WORLD SURVEY.

Auckland Star, Volume LXVIII, Issue 82, 8 April 1937, Page 20

WORLD SURVEY.

NATIONS' FRIENDS. MR. ROOSEVELT'S OBJECTIVES " SOCIALISED DEMOCRACY." (By PAUL MALLOX.) WASHINGTON, February 15. Where the world is going is the chief topic everywhere here. The best available data on the subject are probably those being furnished privately by top economists employed by business authorities to find out what is coining. Their views represent at least the most sincere effort to penetrate the confuting mass of political propaganda in the search for j realistic fact*. They may not be right, but they should know more about it than anyone else, whether or not thev do. Among the most trustworthy of these survey predictions now in circulation behind the scenes are these:— United States. President Roosevelt's purpose may now be clearly defined by piecing together the event*! of the la<st 30 days. The Government reorganisation plan, plus the Budget, the N.R.A. promises, the Wallace farm control programme and the move to get control of the Supreme Court shows the prospect. It is a Federal Government about twice as big and twice a« strong ae any known m a democracy before. It might be called a "Socialised Democracy" based on the assumpton of Federal responsibility to cure immediate group ilk now, and all ills of all groups later. The immediate objective is to establish and maintain standards cif living arbitrarily for organised labour and farm groups first. This involves iederal control of industrial prices (a new N.R.A., hour and wage control, taxes, credit and monetary policy, etc.) and farm pricee (production control, crop insurance, etc.) It will require a seven, eight or niue billion dollar annual Government coet, to be financed from taxes. This means that a further increase -will necessarily be niado possible next year. (Deficit financing cannot be continued longer.) The unavoidable effect of this expansion of responsibility will be further expansion to include Federal control for health, education, all housing, and whatever group ills crop up. It is questionable whether such, responsibility can be exercised through Democratic processes indefinitely over a period of years, because of the variety of conflicting dissatisfactions and desires among varying selfish, voting groups (employers, labour, etc.). The tendency will be toward further and further expansion of arbitrary Federal authority to enforce its responsibility, and there seems to be room for doubt whether such a movement can be kept indefinitely within the form of Democratic processes.

The President's Supreme Court move is just a phase. If Congress defeats him, his Government reorganisation plan will probably aleo be defeated and he will be stopped all along , the line, but just for the present. He is certain to continue to pursue the same objectives in another manner. Germany. The high tide of Heir Hitler seems to have been reached. Evidence is accumulating that the Army General Staff hae the strongest hand on the reins of power, also that the Nazi party and Hitler are no longer synonymous. With his control over all the avenues of expression of popular opinion, it is difficult to ascertain the extent of hie popular weakness, although his economic weakness is obvious. There is no one in the party capable of supplanting him. Hence, a military control probably will come next, in the form of a Regency or a monarchial restoration, possibly before the end of 1937, probably in 1938. A Ger-man-made war is extremely unlikely, but a collapse of Nazism only a matter of time. Japan and Russia. Japan is economically extended. Manchukuo has been a liability rather than an asset. The weakness of the yen is supposed to be planned, but is probably genuine. Unrest among the army politicians, is growing. An army regime ie likely to be established during the course of the year. Yet no Japanesemade war is considered likely.

Stalin eeems to be making concessions fast to popular pressure. His proposed Constitution may not have been offered entirely in good faith, but is nevertheless a concession to the democratic idea. His staged trials betrayed his nervousness concerning hie aesociatee. A further weakening of principles is to be expected as he tries to whip his army and nation into the proper spirit for national defence, rather than for an international revolution. Italy and England. Fascism has made little headway outside Italy in the last year—not even in Spain. Signor Muesolini ie still suffering economically from hi* victory in Ethiopia. His dictatorship is secure, but Mβ economic position weak. He never enacts the same role twice, and ie likely to emerge eoon as leader of a peace boom or a disarmament boom to cover his position. The position of the Baldwin Government in the United Kingdom never seemed stronger than when it defeated Mrs. Simpson for Queen. But there is some question whether Baldwin could defeat anyone else. Left-wing movements are active, the Conservative movement almost non-existent. Some are predicting the fall of the Baldwin regime within a year, in the pinch of rising prices and low interest rates.— (Copyright: N.A.N.A.)