FOREIGN FORESIGHT.

Auckland Star, Volume XXXI, Issue 65, 17 March 1900, Page 1 (Supplement)

FOREIGN FORESIGHT.

STRIKING PREDICTIONS,

Everyone now perceives the gross miscalculation somewhere in the past, which the present awakening' implies. For this .miscalculation the Government must, according to the Liberal organs, be held responsible. Meanwhile, it is of curious interest to recall some predictions which were made several months ago by "A German

Officer" in a letter, to the "Times.'' These predictions are well worth reading- to-day: —

"The question is (writes this German officer), whether England is not again, as has so often previously occurred, . UNDER-RATING HER OPPONENT, and proceeding against the foe with too few forces, and this I am convinced is the case in the present issue, notwithstanding the extent of the forces which at first sight seem to be lin employment. One is apt to overlook that just as little as the conditions of the South Africa of to-day; can be contrasted with those of a decade ago, much less is the military, power of the Boers in 1899, with their Mauser rifles, their quick-firing guns, and strategical science, comparable with that displayed by them in ISBI and 1884, when those aids were wholly wanting. Again, it appears that England is wholly deceived as regards I the number of efficient combatants at the disposal of the Transvaal and Orange Free States of to-day. You continue to appraise their number at 35,000 to 40,000 men, when it actually amounts at least to 00,000. This body of armed efficient opponents you I expect to defeat wilji a force of, all told, including the Cape and Natal Volunteers, say, at the most favourable estimate, 80,000 men. From {these 80,000 troops have to be deducted those required for KEEPING- OPEN THE REQUISITE BASE LINES as well as the forces necessary for cheeking, risings in Cape Colony and in Natal, and those needed for garrison duty in the chief centres. lam of opinion, one Avhich is freely shared by my brother staff officers, that not less than 40,000 to 45,000 will be absorbed by such considerations and necessities, leaving no more than 35,000 to 40,000 for active military operations. How can England expect to crush a force of at least 50,000 Boers with a.n army comprising at the outside 40,000 men, available for offence? Consider that these 50,000 Boers are acclimatised, they know every yard of the country and all its capacities for traps for the bravest, most competent European troops.

THEY SHOOT ADMIRABLY, " they are manoeuvred with astonishing strategical ability, already revealed in the trifling operations hitherto carried out; they can ignore questions of food and encampment to a degree out of the question with British-fed troops, and they are contending for their rotten oligarchy with the courage of despair, which has, however, been heightened hy success of a certain nature up to the present. They have found time during- their advance south to put their rear route in an able state of defence; they have spies innumerable at their services in every quarter of the operations, and, moreover, are assisted by the code telegrams which foreign representatives and Powers are still allowed to exchange, and which these "friendly' Powers are persistently abusing; they are in possession of VAST ACCUMULATION A of food, weapons, and ammunition to an extent which will enable them to prolong the war for an . indefinite period. Taking all the foregoing into due account, the conclusion has to be arrived at that if England means to come out victorious she will have to be represented jn Soutli Africft -by an immensely increased numerical force, at any rate one quite beyond the proportions of anything- as yet conceived by the public.' Is not the picture drawn by this German officer,asks the "Daily News," some weeks ago, a marvellously accurate description of the position in which we find ourselves to-day? If the realities of the case were so Avell known in Berlin, why were they hidden from our military authorities in London? Or, if our military authorities were as well informed as the German officers, why did not the Government act —and spend—from the first upon a scale proportionate to the need? It is interesting, further, to note that the German officer whom we have quoted above- suggested also some weeks ago the means by which the miscalculation might be retrieved. There are, he said:

"Thousands of trained men in. all parts of your Empire who are able and willing to proceed south. Judiciously mixed with yonr regulars they, would be quite efficient for

GAEEISONING THE CHIEF PLACES in Cape Colony and Natal, for keeping touch between columns and bases, and for overcomingl any treachery of the natives, Avhite or black. Such judicious, strengthening would have the result that the regularly trained and seasoned men conld be dispensed from such duties, and would be available for the offensive operations of. your regular army. Such men are, to my knowledge, to be had in Englaivd and in your various colonies in thousands, and an appeal from your Queen to her people in all climates "\vonld convert thousands into hundreds of thousands, from which only the best material might be chosen."