LABOR MAY CAPTURE PARNELL SEAT

BY-ELECTION AS BAROMETER

Result Will Show Which Direction Political Wind Is Blowing

JENKINS' MOVE PROVIDES A TEST

| J. A. Lee, who may | win the Parnell = seat for Labor.

THROWING down the gauntlet to his political critics, Mr. H. R. Jenkins, ex-United member, for the . constituency, has given the electors a chance to express their opinion on ..the United Party. Just what this means to the Government and to the country it is impossible to over-estimate. yParnell opinion may be taken as^symptomatic of Auckland opinion, and it was Auckland that placed the United Government m power. Nowhere, except m the northern province, has the - Government a, stronghold. ""'ThereV the swing away from Reform was :so complete at the last poll that the sole survivor of the _' giant Coates majority was Mr. A. S. Harris, a man who had been told plainly by his leader that he was not wanted at Party caucuses. And Harris survived by only 300 votes. One of* the seats plucked up by the United wave was the Pame.il conJ. G. Coates stituency, for sixteen years the seat of Mr. J. S. Dickson, "Silent Sam," the Chief Government Whip. If United fails to hold the seat, those who say that the Government has sacrificed confidence and that its Auckland supporters are insecure m their seats will be fully justified. " Two members of the Ministry, Mr. J. B. Donald and Mr. A. J. Stallworthy, are implicated m the electors' verdict, as well as Mr. A. J. Murdoch, Senior United Whip. . The contest will be one of the most strenuous and closely-fought m New Zealand's political history. And the indications are that United are doomed to a crushing defeat. At the time "Truth" went to press official candidates had not been chosen, but the field was well-filled with prospects 'who suffered defeat m 1928. Prominent among these is Mr. J. A. Lee, the witty and able former Labor member for Auckland East, who suffered a 37 votes defeat at the hands of Mr. A. B. Donald, and whose loss to the Labor Party was severe because of his power m debate. Also lining up at the starting post is Mr. J. S. Dickson, who has twice announced his intention ''to contest the Parnell seat, no matter what happens." Will Dickson get the Reform nomination for the constituency? The chances seem extremely remote. Before he was defeated two years ago, his own electorate sought to replace him with another candidate. Dickson, is weak, he runs under a big handicap, and by his publicly announced intention to run at all costs he seems to imply fears that Reform will have nothing to do with him. . Under the . sys-' tern of selection of candidates; prevailing amongst the Opposition Party, there will'be a democratic vote. In that ballot, Dickson, who is out of favor with' the

IlllllllUllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllillllllllllllf A Place In "Truth" Page Boxer's Wife m Court 2 Their Apathy Still Persists-'.... 3 Leader, Interview, Personals .. 4 War Bride's Shattered Romance 5 The Night of the Party . .. 6 "I Am Thinking Of You" ...... 7 Motor Section ••• 8 Financial 9 Boxing 10 Racing ... ; .... 11,12 Trotting 13 Out In The Open (General Sport) '.. 14,15 Women's Section 16,17 "Truth's" Service Bureau ....... 18

(From "N.Z. Truth's" Special Political Investigator.)

intiiniiiiiHiiiiitiiiiiiiiiiK imMimmiiiMmimmiMiiuii.umiiiimMHmumHminMuinmuimnminimnmnum At a critical moment m its history the United Government is faced § with another by-election, this time not of its own choosing. | The looming contest m Parnell electorate is more vital than the | "split-vote" issue at Hutt, which followed the retirement of Mr. T. M. | Wilford from Parliamentary life. Wilford was not safely settled m his | seat, and would have been defeated by the fluent Walter Nash at the last 1 general election had not Reform decided to give him a clear field. In | the case of Parnell, the issue is very different. j In this articled "Truth's" Special Political Investigator sums up the §. Parnell possibilities./ 1

dominant Remuera class, is sure to suffer. . '. . '. ;. v A powerful candidate m the Reform interest would be Mr. E. H. Northcroft, a lawyer of large and: a sportsman, but. he has declined to stand, for business reasons. If >the ' Reform Party decide not to endorse Jenkins as their official candidate, they will kill any chance of regaining the seat, no matter howpopular their candidate may be, for with Jenkins m the field, and a United candidate to be reckoned with, the anti-Labor vote will. be. split four, ways. if this happens, and if J. A. Lee is the Labor candidate, m. an electorate where

and Dickson is endorsed by Reform, it is almost certain that- Jenkins will still hold the seat; but m a five-man contest he has little. hope. This review of the possibilities does not take into consideration the chances of the United candidate for the seat. It does so for ' the excellent reason that he has no chancer A candidate of the Liberal -Laboh type, such as the unsuccessful James Kerr, would have no hope- ••'in— Parnelli where Remuera's , twelve pollingbooths dominate the . field. It has been reported that Mr. W. C. Hewitt has announced himself as a Liberal-Labor candidate. This report I

Has decided to force. the political issue m Parnell. Mr. H. R. Jenkins, who resigned his seat.

alty, would be a, good man, but he would be foolish .'to abandon Waitemata, where he has a great chance. , Mr. J. ■U." Wells's advancing, years rule him out, as: ill-health rules out the popular Mr. F. Bui'bush, treasurer I of the Auckland -United Executive, and pressure of his practice the possible Dr. Gunson. '•<■'■. ALTERNATIVE Probably : Macindoe would be the best man, but 'with business m its present state ; lie is unlikely to be able to afford the time for indulgence m a political flutter. Failing , these men, the- alternative for. the. Government Party, is' unknown. If 'the United candidate polls one'vote m six it will be as Much" -as he can, for the Liberal vote m Parnell is not substantial. And if he fails . badly .it will be the most' complete answer to critics of Jenkins's decision to abandon the Government Party.