THE WHEAT YIELD.

Press, Volume LXIII, Issue 12851, 9 July 1907, Page 7

THE WHEAT YIELD.

THE DEPARTMENTAL STATISTICS

DEFENDED.

Some criticisms on the Agricultural

Department's grain crop statistics and estimates formed tho subject of a , epecial article in "The Press" on Saturday. Theso criticisms emanated, as was irtated, from persons interested in the grain trade, and they tended to show that the Departmental estimate of tho "apparent surplus of wheat had iißually been too high, and was likely to bo again too high this year. In conversation with a "Prosti" reporter yesterday, a well-informed critic brought forward sewn© considerations on the othor side. He made special reference to a table given in tho articlo referred to, and purporting to show 'ciehcionciea in. stocks, g-xxwmng to farmers-' own returns, in October of each year, as compared •nth tho Departments estimates based on the threshing returns.'' This table covered a eoritji* ot six years, in each of, which tlio Departmental estimate of th« surplus had exceeded tho actual stocks as returned. Our iiiiormant pointed out that, though the tabie began with the year 1900, it omitted 1001, iv which year the error was on the other side, the Departments eirtimuto being too low. Ho added that if the examination had been carried further back, other instances of the like character would have been found. Then, in rega-rd to the year 1906, in which the deficiency was given as 2,33-1,409 bushels, he pointed out that this was tho first year of the potato blight, which accounted, as stated by the tieortstary for Agriculture- in his annual report, for an additional coiir . (sumption oi two million bushel* of wheat. Another factor to bo considered -was that the Octobor returns of the tanners, by which the surpluses were checked, did not includo tho wheat which they had in Btor© for household and farm use, and which probably totalled, for the colony, some 300,000 bushels. Nor did they includo flour stocked by other householders. These items wero included in the Government estimates, and helped to swell the v figures. ;' It wna also contended by our informant that errors in the estimates of the annihil surplus did not prove that tho Department's rot urns or the tictuol yields wero wrong. The *urplu.« depended upon tho consumption, and that was impossibjo to forecast accuratoly, or to measure. The development of every branch of farming, for instanco, from dairying to, poultrykeeping, and the supply and cost* of "all other footstuffa, was bound to nffect tho consumption of wheat. The Department takes six bushels per head of the population as a rough average, mini does not profess to tako into hciccunt Iho -chances of the potato disease, the export price of bacon, oi tho growth of the poultry industry. But nil such factors, it was contonded, wliile'they affect tho future consumption, have nothing to do w'lh the report on the production of a season thut has closed. Our informant felt certain that, taken altogether, the Department's figures, both in returns and estimates, generally erred on tho _>ido_of caution, and wero, all things considered, a little below the mark.