THE ELECTORAL SHUFFLE.

Auckland Star, Volume XLII, Issue 193, 15 August 1911, Page 7

THE ELECTORAL SHUFFLE.

SOME PUZZLED POLITICIANS. • HEADS I WOT, TAHiS YOTJ LOSE." ' I ALTERED BOUNDARIES. fljy Telejrapn.— Parliamentary Reporter.) WELLINGTON, Monday. Jhe one topic among Parliamentarians to-day has been the revision of the electoraf boundaries, and, until the "Gazette Extraordinary' appeared about mid-day. speculation was rife among the members whose individual anxiety was not inconsiderable concerning the changes which would be brought about by the comparative ebb and flow of population among the different electorates. Even when the "Gazette" appeared, much still remained Jn doubt owing to the non-arrival of the maps; but. so far as the North was concerned, the significant alterations, it could be seen, were confined to three or four of the electorates. Cabinet Ministers as a body discreetly pbsented themselves from the whirligig of speculation, or, with equal discretion, remained dumb on the burning topic of possibilities and probabilities. The boundaries of the Auckland City seats are not very materially altered, Central cutting out some of City East, wnich, in its turn, takes a slice out of Grey Lynn, while the last-named now spreads into the old territory of Eden. The big increase of Eden in population during the past half decade has been responsible for a general retreat of its boundaries, which have been encroached upon from all sides —Parnell, Waitemata, Grey Lynn, and Manukau having all participated in the partition. Parnell is another electorate which, although gaining something from Eden, has been Bhorn of a pretty big slice, a great increase of population in Remuera and the surrounding district being doubtless responsible for the drawing in of its frontier to the benefit of Manukau. Tha loss include? the now fairly populous Ellerslie Town District and also the whole of the Tlamaki Riding. Manukau, besides stepping into Parnell and Eden, has something to say about Franklin, for it now includes all the area between the Great South-road an,, the Tamaki River which formerly belonged to Mr. Massey's electorate. Franklin has, in fact, been dipped into pretty heavily, the new electorates of Raglan and Thames both being heavy aggressors, thfc former running right up to and including the township of Pukekohe, while Thames has swept across the railway line a few miles south of Mercer, and holds the country in a solid block from the Waikato to the Paeroa almost to Taupiri. Ohinemuri now includes Te Aroha, Waiorongomai, and Katikati, while Tauranga recedes from Cambridge on the Ohinemuri side, but reaches out the other way to include Rotorua, whlh Te Puke township is now just within its boundaries.

Waikato is now a very different looking electorate on the map from the old Waikato, having extended itself in between Raglan and Taumarunui to the coast between Kawhia and Aotea harbours, while it has drawn in along the Waikato river to within a few miles of Hamilton, and has wedged forward to a ebarp angle at Taupo, cutting somewhat into both Tstmrarunui and Bay of Plenty. . The Taumarunui elrctorate, while losing a considerable taction in the north, has also been liWpped Of all its old country south of tVe township, oi Taumarunui, which hsr.s been absorbed try Rangitikei.

In the far North the alterations have not been very extensive. The new Bay of Islands electorate now includes thfc country south beyond Hikurangi on the one hand, and, following the course of the Wairoa River to the Tangihua, goes off north i again, its southern boundary on the west being just north of the Waipoua river. 'The Kaipara electorate is not greatly •ltered, while Marsden, losing a little in the north and along some of its western boundary, cuts into Waitemata to include the district south of Warkworth, almost to Waiwera, which is now just Within the Waitemata boundary.

THE POLITICAL POSITION. POSSIBLE CHANGES. AND PROBABLE FIXTURES. (By, Telegraph.—Parliamentary Eeporter.) WELLINGTON, Monday. Opinion among members is in the nature of thingß very divided as to the work of the Boundary Commission, for, while in several instances the note is very much like a cry of despair, touched with more than a dash of candid criticism, there are equally frequent instances of general content with the new aspect. It is noteworthy, also, that the discontents are to be found just as numerously among the Liberal as among the Opposition members; in short, largely speaking, but a comparative few appear to be able definitely to decide how the change will affect their political chances, which in itself is an indication of the necessity for some thinking before the summing up. Speaking in open terms, which is all that can be ventured up to the present, a feeling is prevalent among those best able to judge that among the electorates ■hout Auckland City that of Manukau is most likely to be affected in its political colour by the revision. This electorate, which is at present in the hands of the Opposition, has gathered within its new boundaries a population which has always been largely in evidence in support of Liberalism at the ballot box. Ellerslie and the surrounding district on the one end, and Otahuhu on the other, both being dependable Government centres. Iu the words of one who is able to gauge the political situation with a shrewdly critical eye, "Manukau, under its altered geographical position, should become an almost certain gain to the Liberal benches, providing the right man stands." The loser on the other side in thiß shuffle appears to bo Parnell, for, shorn of Ellerslic and the whole of the Tamaki riding, opinion is freely expressed among the cogniscenti here that the forces will be marshalled on much more equal terms than herebefore. Among Parh'amentarians it is considered, in the first blush, that there will be a new phase probable in the coming • campaign, and a new plan of operations initiated in both camps respecting these two electorates of ParHell and Manukau. In Franklin it is pretty generally recognised that Mr. Massey has lost a valuable stronghold in Pukekohe, but*,

on the other hand, the loss of a large portion of Otahuhu will probably not be unduly mourned, by the Leader of the Opposition, while, as to the wide area that has been absorbed by Thames, al though it is essentially a rural vote, the comparative, sparsity of population diminishes the apparent loss to something altogether disproportionate one way or the other to the reading of the mem map. The Thames electorate, which hitherto has been almost entirely a mining constituency, will now have within its borders the rather complex admixture of the rural and mining vote. When questioned on the ontlook the present member remarked succinctly: "It appears to me to 'be a most mad-brained arrangement, but what effect it will have on the political aspect generally and on my individual prospects it is impossible for me to say. My electorate has .been nearly doubled, and practically the whole of the addition is rural voting. I know really nothing as yet of th ! s country, and am net, therefore, able to express an opinion on the new factor. As far as 'colour*' is concerned, it has, of course, yet to be seen whether my old electors will object or not, but if not, well, I shall just have to go along and find friend 3 in the new area." The other mining electorate of the peninsula, Ohinemuri, will lose nothing from the Liberal standpoint, according to the point of view gathered among those best calculated to know, but at means that the three hotels of Te Arolia will probably run dry unless the unexpected happens. The new electorate of Raglan is already exercising the speculative faculties of those in the political vortex, and. from the varied opinions heard, it is evident that this new territory is as yet regarded by a good many as "no man's land," for, while it includes country that has been "a very present help in times of trouble" to Liberal candidates, it also embraces districts that have been looked upon as staunch Opposition centres one way or another. Therefor* it would appear that neither side of the House will gain this scat except after a hard fought tussle.

SPECULATIONS. The opinion seems to be that the alterations in the Bay of Islands, Marsden, Kaipara and Waitemata electorates are not of any great political significance, while the same can b e said of the districts represented by the Hon. G. Fowlos, Messrs. Myers, Poole and Glover. The Waikato changes are said to be pretty generally in favour of the sitting member. As for Tauranga, it is considered in some quarters that under the alterations, a strong opponent could make the running pretty lively for Mr. Herries; but this is, after all, the vaguest speculation at present. Mr. Mac Donald's position in the Bay of Plenty is conceded all round to have been strengthened, while Gisborne has been made a pocket borough for Sir James Carroll. Hawke's Bay, also, is looked upon as having become more consolidated in its Liberal prospects, while it is probable that the alterations for Waipawa will result in a contest between Mr. Jull and the sitting member, Mr. Hall, though friends of the latter consider_ his position to bo quite safe. Master ton presents no great change. The leader of the Opposition's seat (Franklin) has been badly cut up, but it appears that he has retained his stronghold, and he reckons that his chances of success are greater than before, seeing that, by the restriction of boundaries, he has concentrated the forces in his favour.

Taranaki changes are in favour of the Opposition. Wanganui and Patea are not materially changed, but Rangitikei may give a lot of trouble to the sitting member (Mr R, W. Smith), for whom Sir Jas Carroll and the Hons. T. Mackenzie and J. A. Millar fought so hard a couple of years ago.

Wairarapa leaves the contest practically as it was between the sitting member (Mr W. C. Buchanan) and his protagonist and ex-member (Mr J. T. M. Hornsby) renowned for the challenge he once threw down to the late Mr Seddon to come and contest the seat against him. Even now—that was some years ago —it is said that Mr ■ Hornsby regards it as one of bis pleasantest memories that Richard John did not take him at his word.

The changes in the Manawatu elector ate are said to he distinctly adverse to Mr R. McNab (formerly Minister of Lands), who, it is suggested, will, if elected, be a certain pick for a seat in the ministrv formed to meet the new House next June.

There has been a lot of chopping and changing about the seats in the hinterland of Wellington, but nothing to givi» rise to more than the ordinary amount of speculation. OPPOSITIONISTS PLEASED. The Otago portion of the South Island is viewed by the Opposition with consider able satisfaction.' The member for Wakatipu (Mr W. Eraser) considers that tho redistribution is distinctly in his interest. Mr J. A. Allen (Bruce) has had returned to his sphere of influence areas which were aiorctime the synonym of Opposition support, and Mr Anderson, of Mataura, who defeated the ex-Minister' of Lands and Agriculture (Mr R. McNab), reckons that he has been fairly done by in the cutting up of his electorate. GOING HOME? The extinctirn of the Taieri scat, which was not unexpected, has in the lobbies, at any rate, the effect of putting a premium on the Hon. T. Mackenzie's chances of" going Home as High Commis sioner. Eyen the Opposition, though inclined to depreciate the-strength of the claim, are apparently unwilling to 'deny the probability. MINISTERIALISTS SAFE. Viewed from a Ministerial standpoint, the position in the South is regarded as quite safe. Sir Joseph Ward, Mr. Hanan (Invercargill), and Mr. J. C. Thomson (Wallace) are not in the least likely to be affected, whilst the Hon. T. Millar's prospects are declared to have been proved.Glancing at the Dunedin seats, it is seen that Dunedin Central has been "hacked" about for Mr. Arnold, whilst Mr. Sidey has lost many friends in the severance of Caversham, the district in which his public life has been centred.

IN CANTERBURY. Coming further North, it is evident that Sir Win. Steward (Waitaki) will find the ensuing contest harder than usual, even apart from the changes of boundaries that have taken place, whil* Mr. E. H. Clark (Chalmers) has been relegated to an almost entirely new sphere of operations, and is not too sure of the result. The changes in the Oamaru electorate are said to be against the chance of the Hon. T. Duncan (ex-Minister of Lands), and political croakers are already prophesying his downfall. Incidentally, it may be added' that the Opposition has Arranged for a candidate to contest the Awarua seat against Sir Joseph Ward, but thay we not saying i very much about it at present.

I The member for Belwyn (Mr. Hardy) I is pleased -with the change that has taken i place in his electorate. He has lost i the Midland railway portion that was | against him, thus, he believes, insuring ! his return, while the anti-Hardy section i has been turned over to Mr. Forbes (Hurunui), who is more than pleased to have had such an accession to his ranks. There is not much comment on the Canterbury Beats generally. Both sides seem to I>e very well satisfied. It is agreed that the Hon. D. Buddo has improved his position in Kaiapoi, whilst Mr. Laurenton has certainly donfc likewise in securing more of the peninsula. Mr. Davey has lost some good terri. Tory, but extensions elsewhere are thought to more than compensate for this. Mr. Ell is regarded as an easy holder of Christchurch South, as it stands todav, and Mr. Withy should have no difficulty in remaining in- Parliament. The alteration to Ashburton, it is thought, will be no improvement to the Bitting member (Mr. Nosworthy). Temuka has been largely extended, ■which means much more work for Mr. Buxton, but it is considered he is quite safe. Mr. Craigie now has almost a pocket borough in Timaru.

ON THE WEST COAST. On the West Coast it is evident that the forces of the Opposition are to be strongly arranged against Mr. H. W. Field, who has held the seat for the last fifteen years, succeeding his brother, the late Mr. Harry Field, who was the first to wrest the seat from the Opposition in the early days of the Seddon regime. Mr. Field is, and has been for som e time, perfectly aware that he is up against a strong Opposition movement, but his chances are distinctly improved by the fact that the enemy ia divided. Mr. Byron Brown, who ran him to a close finish last election, has fallen out with the recognised Opposition candidate (Mr. Monckton), and in a few days their differences will t>e explained in the Supreme Court at Palmerston, per medium of a libel action between the two parties. Mr. Field will probably climb to the top of. the poll. A Government candidate, it is held, will have a better chance in Oroua as it now stands. With regard to Manawatu, this should bring Messrs. Muldoon (Government) and Newman (Oppositionist sitting member) together. The latter, losintf Foxton, has not gained anything. Taumaninui has been considerably reduced to strengthen Mr. Jennings, whilst the loss of Inglewood is a blow at Mr. Dives' stronghold. Mr. T. Seddon is pleased with the alteration to Westland, and Mr. Colvin is likewise satisfied, and the change should not affect him. The Hon. Roddie McKenrie is declared to be perfectly safe in Motueka, whilst the alteration may make a little more work for Sir Arthur Guinness. Seeing that it comes almost to his door it cannot jeopardise his chances.