The Auckland Star: WITH WHICH ARE INCORPORATED The Evening News, Morning News and The Echo. TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1903. THE FAR EASTERN CRISIS.

Auckland Star, Volume XXXIV, Issue 304, 22 December 1903, Page 4

The Auckland Star: WITH WHICH ARE INCORPORATED The Evening News, Morning News and The Echo.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1903. THE FAR EASTERN CRISIS.

for tut ewN that lock* Mtwtaioe, Per thu won? th*t need* resittamm, Ft the future in the Sutanee, Ana tin good tfort -ice cm i».

The situation in Korea and North China remains practically unchanged, but every day's delay without a defiite settlement of the conflicting claims of Russia and Japan increases tie probability of war. As far as signs and omens can help us, ther« seems little human probability of averting th<» desperate struggle for which our allies baye been so long preparing. The departure of war correspondents from London for the Far East does not necessarily mean that the conflict is inevitable; but the information which such men as Dr. Morrison and Mr Bennet Burleigh have lately supplied is disquieting to the last degree. In Tokyo Mr Burleigh, who has seen more wars than most living generals, finds on every side proof that the Japanese are not only eager for war, but ready to begin at a moment's notice. The crisis in the Japanese Parliament a few weeks ago, when the L/o-wer House denounced the Ministry for temporising with Russia, has helped to precipitate the course of events. Ito and Yamagata, the founders of modern Japan, are said to be in favour of striking a blow at once, while Katsura, the present Chief Minister, is also the leader of the military party and the organiser of the Japanese Army. They know that they have the people behind them to a man, for even the boys fin their schools look. forward to fighting the Russians when tuey are grown up. And it does not require any special diplomatic skill to discern that the present moment is the best opportunity that Japan will ever find to assert her strength, and to secure herself from the coming danger that even now seems imminent. After Manrhuria, Korea, after Korea, Japan —that is manifestly thti Russian programme; and Japan does not intend to be assimilated without a struggle. Perhaps the most- probable of all the prophecies recently offered for our consideration is the warning just cabled that the Japanese will strike their blow before the Russian naval reinforcements from Bizerta can reach the Yellow Sea.

The position of affairs in Manchuria, is, of course, unaltered. The Powera seem to have arrived at the somewhat extraordinary conclusion that no one could reasonably expect Russia te withdraw from the country -which she has repeatedly bound herself by solemn pledges not to annex. Russian newspapers point to the immense sums spent by Russia upon her railways and military works in Manchuria and ask if all thie is to go for nothing, calmly ignoring the fact that Russia has expended all this money in defiance of her promises to China and the Powere. Bat not even Japan has any intension of attempting to drive Russia, out of Manchuria; and this fertile country, with i-ts twenty millions of inhabitants and immense potential wealth, has fallen into Russian hands without the necessity for firing a single shot. Japan cannot forget haw Russia, after the Chinese war, compelled her to retire from Port Arthur, and then annexed it; but she could could hardly hope to hold permanently and without assistance, this immense tract of country; and. her ambitions and apprehensions are alike concentrated upon Korea. To give up Korea would be to surrender one of the traditional aspirations of hep people, to lose her only chance of an outlet for her superfluous population, and to bring the Russian advance down to her own borderline. The statesmen who rule Japan know that the people will submit to none of these things, and that if they did the doom of Japan's independence would be irrevocably sealed. It may suit Viscount Hayashi, the Japanese Minister at London, to cry "peace" for diplomatic purposes, when there is no peace. But the Japanese are not easily to be deluded. Orientals themselves, they have never been for a moment deceived by the thoroughly Oriental diplomatic methods which Russia prefers. The "Times" has lately congratulated them upon "the great i sagacity and circumspection" with :-which they have conducted their affairs Sunder very trying circumstances; but they have no intention of being cajoled by Russia. It is of course impossible to say exactly what terms Japan has Russia, but it seems generally agreed that the Japanese ultimatum demands absolute and final recognition of Japan's predominance in Korea. A partition of Korea is of course not to jbe thought of; nor is it likely that 'japan will consent to the establishment J of Russian naval bases, which, in eonI junction with Vladivostok, would soon jnake her position in Korea untenable. When the history of the present year comes to be written, future generations ■will probably learn that the great RussoJapanese war was begun by Japan on L Russia's refusal to yield Korea to her. If war be the outcome of ail this diplomacy, it is still impossible to predict with any hope of accuracy th? final result of I'lt" si niggle. It Japan fights Russia single handed, her naval superiority in eastern seas will enable her to pour hundreds of thousands of troops rapidly into Korea and Manchuria. In spite of the immense numerical superiority of her army Russia will find it very hard to maintain military communication along the single line of the Siberian railway, and the immense distance of Manchuria from Europe .will play into tha hands

of the Japanese. It is quite possible that Japan will gain advantages at the outset that may entirely change the face of the situation. It has been evident for a long time past that Japan lias been anxious to win. the confidence of China; and it ia more than probable that if Japan can gain a temporary success against Russia, China will cast in her lot with her old enemy against the dreaded Northern invader. China fears Russia, but has no reason to love her, and if England had taken a bold stand against Russia five years ago she could have depended upon all the help that Cbina can supply. Though it may be impossible for Japan to hold Manchuria herself, yet the coui.tless millions of China could produce a force against ■which,- trained and officered by Japanese, even 'Russia might waste her strength in vain. It is difficult to say what effect the interference of China would have upon France who might feel constrained to assist Russia. But, the friendly relations now happily subsisting between England and France render it improbable that France will take any step which might bring her into conflict with England; and England is bound b} , the Anglo-Japanese alliance to intervene if Russia is assisted by allies against Japan. It is, therefore, possible that Japan may be left to face Russia alone or with the possible assistance of Cbina; and in either case the conflict is by no means so unequal as the re.lative areas of the rivals might suggest. "The struggle." says Alexis Krausse, "will not be between two nations alike keen on obtaining a victory. It will rest between one united nation, keen, patriotic, and resolved to venture its last drop of blood in the contest; and an overwhelming officialism lacking all finer qualities than persistency and a greed for expansion at the expense of its neighbours. Every Japanese is a patriot at heart. Your Russian fights well, but he lacks that inspiriting incentive which renders nations like Japan, the United States, and England indomitable foes, whose onslaught will brook no repulse, and whose destiny is victory." The war between Russia and Japan, v.ith all its terrible contingencies, may yet be avoided, but if it comes, Englishmen throughout the world will hope for the ultimate triumph of our gallant allies.