EUROPE’S WORRIES.

Auckland Star, Volume LXVI, Issue 236, 5 October 1935, Page 10

EUROPE’S WORRIES.

AN ANXIOUS BRITAIN. ITALY AND THE CANAL. AMERICAN SENATOR’S COMMENT. The author of the following article (which was writ ton prior to the meeting of the League Council last month) is Mr. James P. Pope, a member of the United States Senate and of the Foreign Relations and Munitions Committees of flic Senate. Britannia, ruler of one of the greatest empires of the earth, is worried. And well she may be —along with all her international neighbours. Never in fifteen years have the dogs of war more voraciously snapped at the jugular vein of the Empire, the Suez Canal. Mussolini in going to war. No peaceful negotiations short of an Ethiopian surrender or universal economic sanctions can stop him. As a matter of fact I suspect that 11 Duce is himself now unable to avoid a conflict. Having spent some sixty millions of dollars transporting troops and supplies to Abyssinia in the face of a wavering national credit, he is barred by a nationalistic and patriotic public opinion from withdrawing. He has crawled too far out on the” limb and must either wage a successful and profitable war or meet unprecedented opposition from Italian publie opinion. England has no real assurance that if Italy conquers Abyssinia, she will not then undertake a conquest of Egypt and eventually the Suez Canal—the onlv direct route to India. Moreover, if Mussolini is completely engaged in his Ethiopian campaign, Germany and Austria will bo free to endeavour the reacquisition of Trieste. brom that point no one can predict what will develop. France has hesitated, and the entire burden seems now to be shifted, to Great Britain. Therefore the most important question of international relations nt the present time is what will England do. British Cabinet’s Decisions. * I understand that the action of the British Cabinet a few days ago consisted in decisions on four points. First, the British Government presently intends to defer all action on the Ethiopian question to the League of Nations Council meeting in Genova on September 4. Second, the Cabinet decided to endeavour, in co-operation with France-, to prevent a war and satisfactorily adjust the situation prior to September 3. This, while a good course of action, is extremely unlikely to be fruitful, because of the hesitancy of France and also because of the practical impossibility of dissuading Mussolini. Third, the Cabinet determined to reaffirm its adherence to the League of Nations principles. Fourth, and most important, the Cabinet delegated power to act in an emergency to an Imperial Defence Committee which stands in readiness at all times for a meeting. This seems to indicate that England is not unaware of the possibility that she may become directly involved in warfare.

It is quite obvious that England, then, will push the entire problem squarely before the League of Nations and say, “There most be no war. We are all pledged to prevent it.” There is much speculation as to the tone in which she will say it. Mussolini’s Shrewd Game, The League is unable to apply sanctions, military or economic, to Italy without a unanimous vote. This assent, will be very difficult, to obtain. At this point the problem becomes quite analagous to the Manchurian and German problems. In the one case no sanctions were applied and Japan took what she wanted. In the other, Britain being in danger of air raids, the League condemned Germany in surprisingly severe terms. In the present case, there is much uncertainty as to the amount of pressure Britain will exert for sanctions. Taking advantage of this situation, Mussolini has played a very shrewd game. First, he has, in a recent statement, given assurances that he will recognise all the legal rights of European Powers and claims that England recognised Italy’s right to Ethiopia in 1925. The English version of the 1925 correspondence is that Italy was assured that England would not compete with her for commercial and economic advantages in Ethiopia. In a prior statement, Mussolini said that if sanctions are applied to prevent his Ethiopian campaign it will mean warfare in Europe. In other words, he is endeavouring to convey the impression that the other nations of the world have everything to gain and nothing to lose by giving him a free hand. It is reported that the British Admiralty has stated that the Mediterranean Fleet is not powerful enough to act as an efficient fighting unit in the event of a war and that England does not have sufficient strength in armament to fight a waf by herself against Italy if the League of Nations fails. Contending that England cannot, without extensive preparation, enforce her demands and decisions, some of her Ministers are seeking further armament both on land and sea. The Government is. furthermore, trying to secure a pledge of assistance from France if the worst comes. British Opinion. Some responsible thought holds that if England refrains from action designed to restrain Italy and permits Mussolini to carry his war to completion public opinion will be so aroused as almost to force an Italo-British conflict. Not only the statesmen of Britain, but her entire population, avidly follow every detail of the Ethiopian situation. At no time since the world war has Britain been so aroused to the danger of an international situation. Not only is the possibility of British conflict with Italy important, but some English lenders of thought are thoroughly convinced that any extended warfare in the modern world will spread. They say, “Civilisation must exist as a whole and cannot survive in segments.” They are saying, in other words, that if the impending conflict is permitted to continue it will involve not only the Powers of Europe, but will spread throughout the world. To England, Italian encroachment in Africa, so near to-the Suez Canal, is about the same as Italian acquisition of territory immediately bordering on the Panama Canal would be to the United States. All the nations of the world want to stay •but of war. and most of them are looking to the Engli-h-.-penking nations to prevent one. In the light of Cabinet decisions it is quite evident that Eng- • land will tread lightly and concentrate . every effort on the League Council. | Nevertheless, danger signals visible to Britain are cnniuvll'nsr her to abandon distarmament and again endeavour to give currency to the motto “Britannia I rules the waves.” —(N.A.N.A.) •