HUNGARY'S ROLE.

Auckland Star, Volume LXX, Issue 139, 15 June 1939, Page 7

HUNGARY'S ROLE.

THE NAZI DOG FIDO.

ANGLO-TURKISH PACT FACTOR

COMPLEX PUZZLES FOR BALKAN WITS,

(By WALTER DURAXTY.)

BUDAPEST, May 19. Hungary now seems cast for the not very sumptuous role of Germany's good dog Fido. To growl if need be at Rumania and with Poland, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria to wag its tail or show its teeth as Fido's master orders. And to be rewarded with bones like CarpathoUkraine yesterday and perhaps Slovakia to-morrow. It is a somewhat galling position for one of the proudest peoples in Europe, but the Hungarians have no ehoice.

As the world knows. Hungary's "lost provinces" went to Rumania and Yugoslavia. Hungary is not strong enough to attack the former if she wanted or was ■ Mowed to. Regarding Rumania there are heavy German. French, British and Italian plans and commitments in that country with which the Hungarians must reckon. Secondly, Rumania, like those parts of Czechoslovakia which Hungary received, has enacted Agrarian reform laws to l>reak up big estates and give land to the peasants. Which Hungary refused to do owing to the influence of the land-owning magnates, with the result, that the new territory acquired from Czechoslovakia has already caused trouble iu Hungary and a sharp renewal of peasant agitation for land reform, which will be greatly increased if any part, of Transylvania were taken from Rumania. Finally, Hungary cannot move ft finger without German permission, and. a* I said, is being used by Germany as a potential threat to Rumania or to Hungary's other neighbours if they kick against the German pricks.

Growing Nazi Support. Like other Dnnubian States, Hungary is tied fast by German economic bonds. In addition, there is a marked growth of strength in the numbers of the Hungarian Nazi elements, accompanied by a growth of anti-Semitism, which seems rather to have diminished elsewhere in South-eastern Kurope. Hungary will hold an election on May 28 and 25), and it is expected that the number of Nazi Deputies will rise from seven to upwards of .")(). The Nazi leader. Fere 11 c Szalasv. is still under nominal imprisonment, but his spokesman, the Deputy Kolornan Mutiny. i* fighting a vigoroiis campaign °'i lii-» behalf. "I lie Premier, M. Teleki. the foreign Minister, Count Csaky, and the Minister of the Interior, M. KerczstesFiseher. are trying to resist the \,izi tide, and the two hitter recently voiced strong approval i>f the •evere sentences passed on Nazi ter?

rorists who threw l>ombs into a Jewish crowd outride a synagogue on February 3. But the Nazis have strong support in&ide and o.itside Hungary. The Minister of Commerce and Industry, M. Kunder, is playing the German game to the utmost, the Army are dissatisfied with the course of policy of Count Csaky. ttie landowning magnates are in wholehearted opposition to the Government's programme of hind reform. La<t lint not least, there is the mysterious game being played liv the ex-Premier, M. (mredy, who despite a .lewish grandi mother is still the most powerful figure in the country and has apparently decided that the closest co-operation with Germany is Hungary's wisest |>olicy.

Willy-nilly Allegiance to Axis. The recent anti-semitic law, unlike the former law, which was only a pretence, has real teeth in it, and is a further strong instrument* in Nazi hands. Its avowed purpose is to limit the percentage of Jews in any business, profession. bank, industrial or commercial enterprise. All such laws depend on how they are applied rather than on their strict letter, and this one is being applied with such vigour that the "legitimate" Jewish percentage is now. with a few exceptions, made up of subordinates. In a country like Hungary, where there are tens of thousands of greedy young sons of Government functionaries, who formerly administered the large Hungarian kingdom, the expulsion of Jews who played a prominent part in Hungarian finance, business and industry, offers a welcome and profitable opportunity, and wins ready adherents to the Nazi cause.

It is unlikely that Germany is planning to "take over" Hungary, or even, as is suggested in some quarters, to cement its economic ties by a Customs union. Because neither step seems necessary. Despite dwindling opposition and spasmodic attempts to assert its own independence, Hungary's allegiance to t he axis and employment as the axis' do;; Kido may almost be taken for granted. „ Nazis' "Most Serious Defeat." I he influent ial (ierman language Hungarian newspa|>er "Prester Lloyd" to-dav remarks sourly that the Kntente's basic principle, "Balkan lands for the Balkan peoples," has been vitiated by Turkey's pact with Kngland. Incidentally, this Pact is regarded everywhere in South-eastern Kurope—and tor that matter in North eastern Kurope, including Germany—as the first arid most serious Nazi diplomatic defeat since Herr Hitler's troops entered the Khineland. Should it be followed, as is not improbable, by a Russo-Turkish pact 011 the same lines, it is ■ considered in many quarters that a "major new situation will be created." As matters stand in Bucharest to-day. Rumania is like a fish on the German line wriggling and kicking to escape but apparently far hooked. \ ugosla via is like a fifth wheel on a coach. Its strong Axis' slant re•noves any desire to protect the frontiers of fireece and Rumania against Bulgaria. which the Axis is trying to win over with offers of the Rumanian DobI'tidja or a Greek seaport on the Aegean. \n<l Myosin via is fully strong enough to prote«-t its own frontiers without aid. which furthermore are unmenaced gave

by the perennial Macedonian agitation. Turkey would like to lure Bulgaria into the anti-Axis orbit with the same bait as the Germane are offering, but Greece refuses utterly and King Carol is reported to have said that a royal dictator of little more than one year's standing cannot afford to relinquih territory Which ,1 parliamentary government kept for nearly 2(1 years.

All of .which makes a complex puzzle for Balkin wit* to solve. Some of the shrewdest of the Balkan observers expect a solution to be found, if it can be found, through Turkey, that is through the development of Turkish relations with France and the U.S.S.R. Which in turn may seem to deja-nd on the progress of the Anglo-French-Soviet negotiations. As a matter of fact, Turkey herself offers no small puzzle at this juncture. As the "Pester Lloyd'' asks and the German newspapers echo,

"Where is the Turkish independence and the iron hand on the Dardanelles for which Kemal Ataturk fought the British into the ditch?" What, they ask, is the game of jHwt-Ataturk Turkey and are they men who play it or mice which have followed a golden cheese? Does Turkey want or can Turkey succeed in bringing Bulgaria into the entente to replace the indifferent Yugoslavs? Would Russia favour that, and can Russia and Turkey break the line which holds! Rwmania. and cajole or browbeat Rumania and Greece into making concessions to Bulgaria?

New Black Sea Pact Possible. All those answers must be thrashed out in the near future. About Turkey I know nothing, but about the U.S.S.R. T venture, with crossed fingers, a personal opinion. I think the U.S.S.R. would like to help, Bulgaria and win it away from the axis. If for no other reasons than tradition and amour propre and the remembrance that a Russian Czar is still honoured by the Bulgarians as their liberator. The Kremlin would disavow such "sentimental" considerations, but it will not deny that the Bulgarians are genuinely Russophile and good tough fighting stock. There now seems to be developing a renewal of friendship between the U.S.S.R. and Turkey after a j»eriod of coldness since the Montreux Conference where the Turks thought the U.S.S.R., whose foreign policy was there handled by Karakhan and Litvinoff, did not support' them properly. And a new, unexpected, friendship —Balkan politics make strange bedfellows —l>etween them both and Bulgaria. If the Russians think it desirable to cheek the German plans in Rumania —for whose fighting capacity they have no great esteem —they might try a means to induce the cession of the Dobrudja while Turkey works on Greece, both directly and through its new British allies. I have had trustworthy information that the British Minister in Bulgaria would collaborate to the utmost.

It all sounds complicated and but the Balkans art; proverbially the "weather kitchen"' of the European storm. What is more important is that in this region the axis has just lost a nig diplomatic battle and with it the initiative which it has 30 long possessed. Can the anti-axis forces be counted upon to exploit this success? Perhaps a new Black Sea Pact—which the Russians have already been considering for some time—may be tie answer.—N.AJS.A.