THE FUTURE OF CHINA.

Bush Advocate, Volume VII, Issue 647, 9 July 1892, Page 5

THE FUTURE OF CHINA.

CWiTii.i nr TtoiiEir.-sox, i:j trk " Westmisbteb KkvillW."') Th' 1 general opinion of foroign residents in China— an opinion share' 1 , by many travelled Chinamen — is thai- partition of yome kind or other in inevitable. Several scheme:! of division have been proponed, >»U move or less fanuitul. I do not propose to discuss those, as until the number of claimants is known it is needless to speculate on the manner of division. It is the principle, not. the details, that is of practical interest at. the present moment. There are two brnidly distinct principle* on whish the division might be made. The various Towers might unconditionally am. ex the different, pnrts, or they mijrht assume conditional proteiitoratas. To tho first course Great Britain -would doubtless strongly object, rive-tjixths of tho foreign trade of China ie in her hands, and she ha» done more than any other nation towards the partial opening up of the country already obtained. Franae and Russia would naturally be large claimants, and those countries pursue a vicious exclusive commercial nolicy from tho introduction of which British trade might greatly suffer. There is also the serious objection to unconditional annexation that it would, of all methods of interference, be the least likely to conciliate tho Chinese. The task of subjecting the natives might prove very formidable, and, if undertaken in the vacillating 1 manner Prance is subjecting 1 Tonquin to, might be a curse rather than a blesßing to the world. There remains the alternative of condi" tional protectorates, and this course^ although not immediately adoptable, is, I believe, the form in which the influence of western civilisation in China will eventually be exercised. The present trouble is about over; compensation will be paid, and there mny bo a cessation of riots for four or fivg years. But trouble will arise in some other form ; and there will como a time when the nations of the West, ti^od of the continued struggle with an obstructive system o£ government, will pronounce the doom of the polypus empire of China. The day of doom may bo delayed by the mutual jealoußy of the foreign Powers or by a groat European war ; but its coming 10 inevitable. Beforn tho time is ripe for division the wave of commercial exclusivism that is passing: ever Europe and America will probably havo receded, and it may be possible to frame treaties providing for the division of the Chinese Empire into four, five, or six different protectorates, with the condition that the protecting nations shall establish no differential duties, and that tho various provinces shall be open to all without favour. A policy of wanton aggression is net, 1 think, expedient. For rather am I disposed to plead for China as Lot pleaded for the cities of the plain, recognising, as I do, ninny admirable traits of Chinese character. But I am convinced it would be for the benefit of the Chinese race, and forthe benefit of humanity, if an end were put to the present corrupt, unprogressivo system of government ; and that can only be done by foreign intervention. China is a rioh country, only wanting now life to develop it. Of a Chinese conquest of the world there need be no fear. Living a low life, and sheltered from aggression, the Chinese tend to multiply like rabbits. Snbjecfc to the quickening influence of a higher civilisation, , they might become a stronger and* hotter race at the expense of a diminution of the rate of increase. The Chinese have an indefatigable perseverance which will make them beneficent although not predominant factors in the future history of the world. There ie abundant room within Chirm itself, were the country properly developed, for the natnral expansion of tlio people. But the national life must be transformed. In this transforming -work Great Britain will be called to take a large share, and the (ask must not be shirked when the duty becomes plain. A tendency exists at home to condemn a forward policy because it has in tho past savoured a good deal of filibustering, and has been identified with the Jingoism that feeds on Russophobia. There is, however, a forward movement that is not .lingoipt, that is rational, that is but the natural outcome of the progressive spirit of a free people— a movement that is essential to the progress of the world.