THE SATURATION POINT.

Auckland Star, Volume LVI, Issue 184, 6 August 1925, Page 2 (Supplement)

THE SATURATION POINT.

DOES IT EXIST? AMERICA'S FINAL GOAL. APPLIED TO NEW ZEALAND. Whether there is a saturation point— a limit in the number of motors a country can support —is a question which has from time to time raised considerable discussion in the industry. Primarily a country's limitation in motor ownership depends on its purchasing power, and in this connection it is obvious that continued prosperity of the Dominion is a very material factor in stimulating importation. In deciding whether there is an ultimate limit in importations the nature of that limit has first to be determined and another important factor is the life of a motor and the replacement question.

One turns again to America as the largest producer ln discusamg this subject, and it is interesting to note that a recent statement from the hub of the motor industry considers that the U.S.A. can tjupport 27,000,000 motor vehicles. This figure is based on the hypothesis that every family will own a vehicle. At present there are estimated to be 17,500,000 motor vehicles in the U.S.A., one for every seven people, and by the end of the present year it is anticipated that the 19,000,000 mark will be rounded.

It is estimated that 500,000 cars of American design will be sold abroad this year while the replacement figure is put down to a modest two millions. To reach the 19,000,000 mark this year America will have to maintain her annual production of four millions. Assuming that this is maintained in the future, and making a liberal allowance for the increased replacement figure, it is apparent that the 27,000,000 mark or that sublime condition when every family owns its own "flivverijjh will not obtain for about a decade ancF»a-half. There has still not been taken into account the

population increase, enormous in a huge population of a hundred million, nor the inventive mind of the American. Probably before another twenty years the American will have devised some other means of family transportation and enjoyment!

To adopt the American idea of a vehicle for every family and apply it to New Zealand with its present population of nearly one and a half millions we find that every family would have a motor car when there are over 400,000 vehicles here (the average family being three and a-half people). This figure is about three and a-half times the present number registered. At the present rate of importation—about 20,000 annually—it would take 15 years before every home would have its own motor. And there is still the replacement and population aspects to be taken into view. To boil the question down New Zealand can go on importing at the present rate as far as this generation is concerned, provided her national wealth will allow it. That is, of course, on the hypothesis that every family is to have a motor.