The Evening Star: WITH WHICH ARE INCORPORATED The Evening News, Morning News, and Echo. MONDAY, JANUARY 24, 1898. THE CRISIS IN THE EAST.

Auckland Star, Volume XXIX, Issue 19, 24 January 1898, Page 4

The Evening Star: WITH WHICH ARE INCORPORATED The Evening News, Morning News, and Echo.

MONDAY, JANUARY 24, 1898. THE CRISIS IN THE EAST.

For tho cause that lack 3 assistance, For tho wrong that ■ needs resistance, For the futuro in tho dictanco, And tlio cood that vo can do.

Although the recent marvellous successes of European diplomacy in postponiTig that dreaded contest of the Western nations which may render obsolete our present geographical textbooks is calculated to inspire confidence, there is no minimising the gravity of the situation in the far East. .More than once, in attempting- to regulate the affairs of the Ottoman Empire and curb the tyranny of its ruler, the Powers found it difficult- to avoid quarrels among- themselves; and that they managed things with so little friction, as .they did has always been regarded as a triumph for modern diplomacy. But it was easier for the representatives at Constantinople to maintain peaceful relations in the European household than is the cat;e to-day in connection with the complications that have arisen in China. Whatever advantage the different, parties calculated to gain by combined interference in Turkish affairs, they were not blind to the enormous risks that were involved in any attempt to dismember the Ottoman Empire. Turkey may in one sense have been ripe for partition long- ago, but that did not make it a whit the clearer how it was to be divided to the satisfaction of all who might consider themselves entitled to a share. One thing seemed abundantly clear —that it was not possible to set about cutting- up that unwholesome limb of Europe without having the rest of the Continent at daggers drawn, and probably bringing on a war that would entail ten times

more misery than any gain could justify. Too big issues, too great interests were bound up in Turkey, and the. Powers all agreed that it was too dangerous a problem to solve in the Alexandrian fashion.

Turning to China, we find a different state of affairs. Until lately there was little reason to believe that the pursuance of an aggressive policy in China by any European Power would provoke the opposition of it's neighbours. Years ago Great Britain by force of arms burst open the Chinese ports and gained a commercial interest in those waters that no other European state had or has since, possessed; and yet :not o a,;>yord raised in 'Europe, fit is only the otjher day that j Russia4,-; ancl; stilL more Recently that lUerrnajiy -,§hcl t1raiice. ((: .nave " turned : their : eyes^iiiAjth^t; direction aud decided that '"fliey 'lnirsE-'c^ut in where John Bull has already been established. Full of their new-born industrial and commercial zeal and a desire for teritorial ex-

pansion, these three Powers have, as it were, rushed upon China with quite inconsiderate impetuosity. The coast seemed all clear for them; the danger of 'European complications' which gave them pause in the case of Turkey appeared remote enough; and consequently they prosecuted their forward policy in a fashion that would have been impossible in Europe. To the absence of these restraints which

curbed even the headstrong- Empeixtr of Germany in the Turkish negotiations we may surely attribute the rapidity with which matters have as-

stcnied their present critical aspect in China. Great Britain's neighbours hare .advanced, all Unconscious that

they were on such dangerous ground, till they find that, the situation is much jnore serious than they had imagined. Probably they did not antici-

pate that England would assume the determined attitude she now does, and foresee that if she is hard driven she may prove, as she has done in the past, a very tough foe to cross.

By our cablegrams .to-night it will be seen that Germany, as represented by the press of that country, has already receded from the hostile position she took up a week or two back, and is advocating the English demands for freedom of trade with China. Whether this change of front has been induced by. the desire to avoid hostilities or, as is more likely the case, by the perception that the contentions of England, if upheld, will be to the advantage of German trade, one cannot say, but the friendly leaning of Germany at this critical stage is indicative of much. Apparently the creat opponent we have to reckon with is Russia. That Power is bent on acquiring a dominant voice in the affairs of China at all costs. On the other hand, it is equally evident that England does not mean to sacrifice her prestige and commercial jsosition in the East, and is prepared if need be to settle the question of supremacy with her rival at the point of the sword. That the question is one worth fighting for there can be no doubt in the minds of British statesmen. Indeed, they have been fighting for it hard, although no sword' has yet been, drawn. Great Britain has been doing all she can to have in her own hands the raising of the £16,000,000 loan which is being negotiated by China for payment of the .'Japanese war indemnify. Paissia, on the other hand, has spared no efforts of late to induce the Chinese to accept the loan from her on her terms, and the latest advices are to the effect that the Russian Minister is intimidating China in the matter. It is well known that the country that lends Ihe money will have enormous influence in China, hence the rivalry that

exists. Although Russia might achieve her purpose without actually ■bringing about a war, there is very great danger under the circumstances that hostilities may arise. The powder train is laid, and a very little thing can light it. The newspapers at Home take this view of the matter, and the preparations being made by the authorities indicate that there are grave apprehensions among those behind the scenes. England is not likely to submit tamely to any attempt to destroy her trade or I influence in China, and if Russia preserves an equally determined attitude jantl adds to that any act of aggression we may be prepared for the worst. | What Powers might be involved in I such a conflict, what issues hang on lit. and how it might end are questions ; far too stupendous to be prophesied ; about.