MARRIAGES AND THE GROWTH OF POPULATION.

Bruce Herald, Volume XXI, Issue 2182, 11 July 1890, Page 6

MARRIAGES AND THE GROWTH OF POPULATION.

At a meeting of the Royal Statistical Society, held at the School of Mines, -Jermyn Street, London, a paper on '"Marriage Rates and Marriage Ages, with especial reference to the Growth of Population," was read by Dr. William Ogle.

FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MARRIAGE RATE. Dr. Ogle said that the fluctuations from year to year in the marriage rate became a fair measure of the ebb and 1 flow of material prosperity. In this country the marriage rate fluctuates greatly but very irregularly. The effects of war, famine, and pestilence have hardly been felt in England for the last century at all ; but there are yearjy fluctuations in the abundance and the price of food, and to these the differences in the marriage rate at various periods have been attributed by many economical writers. This, however, has not been the case, at any rate, since civil registration began. The difference in this respect between our own and other States is to be explained by the higher i standard of comfort among our labouring classes, which makes the price of food & subordinate factor in determining the question of marrying or not marrying. It is not true that the rate goes up when corn is cheap and down when it is dear. On the contrary, for many years the rate hae varied not inversely, but directly with the price of wheat. The explanation of this apparent paradox is to' be looked for in the fact that the price of wheat is largely determined by the cost of transport from abroad, and that freights go up when the export trade is active — this activity increasing employment and raising wages generally. THE MABBIAGE BATE AND EXPORT VALUES.

The marriage-rate, however, doeß vary very constantly with the export values. The fluctuations of the two correspond extremely cloßely aa to .direction, but not as to size. This correspondence must exist for the reason that the export values are measures of the amount of employment and wages in the country. That such is the case is shown by tbe returns of certain trade UDions consulted by Dr. Ogle. When the proportion of unemployed increases the marriage rate declines, and vice versa As to the question why the fluctuations in the marriage rate and export values do not agree in their magnitudes, tbe explanation is found in some hypothetical depression — such as the agricultural depression, or the increasing standard of comfort among all classes — which tells against the action of the latter when they rise, and with them when they fall. YABIATION OP THE MAREIAGE RATE IN

DIFFEBENT LOCALITIES. ■♦ The rate of marriages varies very greatly in different parts of Ye country. In Lancashire, Notts, Northumberland, and London the fate is invariably high, while in Surrey, Kept, Middlesex, Essex, and Hertfordshire — the registration counties being indicated in each case— it is correspondingly low. At the top of a list of counties in the order of their rates comes Bedfordshire, and Herefordshire stands at the end. This is referable in great measure to the fact that in the former, young women find employment to j a very large extent,

marriages being most frequent as a rule where the women can contribute to the family earnings. In counties which are in this respect similar to Bedfordshire the women marry earlier, and marry also very young husbands ; while in counties where the men earn large wages the proportion of excessively young wives is in excess.