WHEAT AND OATS—A RETROSPECT.

Press, Volume LXV, Issue 13364, 4 March 1909, Page 6

WHEAT AND OATS—A RETROSPECT.

Canterbury as aji agricultural district is pre-eminently a wheat producer. Three-quarters of all the wheat growi in Ximv Zealand comes from this province. The remainder comes principally from Otagb. That province, with Southland, however, enjoys the distincj 1 -i of producing two-tliirds of the' Dominran's oat suppjiiee, Canterbury contributing almost all tine remainder. Ifc is interesting to examine the many and varied fluctuations which have occurred in tho oreal nia-rkets of Canterbury. To a groat number of peoplo these fluctuations spall "good times" or dull ones, though, perhaps this was more the case in those ''early days" wihcn farmers put their eggs in fewer baskets than, they do at present. Before the era of freezing works, and of butter and cheese factories, wheat and oats, together with wool, were the great and practicalily the only staple products of Canterbury. Tlbe present is, moreover, an opportune tame to take a glance at the chequered fortunes of tihose cereals, for at the present moment the wheat market is in an unsettled condition, wihilo oats have- touched a level happily seldom experienced in the annals of New Zealand agriculture.

Tho palmy days of wheat-Browing, so fa.r as price, and not yield, was concerned, were in the ''sixties." From 1860 to 1870 wheat averaged 6s per bushel, tho highest average cnnual price during that decade being Sβ 8d in 1864, and the lowest 3s 5d in 186?. During the next decade wheat averaged 'is 6d per Jbushol, tlhe highest average annual price being 6s per bushel in 1877, while 3s 9}d obtained in 1870 was the lowest. From 1880 to IS9O the average annual price suffered a further decline to 3s 9d per buSheJ, during which time the average annual price rose as high as 4s 3}d in 1882, but fell as low ss 2s llidi in 18S5.

During the "nineties'- , wheat continued to decline in price, averaging only 3s 4Jd per bushel—that decade including annual averages so far apart as 4s 3Jd in 1897. and 2s 6Jd in 1891. From 1900 to 1903 the decline erased, whe-at again averaging 3s 4id per bushel, the highest annual price being 4e 7sd last lear, and the lowest 2s 5d in 1901. The prices quoted are for prime wheat of the best quality.

Oats for their part have been subject to fluctuations scarcely less violent. From 18G0 to 1870 their average annual price was 4s per bushel, being as high os 5s 7Jd in 1863 (wheat then averaged only os 7d), and as low as 2s 3d in ISG3. This useful cereal never again saw such glerious days, for diuring the "seventies' , it averaged only 2s lid per bushel, 4s 6d in 1874 and Is 6id in 1576 marking the limits of its H:iciu-a,cion.s during the decade. From 1330 to 1390 its average price declined to 2s Id psr bushel, with annual flnctnations as far epart as 2s IOJd and Is Sd. D-uring tho •■nineties" thero was a further decline, the

average price over those ten years being only Is lid per bushel, though the annual fluctuations from 2s 6jd in 1593 to lc» "d in IS9o vrero lc\s vioknt than during any pr.v.-iai:s dtxadf. From ItCO lo VJOH tbo avcrapo anii'.ial prito reso ;o 2> Id, the highest average for any one year being 2s 5Jd last

year, end the lowest Is 6Jd in 1904, being indeed the lowest average annual pricj? (save that of 1876) in the history of New Zealand. Judging by present prices only, 1909 threatens to establish a now record in the price of oats. From the foregoing figures jt will beseen that -wheat, and oats have fluctuated along parallel lines. Both declined steadily, decade by decade, till the end of the century. In both the decline was less rapid and the fluctuations less violent as the end of the century approached. In both, again, the decline ceased with the new century, and an upward tendency made itself apparent. To make the parallel stui more complete the longest period of depressed prices which wheat suffered corresponded exactly with that which oats suffered, viz., the years IS~9, 1900, and 1901. During that period, which must be remembered with bitterness, wheat averaged only 2s 6d per bushel and oats only Is 9d. It is to be hoped that the present low price of oats i.s merely temporary, and that it will soon revert to such a figure as will leave the farmer a reasonable margin of profit. In a future issue we may investigate some of the causes and effects or these fluctuations.