ELECTION PROPHECIES.

Auckland Star, Volume LX, Issue 85, 11 April 1929, Page 8

ELECTION PROPHECIES.

An inquiry among members of Parliament conducted by the "Evening Standard" gives the Conservatives 335 seats at the coming election, and Labour 219, leaving in a House of 615 all told 61 seats to be divided between Liberals and Independents. This estimate means that the Conservatives ought to return to power with a majority of from 50 to 60 over their combined opponents. It would appear that this forecast is based chiefly upon figures supplied by Conservative members, and possibly for that reason it unduly favours the Conservative chances. But it should be observed that even these conjectural results suggest a material decline in the strength of the Conservative Party and a corresponding increase for Labour. For the figures mean that the Conservatives will lose over eighty seats and that Labour will gain about seventy seats at the polls. The 1924 elections gave the (/jnservatives 421 seats, as against 194 seats held by the combined Opposition, which included 150 Labour members. Evidently even the Conservatives are driven to the conclusion that their majority is to be very substantially reduced. It is interesting to note that three months ago Mr. Wickham Steed, in the ''Review of Reviews," predicted that the Government would lose at least 100 seats at the coming elections. But he took an optimistic view of Labour prospects, expressing the belief that the party would secure from 260 to 300 seats. Evidently there is a conviction in well-informed quarters that while the Liberal Party has little hope of strengthening its position greatly, Labour will be more formidable than ever in itfce flwett jPtarliament. But even on these foretflfce should still have a fair the other parties