CARS IN AMERICA.

Auckland Star, Volume LXVIII, Issue 45, 23 February 1937, Page 16

CARS IN AMERICA.

SATURATED MARKET?

GROWING TRAFFIC BURDEN.

"ROADS NOT KEEPING PACE."

(By EDWARD W. MORRISON.) DETROIT. Although the automobile industry is headed for its most prosperous year— a year that probably will see the production of 5,000,000 cars — the spectre that rises to disturb the thoughts of many prominent executives is the old threat of a saturated market. Manufacturers in Detroit do not dispute the fact that the automobile field never actually has been plumbed. About 1929 there was much speculation about the saturation point. But the inexorable laws of economics provided no trails for any of the theories. On a rapidly expanding, market, such as the present, it is not surprising to hear ancient arguments reviewed. At present, there is a vast automotive demand. There is a huge field of replacment, which may reach as high as 7,500,000 cars. This represents buying that was not accomplished in the years from 1930 to 1935. At the same time, there is the fact that no one in America knows just how many automobiles the country is capable of buying or supporting. The passenger car registrations number at present about 26,000,000. That figure will rise to 27,000,000 in the next year, feut no one can say whether ultimately it will be 28,000,000 or even 35,000,000 or 40,000,000.

'■ Projected i 937 Output. The vice-president of a well known company was quoted not long ago as estimating the potential number of automobiles at 35,000,000. If every automobile in a nation with that number of cars were replaced every seven years, the annual sales for the industry would be 5,000,000 cars. And that would be no more than the projected output for 1937. However, when automobile executives start to study the problem of how many cars the nation can absorb they find theineelvee making new calculations. Seven or eight years ago they talked of buying power. . To-day they start in another direction. They agree, for instance, that on the charts the curve of automobile sales will follow the curves that business and national income take. But this spectre of saturation is floated against the dark background of traffic deficiencies. The expansion of the automobile industry is threatened by the retarded growth of highway facilities. The men who are looking into the future for the industry foresee the day when the movement of traffic, particularly in the cities, will have grown so slow and the hazards of driving increased' so much, that the automobile for passenger use will have ceased to be an aeeet.

Highway Efficiency. "Eoad building and street improvement*," as one automobile executive puts it, "have not kept pace with the technological improvement in the automobile. We have made the automobile itself desirable to own without advancing the facilities for the movement of traffic and establishing the best safeguards for highway efficiency." The number of two-car families has increased in the last 10 years from 100,000 to. about 1,250,000. The brakes seem to have been put on the trend toward two-car ownership, however. This is explained by the inability of women to adjust themselves to growing traffic hazards. Women are the chief users of the second car in a family, but when traffic gets so heavy that the movement of cars is impeded, drivers— and particularly the women—seek other means of transportation. Automobile executives point to thesituation in New York, where crosstown traffic moves only from three to five miles an hour at certain times. Congestion reduces the potential market for cars. New York is cited ae an example of an area wliere the number of cars in relation to per capita income ia below the corresponding figures for certain other urban districts—Los Angeles and Detroit, for instance, where traffic moves more easily. Narrow streets, bottle necks, excese number of traffic lights, absence of at least half a dozen trunk arteries in each metropolitan area—these are the things which the" automobile manufacturers insist will throttle the growth of car buying and create the saturation point for the automobile.

Diversion of Taxes. The diversion of petrol taxes to purposes unrelated to automotive uses is blamed to a large decree for the failure of highway development to keep pace with the enlarged role the automobile plays in modern life. In 1935 State petrol tax and motor registration receipts used for purposes other than highway financing reached 147,142.209 dollars. In l»30 only eight States diverted autoBSKtiv* fUttte, but, by 1933, this number hiA; ufet&Bed ttft g*. CStiea eirojfrrly permitted traffic abofee to go unheeded during depression days through lack of 'lonia, ' - •'■•-•- '■■■■ —.

In the United States to-day exist over 3,000,000 miles of rural highway. k The sum of 400,000,000 dollars will have been spent this year for maintaining trunk linee. The motor industry, envisioning the day when the ownership of a car in the populated areas will have ceased to be a pleasure, insists that more attention be given to urban highway projects. More roads? Yes! But roads and streets that stimulate the flow of traffic, not merely concrete stripe that bisect the couhtryeide. The whole problem of saturation can be summed up in two sentences. The men who guide the automobile industry are not worried to-day about the purchasing power of America. They are worried about the ability of American streets and highways to handle an evergrowing burden of traffic. — (N.A.N.A. Copyright.) ♦