JAPAN UNEASY.

Auckland Star, Volume LXVII, Issue 139, 13 June 1936, Page 19

JAPAN UNEASY.

THE MENACE OF WAR. RUSSIA'S AMBITIONS. INCREASING BORDER TROUBLES.

(By FRANK H. HEDGES.)

TOKYO, April. The fear that the Tokyo Government has entertained for some time that a major incident on the borders of Mancliukuo miglit precipitate a war between Soviet Russia and Japan, id spreading among the general populace of this country. Not a week goes, by that does no't bring reports of fresh incidents along the boundary between Manchukuo and Siberia, or between Maneluikuo and outer Mongolia, in which at least a few lives are lost.

These border clashes are steadily increasing in number, in magnitude and in seriousness. They have ceased to be pinpricks, as a matter of fact, and have reached the status of sword thrusts and bullet wounds. 11l many of them aeroplanes figure prominently, and it must be remembered that Japan is quite as nervous about aeroplanes as the United Kingdom is about submarines.

The Japanese people feel that Russia is growing more ambitious in the Far East. The military alliance with Outer Mongolia, which has 'been announced by the Moscow Government, is regarded very seriously here. The Foreign Office is quite evidently nervous concerning it and must at least suspect that China is cognisant of its terms and has acquiesced in them.

Shanghai dispatches report also the conclusion of a secret alliance between China itself and the Soviet State, an alliance officially denied by Nanking; Japan cannot forget, however, that the Lilobanoff Treaty was in existence all through the Russo-Japanese war, and that Japan was completely ignorant thereof. If Tokyo had known of the existence of that treaty it is likely there would be no Mancliurian question to-day, for Japan would probably have talreit over that entire country then. Wfcen Moscow Speaks to Tokyo. Moreover, there is not the conciliatory attitude on the part of Moscow which existed a year and more ago. The Soviet armed strength in the Far East has been greatly increased; the aeroplanes assembled there have reached a substantial number; there is a fleet of Russian submarines of unknown strength in the harbour at Vladivostok; border fortifications have been greatly strengthened, and means of communication, particularly by rail, between European Russia and the Pacific have been greatly improved. When Moscowspeaks to Tokyo now it speaks with a very considerable army stationed on the borders of Japan and its continental ally, Mancliukuo, behind it, and the voice is different from what it was when

the road to T.akc Baikal in mid-Siberia, lay open to k an invading Japanese Army. . . Outer Mongolia, now tfiat its military alliance with the Soviet lias been proclaimed, speaks and acts with an assurance formerly lacking, with an assurance that approaches perilously close to arrogance. Moscow itself well knows the cost of a war with Japan and will not embark upon it unless the end seems to justify such action, but the Mongols of Ulanbator arc but children in knowledge of the world and present-day world forces, and might easily and liglitlv undertake to start such a war. Knowledge of all this is becoming widespread throughout Japan and among all classes of Japanese. When an incident occurs 011 the border the Government is careful to see that only the joint Japanese and Maucliukuan version thereof is given publicity 111 Japan. 111 that version the incident always take.; place on Mancliukuan. soil by invading Mongols or Russians, who are invariably the aggressors. Moscow's version (which is not published in Japan but is in China) is just as certainly the exact opposite. Japanese Confidence Shaken. The February 20 Army rebellion in Tokyo, in which a handful of radical junior sought to overthrow the existing machinery of Government by assassination and force, shook Japan s confidence in itself and in its army. Psychologically, the Japanese people are in a state at present where rumours and reports of impending war are taken much more seriously and are far more disturbing than was tlie case even a few months ago. Ofiice clerks and waiters, farmer lads and workers in Japan's modern factories and mills anxiously scan the papers for the latest news of Manchurian border developments and for what Moscow and Tokyo are saving to cach other. They do not want war —far from it. But they ■do fear that it is approaching, and approaching rapidly. There is 110 sentiment in favour of rushing on to the field of battle for the glory of the Empire, but there is a growing conviction that Japan will be forced to resort to sword and rifle to defend itself and the programme on the Asiatic Continent which it considers vital to its life and progress. One hears no joking about the possibility of war and one hears no bragging that one Japanese soldier is worth ten Russians. The talk and the countenances of the speakers are serious when

they refer to tlie Russo-Mongol versus Japanese-Manchukuaii clashes. Many Japanese ask each other when the war will break out and many predict that it will come within a month. Such predictions are worthless, of course, but they cannot be discounted as impossible. If war should come at this time it will be precipitated by some incident along Manchukuo's borders of such a nature and magnitude that it cannot be averted with honour.— X.A.N.A.