The Auckland Star: WITH WHICH ARE INCORPORATED The Evening News, Morning News and The Echo. FRIDAY, OCTOBER 6, 1016. DURATION AND EFFORT.

Auckland Star, Volume XLVII, Issue 239, 6 October 1916, Page 4

The Auckland Star: WITH WHICH ARE INCORPORATED The Evening News, Morning News and The Echo.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 6, 1016. DURATION AND EFFORT.

For the cause that lacks assistance, For the wrong that needs resistance, For the future in the distance, And the good that ice can do.

In discussing the duration of the war the other day we said that while it seemed more than possible that victory iwould be achieved in the summer of 1917, we must prepare for the possibility, and even the probability, of the' war lasting much longer. That there was justification for this warning is shown by Mr. Lloyd George's "never again" statement, and by the remarks of the Chief of the Imperial General Staff, published to-day. Mr. Lloyd George said there was "no disposition on our side to. fix the. hour of ultimate victory. We are undej.no delusion that the -war is nearing its end. We have not the slightest doubt bow it is going to end." Sir William Robertson warns the people of Britain that they must be prepared "to continue the war for a time which at present is not estimable." It is interesting_ to see what a competent outsider thinks. Mr. Frank dealt with the question in a long article some weeks ago, just before Rumania entered; and came to the'conclusion*; that a four-year war was probable. As we have quoted Mr. Simonds several times, we may explain that he is one of 'the most competent non-professional critics in America, and that his signed articles on the war have won him a reputation beyond his own country. He is associate editor of the "Tribune," the most proAlly of the great American newspapers, and no doubt a good many of those very j able and eloquent leading articles on the war which have been quoted in .Allied countries have been written by him. Mr.! Simonds says that whereas in the early days of the. war there was little support for Lord Kitchener's forecast of a three years' war, "it is becoming clear that the most conservative observers are inclining to the belief not merely that Kitchener's forecast will be made good, hut that the termination of the war will come in 1918, and not in 1917." He notes that it is in Great Britain, where, co he says, the theory of a short war was most generally held, that the idea of a four-year war is making most progress. "To suppose that the end the Allies mean to attain can be attained this year seems to mc unreasonable. To suppose that, knowing or believing that they can attain it, and perceiving what the cost to them will be if they do not attain it, they 'will stop short oi it, seems to mc equally incredible. And this is why I share the belief that is held in many quarters abroad that the war will continue into 1918, that it will be a fouryear -war, and that it will end inside German frontiers." .We do not endorse this forecast; we merely wish to keep steadily before our readers- the possibility or probability that next year will not see the end.

j Obviously the extension of the war until 1918 would demand a proportionately greater effort from the British Empire. As we have repeatedly pointed out, Great Britain has done a good deal more in proportion than the Dominions; yet we find in Britain official anxiety as to the supply of men. Fresh supplies for the Army and the munition factories are urgently needed. They will be obtained at the expense of ordinary production. The value of Britain's exports for the first five months of 1916 was £194,000,000, an amazing figure' even when full allowance is made for the rise in values. The maintenance of export trade facilitates the financing of the war ; but if it is a choice between maintaining export trade and -getting suffi-. cient men to achieve such a victory as is necessary for our future safety, exports must go to the wall. The trade will remain substantial, but if the war lasts another year or eighteen months a considerable decline in volume can hardly be avoided. There remains the question of recruiting in Ireland. Included in calculations of the Allies' strength are the populations of the , United Kingdom/sad the Doniiiiioim, not t»<n!ention_lndia. But each, inchmion, glaonW be *«omp«nred by tecognißnu-'Ofl the-fact that compulsion has not been

applied in Ireland, with, a population of over 4,000,000, or in Canada, with a population of over 7,000,000. It is about to be employed in New Zealand's population of over 1,000,000, and in Australia, which hag a population of 5,000,000, the question is about to be put to the popular vote, the Government having in the meantime called up men compnlsorily. Excluding South Africa there are, therefore;. 12,500,000 white people, and if we include"taustralia, 17,500,000, in the Empire outside;- Britain to whom compulsion has not yet. been applied. It is therefore misleading" to say that the | whole manhood of the Empire has been thrown into the scale.

Sir Edward Carson asks what Australia and Canada will say to "shirk-1 ing Ireland, who refuses to hearken to the call of the Irishmen in the trenches." Perhaps they may say hard things, but are they without sin |themselves? It is stated that recruiting among the French-Canadians is proportionately less than in the Nationalist districts of Ireland. Sir Edward Carson may be quite justified In again raising the question of conscription in Ireland, but he is hardly the right man to do so, seeing that his policy in Ulster has been largely responsible for the present situation in the south, which would make the introduction of compulsion very difficult and dangerous. To our mind it is very doubtful whether the British Government will take such a step. In calculating the strength o£ the Empire, allowance must be made for the situation in Ireland and for the difficulty of introducing compulsion in Canada. In Australia the plain language of the Chief of the Imperial Staff will not go unheeded by those who have to vote on October 28. The conclusion of the matter is that men must be obtained, and that if the war is going to last .until the middle of 1918 it will impose sacrifices on the Empire greater than those already made.