win is 'the ~ Butt. But even here the situation has altered, and a. change has conic over i. the spirit of Mr Wilford's dream. Just "< at present he is having no time for ° "flying squadron" work, and his opponeat, Mr wimucl, is keeping him very l busy; indeed, Mr .Samuel's friend's c think that their candidate will win. '? At last olection the vote was split np 1 iinoiig four candidates, Mr Wilford I polling a majority of 139 of the votes • :ast, but many Oppositionists, not b*>- c "ng satisfied with their candidate, lid lot vote at all. * In Wellington itself, everyone a "Tees :hat Mr Ilerdman is absolute!v 'safe. ° Or. Newman appears to have "gained r ;round sinco last olection, and hi.-foppo- J 1 lent, Mr David McLaren, who is bcin-' " upported by both "Liberals" and R«d q r eds., is not being received with much * mihuszasm. J i I ? ir V \ olli "£ ton lSout » tho issue -s c oubtful. Mr J. P. Luke (the Mayor) ° loos not seem to be making the best ' »f his campaign, and present indica- r }ons are that the seat will <r 0 to Mr * Lr.dmarsh the Labour member, who t present holds it; that is, unless the £ ™ l V o *? tel]s in favour of Mr Luke. fl Ihe Suburbs seat should be won by * Ir R. A. Wright for Reform, especial- w v as in this case the Liberal-Labour ° ■oto is being split by two very deter- w mned candidates. * n ereat contest of the election will a £ -Vtr iMsher versus Mr Fletcher, for » Neilnigtori Central, and the Onpos;ion have mad e tremendous efforts to b ust tho Minister of Marine. I cannot a D 0 Y°*i x t} l ey aro Soing to do it. Thero > ; abwluteJy no comparison between P f r- l lt7 i? f tllo two candidates, and & lr I'lshex has gained ground, whereas a Ir IMetcner seems to have lost it. This tl sme .Mr fisher has a much stronger ti ommrUee at work on his behalf, and c is meeting with every encourage- e< lent and support. It is admitted, how- is ver, the seat which is a hcihwl c! f Red Fedism, is one of the most diffl- f< ult in the Dominion for a Reform mdidate to win, and the combination j i]

> Co-7i>» . of Wardists and Red Feds, is fighting the battle with grim determination. Nevertheless, I expect to _ec 3lr Fisher ' win.