FOURTH WINTER

Auckland Star, Volume LXXIII, Issue 238, 8 October 1942, Page 5

FOURTH WINTER

WAR BALANCE-SHEET From Lightning Conquest To Attrition United Press Association—Copyright Rec. 11 a.m. NEW YORK, Oct. 7. Drawing up a balance-sheet of the war. the New York Times correspondent, Hanson Baldwin, says the world enters the fourth winter of conflict with a war of lightning conquest being replaced by a war of attrition, a factor which is probably of the greatest advantage to the United Nations, whose strength is mounting, whereas the enemies' has probably reached or even passed its peak.

Months, pernaps years, of peril remain, he states, but we have weathered a large part of the most acute danger period. "This is the year of crisis and the worst hasn't happened. Russia fights strongly. The United Nations have established qualitative and are gaining quantitative air superiority. The submarine menace is being slowdy met. Japan's march of conquest has been stemmed. Neither India nor Siberia has been invaded. China is still unconquered.

"Admittedly the strategic situation is the subject of sudden change, but the picture looks brighter than most observers hoped three months ago. The Allied grip on the Solomons is again challenged, and the campaign in these exotic, wild islands has rapidly become one of attrition with the problems of supply, construction and sea control looming large.

"The rapid and unexplained Japanese retreat in New Guinea has relieved Port Moresby, but the situation in the South Pacific is still in a delicate balance. The balance-sheet shows many debits as well as credits. The enemy has won great victories, but they may be pyrrhic ones, for neither "Germany nor Japan is able to force a decision."

Probable Japanese Strategy

Naval observers point out that the Japanese Fleet, despite heavy losses, is still strong enough to launch a new offensive in the southwest or central Pacific, says the United Press correspondent at Pearl Harbour. American victories in the Coral Sea and Midway battles were based primarily on the element of surprise, and should not be taken to mean that the Japanese cannot, or have not, dealt heavy blows. The Japanese may strike at any one of three principal objectives: Firstly, against American bases in the Solomons to nip the head of the United Nations' counter-offensive; secondly, against the principal stepping stones of the southern Pacific supply route to Australia; thirdly, against the Midway and Hawaii area to smash or capture the United States Pacific Fleet's main base.

The Under-Secretary of the Navy, Mr. Forrestal, who has just returned from a tour of the south Pacific areas, predicts the revival of bitter fighting in the Solomons. "For the first time the little squat men have been sent, back," he said. "Thev don't like it. There will be nothing static ahnin our very active second front "down under.' ''