NAZIS AND SOVIET.

Auckland Star, Volume LXXI, Issue 44, 21 February 1940, Page 6

NAZIS AND SOVIET.

ALLIANCE OR WHAT? FEELINGS IN Bte&os 3TATES. ECONOMIC RIVALRY. (By WALTER DURANTY.) RIGA, January 6. In the Baltic States there is perhaps a solution to the problem which bulks so large in the eyes of the world's statesmen to-day—the relations between Germany and "the U.S.S.R. European chancelleries are either frankly bafTled or prone to fall Into the error of oversimplification and reach the arbitrary decision that Russo-German collaboration is so close as to be equivalent to an alliance, or just a deal between two crafty players, each of whom is ready to double-cross the other at the earliest opportunity.

in Tallinn and Riga the question is seen as a more complicated one—not merely as relations between Russia and Germany but three different sets of relationships—political, military and economic.

Politically it is apparent that Hitler made a deal with the Russians rather than the Russians with Hitler —in the hope of obtaining Danzig without war. For that he "paid the price that the Baltic would henceforth be a Russian sphere of influence. Perhaps the Germans accepted with their tongue in their cheek, confident that if war were avoided they would continue to dominate the Baltic, that if the war were lost it did not matter, and that if they won the war they would still be stronger than the Russians. Both Plans Miscarried. So the Russians without fighting acquired eastern Poland and brought three small Baltic States into their orbit—as bridges to the west or as barriers against Germany, who can #ay ? But the Soviet attempt to do the same with Finland was wrecked on the stubborn patriotism of the Finns, and the war now raging marks the failure not only of Russia's immediate plans but of Germany's ultimate design.*. In some Baltic circles it is thought that Germany is not ill-pleased to see Russians attack Finland, because that mijrht embroil the U.S.S.R. with the Allies and thus briny about a military alliance between Germany and the U.S.S.R. If the Russians continue the war with no greater success than heretofore it is likely they will invoke German assistance, which would reverse the

position and put Hie obligation henceforth on the side of the U.S.S.R. to Germany's advantage. Thus recent rejwrts in the German Press that Turkey is contemplating action against Soviet oilfields maj- l>c the prelude to a Germaninspired pressure of the U.S.S.R. upon Turkey against the Allies. Will the Thieves Fall Out? 7t was pretty clear from the outset that the Kremlin was ready enough to see the Allies and Germany fight each other to a Standstill, but wished to maintain its own army intact. The unfortunate, from the viewpoint of the Soviet. Finnish adventure, begun doubtless as an additional protection against Germany, increases the chances that Germany may obtain a measure of Soviet military co-operation tia£ could hardly have been expected earlier. Economically it looked, on paper, as if Germany had won access to the vast resources of the U.S.S.R. But much Soviet wealth is still potential, the Soviet demand for its own products exceeds the available supply, transport difficulties are great. Iron, manganese, crude oil. cotton, grain, these Germany might obtain, but it is significant that Kusso-Baltic trade has increased, Russia paying for some purchases here in valuta, namely in dollars. Tlnve States, too, now receive Russian* cotton, coal and oil. and repay with foodstuffs of which Germany expected the lion's share. There is even being worked out here a sort of pooling trade arrangement between the U.S.S.R. and the Baltic States whereby they can buy and sell abroad on a common account." If put into practice this would conflict with the German programme, which the Germans hope to extend to Scandinavia and even to Holland, of making the northern neutrals reduce their business with England to a minimum and trade exclusively with Germany.

Moreover. t!ie U.S.S.R. Is, actually carrying on or beginning negotiations for sending to the Baltic States, in addition to the present coal and oil exports, quantities of shale rock for fuel, particularly to Estonia and Latvia. This w«ild tend to break the halfnelson hold Germany had on the latter by control of coal deliveries once the supply from England was cut off. All of which looks as if there was rather rivalry than friendship between Germany and the U.S.S.R.' in the economic field. and the Bolsheviks always declare that economics dominate politics.

lo sum up. it seems (o l>e the viewin tin* liest-iuformed quarters here that Kusso-German relations are much less warm and close than Ornianv would have the rest of the world believe, but that liuu'h depends upon the progress of the war in Finland, where circumstances innv compel the Russians to play 'the fiorman .name for more than thev originally intended. — (N.A.N'.A.)