THE SHADOW OF WAR.

Press, Volume LVI, Issue 10238, 6 January 1899, Page 5

THE SHADOW OF WAR.

CONTINUED ANGLO-FRENCH TENSION. SOME INTERi-STING DISCLOSURES. (FROM OUR OWN CORRESPONDENT.) LONDON, November 25. A remarkable disclosure was made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer during a speech delivered at Edinburgh the night before last. And what made it all the more remarkable was the curious fact that it was identical with oue which I made to my New Zealand readers nearly a year ago.

Much has been heard of late about England's "feverish preparations" for war. I have pointed out more than once that there has been no "feverish" haste at all, all the "preparations" having been begun three years ago, and virtually completed months back, so that all remaining to be done when the Fashoda crisis aroso with such apparent suddenness was .to set in motion the vast machine which had long been constructed aud ready. In short, all that had to be done was to mobilise. And what has been done since the Fashoda trouble arose has been simply mobilisation, although, as a matter of course, our normal course of preparedness for cHraergencios still goes on steadily aud always will. But there is no special "preparation" now. That was all done long ago, as I informed you at the time, and very thoroughly done too.

I have often thought that I was putting a severe strain \ipon the faith of my "readers in asking them to accept my unsupported assurance of what was being done so secretly, and yet on so vast a scale, especially as not a syllable of infornvttion on the subject could be found in any of the British or foreign newspapers. Nevertheless I was sure of my facte, and to the intelligent, reader, once placed in possession of these faefe, every day's events conveyed circumstantial corroboration. All the same, lam glad to have my individual statement so absolutely corroborated as it was by Sir Michael Hicks-Beach on Wednesday night.

This is what he suid:—"The newspapers tct'd the story of great naval preparations, and I saw it stated that these preparations cost millions. What was the fact? The preparations were made, everything was got ready, but the real fact was that everything w<ts ready before. I trust lam within the mark in sayinp- that the naval preparations » cost no more than a few thousand "ounds— mainly incurred in the cost of the coal necessary to bring together special service squadrons from their separate ports. What happened in 1885, when Mr Gladstone -obtained a vote of credit for eleven millions? These millions were wasted and squandered, because nothing was ready. Let us compare in military matters the extravagant cost ol Lord Napier's Abyssinian campaign, and the cost of those futile campaigns for the relief of General Uordonj with the campaign which Lord lutchener hud brought to a close. We have a modern General studying economy as well as efficiency. We might depend upon it there was no greater truth than this: if we wished peace we ought to prepare for war." That is exactly what I told you with elaborate and specific detail in March last, and in general terms even earlier. And the reason why all that was done was that when the Soudan expedition was so suddenly and mysteriously put in hand, having Dongolav as its modest objective, the Salisbury Government had learned that France was devising a coup for the seizure of the Upper Nile and for forestalling us at Khartoum. Itwas then fixedly resolved to resist this to the utmost of the strength of the British Empire, and so due and full preparation was mode.

It was absolutely decided that should France, through any device, succeed in getting first to Fashoda.or Khartoum and shouHd refuse to budge, war should instantly be declared against her, and that an immediate naval attack should be made upon the coast of France herself, and upon all the chief French possesions, with the utmost power of the whole British Empire. And you may take my word for it—if you can—that this would have been done. Everything, as I told you in March, was in readiness. A complete plan of action had been drawn up, and every naval and military chief knew what he had to do. Never before in the entire course of her history was England so thoroughly prepared at all points to deal a sudden and crushing blow. How nearly w-- necessity arose I I imp-* pose nobody yet realises how narrow was the shave by which war was escaped. Do you know that an ultimatum had actually been - sent by Great Britain to France, giving *-»o latter just twelve hours in which to make up her mind whether she would yield on the Fashoda question or fight? Yes: this is the fact. And the British Government had decided to declare war inst-uitly against France in twelve hours from the delivery of the tUtima/tum unless a favourable replyshould have been previously received. This turns out to have been the true reason why the German Kaiser so suddenly and inexplicably cut short his tour in Palestine and returned homeward. The secret has only 4 just leaked out, but the facts appear to be incontrovertible. Happily, sane and wise counsels prevailed in Paris over the silly vapounngs 01 ignorant and exerted writers. The matter wae kept strictly secret, and the nS. Government nrudentlv gave way. They had good reason! No country whs ever more utterly unprepared to meet a sudden and tremendous naval attack than France was then; I might almost say, is now. Even !hsr unpreparedness in 1870 for the war with Germany was as nothing in comparison. Even the French themselves admit publicly that England's naval superiority is as three to one, and that does not take into consideration recent revelations as ■ to the inefiiciency and defects of the French ships and defences. Every sane Frenchman recognised that such a war must inevitably mean the ruin of his country, however much England, too, might suffer, and fortunately good sense prevailed over the idiotic ravings of the Paris Gutter-Press. But it was indeed the narrowest of narrow shaves. We' may well be thankful for the respite. Still we have to face the question, Is ib only a respite? Is,war even yet impending, and under conditions less favourable to us than those which obtained during the recent Anglo-French crisis? . All Europe is asking this question, and . all Europe can find. no. answer. The situa- - tion is an impenetrable mystery. The various Governments are wisely Conducting their negotiations in the profoundest secrecy. But on all sides there are movements of a disquieting nature, and all thoughtful people feel that we are walking on the crust of a volcano which may '•——"and blow us to bits at any moment. It is not an agreeable sensation. Yet it is entirely well-founded. There is that Red Sea port question which is still unsettled, although. France has appeared for the moment to yield to Italy's protest. Here France has Russia heartily with, her, and although nobody believes the Frenoh, "yarn" that Russia bad "five tunes" —why five, I wonder ?■—offered her support to France if the latter would fight England over Fa&joda, the case is quite different as to the Red Sea business. There France is notoriously trying to pull the chestnuts out of the fire for Russia as a further bid for Muscovite favours. It is true that Russia would prefer to go on as hitcberto, collaring all the substantial benefits of the RussoFrench amity while repaying these in empty compliments and cheap assurances. Bat it may, I think, be taken for granted that . France will not come actually to blows with Italy and England- over the Raheita matter unless _h© has a distinct certainty of Russia's active co-operation. That is where the en« hanced gravity accrues. ' Could we fight France and Russia with Italy as our sole ally? On this head expert opinion differs. That Italy's fleet is exceedingly fine and powerful is frankly recognised on all hands. But can the fighting capacity of the Italians at sea be relied upon? That - is at least dubious. Italy had only had one naval "brush" since her -ironclad fleet was formed, and that wa* with Austria, the weakest of maritime Powers. Yet in that one encounter the Italian fleet was decisively and badly worsted. A naval ally whose 1 fighting material, though good on paper, _hould prove in the time of trial as untroi*worthy as did that of Sp»ia in the recent

war with America, might be mom-harm than good, and might hamper us instead of adding.

Moreover, if Russia should take a hand in mho game _he would assuredly endeavour to operate at tho points where we are weakest. As I have warned you more than once, among tlie earliest strokes planned to be dealt is the seizure of Now Zealand, and its retention as a Russian c«r Franco-Russian stronghold commanding-the South Pacific. Another is the destruction of British maritime commerce and the stoppage- of England's food supplies. Here would come hi tho good offices of tho Russian Volunteer Fleet. Further, Russia wendd umpaestdonttbly attempt a military coup sumdtiuwously in India, l'<-rsi_»aiul Chin-*, wJiikxAbj*s»sinia Would Ik; WK;c>ura££!ri-aiiA-a*ss_s_o^

us in Kgyp~U-and tho Soudan. So it- is a ''large order" altogether, and tone's >hrain whirls in trying-to and pmhaWo c-oHiplicatiuus. Yet-all. have to bo t-ikwi ir_u>a«xoun_fand'aU-cordront--us % clobu at hand.

There is cHupeltaricnt torwiticb I liavo not yob refiTrwi, but which.jn»y-prev«':th_-.re-solviiig agent —GerriKmyi What will the Kaiser do. It-has long been -tbo'-sengeless fasitiou of certain. Hippaut journaJs.-to seize every opportunity ot easting • derision* and even insult at- "William tiki Second-to-None," as-lie., is stylodrwith very feeble humour. He-is rcsp relented as a silly young man, fund of outside- show* and frippery, pulled up to inordinate biiniptiousjhm* with a sen.se c£.hrs own-greatoess find dignity, but p«*_*o*uiig little-—if airy—mil e&qta-ity- "But those wJio-km>whim-lwve a very different story to tell. Even- were-lie tho inure windbag and-posUirer kis -Euglish and French hwnpooners* love to represent |*im, ho cannot be> ; regarded as a quaniite negliguablu while.liewields.the most powerful land-fighting machine'in existence, tlie llennan army. And you may ndy-upon.it sic will have a good •deal-to say—indeed, I might put it. is--fis.vmg-a.good deal"to say — about the present international situation. Do you suppose*' tliat-somewhat-theatrical and pompous visit; to Turkey and •Palestine was undertukeii'-os'a.mere holiday parade or pious pilgrimage? I find it very hardy to believe. It k**a!l very well for newspaperwriters to mak&'fun. of his .proceedings in tlie Holy Land, but •what-lay l>ehind those performances? No.donbt-it--did.scem rather ebsurd to read in.-that--cable message about His reception on the-shores of Palestine a bevy of "German-mukls-of-lionour -wearing special costumes of white, fitting .close to the figure (as the official telegram feelingly put it>) and trimmed with Marechal Niel coses and. lilies of* the;valley, also (as-the official telegram, with laudable exactness, went on to tne tame flowers, and' wearing white-glov ■•£ .v.d cjatent-leather shoes:" It was • tempfcmg to "funny men," writers and artists, to cut pakes about tbe--Kaiser and this, body-guard of ''Gorman, maidens," and it is not surprising that this-soßiewl'at comical official tele-p-am elicited-a goodfdeal of "chaff," some in lather taste. But there were plenty of people-who-clearly perceived that the Kaiser had a very -definite and deep purpose underlying all this outward pomp and sliow. France and Russia were prompt to take ■larm. If Germany became the Sultans close ally, and got the thm end of the wedge into tlie okl vexed question of the Holy Places—over which France and Russia fought so desperately in the fifties—what might not'become of-their protectorate over the Latin and Greek Christians of Palestine? And where miglit Russia ultimately find herself in. respect of Constantinople, or Franco as to Syria? That very severe friction has already occurred over this matter is an ooen secret, and some-people imagine tihat it 'will- be-over the old problem of the noar East that the war-storm will break, and not in respect etf"lrheo*bermatters which at the moment, and to the -initiated, seem

more urgently dar_gerous. Hence one theory of the .present international mystery is that Germany is compelling France and Russia to keep the peace by making it clear that if they get into a struggle with England and Italy, Germany will square matters with Turkey, assume the sole Christian protectorship of the Holy Land, and secure the reversion generally of the "Sick Man's" estate, leaving Russia out

in» tho cold, while measures would also be taken to ensure effectually the permanent impotence of France in tho Mediterranean and on tho Alsace-Lonnine frontier.

On tihe oih-er hand, the French actually

are strangely- of securing Germany's f*riendly old- against England. Tlie case is put in the roost -attractive- and- free-and-easy way. "England," say-these slightly visionary writers, antagonist in commerce. _>t«Germa*_y castsin -her lot with France and Russia, and- England**, coromercial rivalry and antagonism can be ended for ever. Let-Germany merely just give back Alsace-Lorraine voluntarily in a friendly way,.and she will find France and Russia only too-happy and-ready to help her in her noble crusade against the«brutal and perfidious and. greedy and arrogant British, who regard, tliemserves as the rightful sove- ' reigns of the whole-earth."

Now, is not this an amazing effort of fatuity? Yet it is seriously put forward by writers of eminence. I need not point out the trivial difficulties which would block the scheme at tlie outset. Even the voluntary Surrendering of Alsace-Lorraine, in- . volving the provision of an "open door" for French invasion, so soon as it should suit

France and Russia to quarrel with Germany i over the spoils of the successful-raid on the • British Empire, might not commend itself .to the approval of German statesmen. Nor might the latter wholly relish the utter abandonment of Germany's fate to the fiat of her neighbours whom she has long so deeply dreaded and 'distrusted. Indeed the crumpling un of England might not provo so easy a task, even to those three Great Powers, as the advocates of the policy assume. The British Empire will take a . great deal of crumpling up. Do you remember what a profound panic •was created among the European "Powers when the late Lord Beaconsfield, after proclaiming Queen Victoria Empress of India, ordered a regiment of India coloured troops to Malta. A shriek of horror and amazement went up, especially from Russia, and even a European Congress was proposed to concert united action against the introduction of coloured-troops into Europe. It w«_ suddenly remembcrod that England's "fotod ifor powder" could be drawn not merely from the forty millions of Great Britain, hot from 300 millions of Asiatic '■' subjecta, some, of whom made the finest -Withers in the-workl. Lord Beaconsfield

merely l»ughed>at*the protests-and went on bis-own way impeitucbed. But you may take it frwn case of-war those splendid whom.a few were London at Jastiyear's Jubilee celebrations, wiH "bave>-a.look in" and wHI tbe.-kssm tIK-fciEughmd :bas » <Hite»de these little insignifTCant -stands themselves. Certain Ertm>pa_n-Powers -have an unpleasant surprise not "mind their eye-l"

Perhaps the absurdest theory of all in i*eapect*to J-kntfh-ud's present, attitude of contkniod*naw**_ mobilisation is.one just-pot for w-*rd by -a Gmtnientai writer. He asserts, prwleweeny from absolute knowledge, that w*ifch feverish haafee" for tAo^pnrpose ; of joining America in a seizure of Spain,and. mutual division of her territoriesm various parte of the world. Acowßding..to this ingumwus and imaginative «-»oritjr the -final demand of America on SptJm,'lor-the cession of the Phjiippmo I«_-id»4i-itJthe4Uiial. refusal of Spain to cede them,.aretto be-sfottowetLbv an ofensive and Great-Britain and the-Utoted States, who-will then proceed to the-map-of Europe and thwn share hec cokHiial possessions. It is drfticalt to treat seriously such a wild flight of uru_gmut_on. I need harcHv take tlie trouble-to state tkat-there-k not*tbe slightest foundT_-k>nxfor-'the prep^Mterous-roraaanee. Th__t-iJ_o "eactento cocdiaJo" between England and Amerka_<- seems daily -to improve and strengthen is, on the other hand, a ia no doubt whattwer}| And it* is no less pleasant to noto^^fthe- case appears to-be the "same toOenuany. All that non- - Bf^i__rUt'ther Ut ' the 10 *" William's hatred . of EpP_*_d<aiKl of his august English grandnw Wj_is .simply nonsense. I am assured _{ q-CtoKaiser, on the contrary, entertains the wanr__Bt*rSection for our Queen, and that •iiiatead of ''10-tfiing the English blood

which flows in his veins," as certain Bismorckian Anglophone writers assert, he is distinctly proud of his partial descent from such a martial and masterful race, -ill these fables may be-traccd to ono source—the personal quarrel between the late Prince Bismarck and the Empress Frederick, in which lie was wholly in the wrong, and therefore, as usual, was tne one who* remained unfor-

giving. Happily present appearances point more and more conclusively to tho establishment of such a sound and solid mutual understanding among England, America and Germany as shall be infinitely more potent than a dozen such so-called " Alli.-inrW as that which the French profess (and try hard) to believe exists between their country and Russia, and if France does not exercise more wisdom and discretion than of late, that understanding may take a more prominent and formidable shape.