THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTIONS.

Press, Volume LXVI, Issue 13906, 3 December 1910, Page 9

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTIONS.

TO TIIE EDITOR OV "THK PRESS." Sir, —There is a widely-spread hope hero that at the approaching elections Mr Baliour may have a working majority. Permit mo to suggest how very slight is the chance of this expectation being realised. Treat Mr Asquith's present "motley host" as giving him a majority of li!O. Mr B'alfour must win 80 seats to give him a maof 40. Where is this 80 to come from? Not from Scotland, Ireland or Wales. Therefore, necessarily, if at all, from England. Now, that the English constituencies, in geographical groups— (1) South and South \Vest; Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Gloucestershire, Wilts, Dorset, Hants, Berks, Oxford, and Bucks. The present j Conservative holding in these 74 seats is 47, and they will DO lucky if they continue to hold North Wilts and Gloucester city. (2) The Home Counties, Sussex, Surrey, Kent, Essex, Middlesex, and Hertford. The Liberals only hold 4 of these (50 seats) and can scarcely hold less. (3) London at present is almost evenly divided between the two parties, the Liberals holding 29 out of 56 seats. London is violently interested neither in tariff reform nor the House of Lords, and at present does not appear frightened at the Budget or Mr Lloyd George's vapourings. John Burns is likely to be defeated at Battersea, and it is instructive to note that there is no Liberal candidate for the erstwhile world-famous Liberal constituency, "The City of London." If Conservatives expect London to turn over to them, I fear they are likely to be disappointed. (4) East Anglia: Suffolk, Norfolk, Lincoln, Cambridge, Bedford, Huntington, Lincolnshire. In this "Cromwellian" part of England the Liberals can still claim 22 out of 41 seats. They may lose Peterborough, King's Lynn, Great Grimsby, and the Rev. Mr Home's seat at Ipswich. (5) The Midlands: Possibly the Birmingham influence is still extending, but I doubt it. Mining and other industrial influences are an equal force the other way. The Liberals hold 36, the Conservatives 42 seats, and I anticipate another ding-dong fight throughout the Midlands. (6) The Welsh Border: Monmouth, Hereford, Cheshire, and Salop. The same remarks apply: the Conservatives hold 12 out of 22 seats. I do not for one moment believe they •will sweep Cheshire. (7) The Industrial North: Unless Tariff Reform can persuade the Lancashire cotton trade, what, hope have the Conservatives of winning many seats P They hold 34 eeats, the "motley host" 101. The North has co many bones to piok with Mr Balfpur. Manchester, Salford, and Lancashire generally are free traders. The miners are against the House of Lords—political and legal. No doubt wo shall win some seats, but we certainly may lose Stalybridge (just in Cheshire), Preston, Sunderland, and York City. No. I think if Mr Balfour can stand where he is; with a strong minority following of about 270, he will bo able to stem the worst of the tide, but that the present combination of Homa Rulers, Labour members, and Scotch and Welch Radical, will fail to obtain a majority, I do not myself believe. I can only say that I sincerely hope I am wrong, ana we all know how dangerous it is to prophesy. Personally, I think we Conservatives will lose a few seats on balance. On Monday night we shall all know a good deal more. What possesses Mr Asquith to annoy all the shopkeepers of -the country by a December election, which also means fighting on a stale register. I cannot think; but he must see other advantages in such a step for the date is his choice, lours, etc., G. M. BUTTERWORH.