The Auckland Star: WITH WHICH ARE INCORPORATED The Evening News,Morning News and The Echo. MONDAY, JANUARY 16, 1905. THE SITUATION IN MANCHURIA.

Auckland Star, Volume XXXVI, Issue 13, 16 January 1905, Page 4

The Auckland Star: WITH WHICH ARE INCORPORATED The Evening News, Morning News and The Echo.

MONDAY, JANUARY 16, 1905. THE SITUATION IN MANCHURIA.

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; At last, after many weary weeks of waiting there has been a revival of military activity at k the front in Manchuria. Our cables show that the Russians have made a bold ? though unsuccessful attempt to cut the Japanese communication between Laao-yang and the sea. At the same time, reports reach us of an attack upon Yinhow, the port of Niu-ehwang, a fight between Japanese cavalry and Cossacks at a village to the south-east of Liao-yang, and the repulse of a Cossack raid upon the Korean border. All these are cavalry operations, and tlioy show that Kuropatkin is attempting to take advantage of his immense superiority in this arm. Nothing in the conduct of the war has surprised Continental military experts more than the comparative inactivity of the cavalry on both sid&s.The Japanese have never had a cavalry force that eouid compare with the best European cavalry; though on the occasions on which they have met the Russian cavalry they have always given a good account of themselves. It was that the Japanese would be able to make use of the Chunc-huses as irregular cavalry: and English authorities have continually expressed astonishment that these were not constantly employed by Japan to cut the Russian railway. On the other hand, the Russian light cavalry has always been classed among the best in the world, and great disappointment has been expressed in Russia because the Cossacks have done so little to keep up their reputation. Up to Liao-yang the fighting was chiefly in hilly country which was almost impracticable for cavalry; and the fact that Rennenkampt\ the "Rnpert of the East/ was severely wounded in the battle of Yentai may help to explain Kuropatkin's failure to give the Cossacks constant employment. General Mistchencko is well known as a dashing and adventurous officer, and he is one of the few Russian commanders -who have come out of the war so far with credit. He has chosen a line .of advance that took him clear of the hill country and though his attempt was not likely to succeed he has fulfilled one of the most important duties that fall to the lot of a cavalry leader by harassing the enemy and compelling him to bestow additional care upon his line of communications. Tnough it may be something of a surprise for our readers to learn of Cossack squadrons so far south as Niuehwan on the west and the Korean border on the east of Manchuria, there is nothing in these movements to cause the Japanese army serious anxiety. Oyama has shown that he is guarding carefully against all contingencies, and in every case the Cossacks have been beaten off with loss. But there is a point of view from which these operations assume a very serious aspect. To reach Yinhow, General Mistchenko has had to pass through Chinese territory. In strict accuracy, the whole of Manchuria is Chinese, and the fighting there has been a violation of Chinese neutrality throughout. But both Russia and Japan undertook to confine hostilities to Manchuria so as to prevent the necessity for the intervention of China, and so far that arrangement has been observed. Now, however, there can be no doubt tha€ Mistchenko's movement to the west of the Liaoho has taken him over the Manchurian border, and constitutes a direct breach of Chinese neutrality. j We have now to see whether Japan will call upon China to preserve her neutrality by force. A few months ago General Ma, with 50,000 well armed and disciplined troops, was on the Mongolian frontier, but was withdrawn on BsssKt's protest that his presence might lead to an accidental collision between Kuropatkin's troops and the Chinese, ie is probable that he will be ordered to obstruct the further passage of Russian troops to the west of the Liaoho and this may lead to very momentous consequences. We know that Russia has an agreement with France providing for assistance from the Republic if any "thud. Power" intervenes & this wax. Ob

the other hand, more than one responsible French statesman lias asserted that China is not included within the scope of the term "third power." as the war I is reaDy being carried on in her tern- , tory. At present France is well disposed toward us. and is not likely to take any course that might bring aer into conflict with England—a result that would certainly ensue, by virtue of the Anglo-Japanese agreement, if France were to aid Russia. But the Dual Alliance is a strong bond of union, and the defeat of the French Ministry just cabled may bring into power an administration less amicably disposed toward England. Again, we do not know what Germany and Russia have agreed to do in case China intervenes; but we know that Germany is very anxious about the future of her acquisition? in Shantung, and rather than lost Kiaochau she might be disposed to embark with Russia upon a project for the dismemberment of China —more especially if, as in 1895. they could secure the assistance of France. Altogether the situation produced by the movement of Russian troops to the west of the Liaoho is very critical; more especially in view of the proclamation just published by Russia to the effect that China has not preserved a correct attitude, and that Russia is therefore, absolved from her obligations under the law of neutrals. All this, however, still lies in the realm of conjecture; and the few facts which we have to go upon at present are not very instructive. Ever since the battle of the Shaho, the two great armies have been entrenching themselves in the valley of the Hun, a few miles south of Mukden. According to recent accounts both Russians and Japanese have thrown up such strong lines of defence that ordinary field artillery would be almost useless against them. This may explain the natural anxiety of the Russians to intercept Xogi's heavy suns on their way north from Port Arthur. There is no reason why either army should not make an offensive movement at any moment, so far as the conditions of fighting are concerned. The Manchurian roads are at their best in \Anter, and we may be sure that nothing but strategical considerations has held the armies motionless so long. Kuropatkin has of course been reinforcing his army since the sanguinary struggle on the Sha in which the Russian casualties in killed and wounded came to at least 60.000 men. Allowing for the increased efficiency of the Siberian railway, which under the able management of Prince Khilkoff is now working well, we may assume that Kuropatkin's losses at Liaoyang and the Shaho have been repaired, and that he has now fully 2"0,000 men and 1000 guns. He has rrorganised his army in three divisions, each to consist of four army corps and two rifle brigades ; and it is anticipated at St Petersburg that by the spring each of these divisions will number 150,000 men. On the Continent it is held that the troops now being poured into Manchuria from Europe are superior in quality to those employed earlier in the war. It is interesting to note, however, that an Italian correspondent lately at Russian headquarters states in the "Times" that the Siberian troops are really better fighting material than the western contingents; and M. Danchenko, the famous Russian war correspondent, warns his countrymen that the Japanese as soldiers are man for man superior to Russians. On the other side, Oyama has been steadily maturing the development of his plans and reinforcing his armies. The fall of Port Arthur will give him perhaps 80,----000 or 90,000 splendid troops and the best heavy artillery possessed by Japan. Even before Stoessel surrendered, Oyama had probably 300,000 troops; for at the Sha the Japanese outnumbered the Russians, and as they fought chiefly behind defences their loss was comparatively small. It follows that the Japanese will have in the field by the spring three armies that will be at least equal in number to Kuropatkin's, and will surpass it in most of the fighting qualities that go to ensure success. While the railway from the south is being adapted to the needs of his army, and his supplies are steadily accumulating, Oyama has no need for haste; and now that Port Arthur has fallen he can wait Kuropatkin's decision with equanimity. It is Russia's next move in the war game, and Japan is not likely to anticipate her antagonist rashly.