England and Germany: Will They Fight ?

New Zealand Graphic, Volume XLV, Issue 13, 28 September 1910, Page 47

England and Germany: Will They Fight ?

By

William Bayard Hale.

THEY are talking, in Europe, of a V’ar —a Avar in which two of the most powerful nations would face each other, with th? largest armies and the biggest navies ever envisaged in battle; with weapons more destructive than any ever used before. It would be a war stupifying in the suffering •that it would entail, prodigious in its effect upon the lives of two peoples, colossal in the scale to which it would almost inevitably develop, stupendous in the possibilities of universal conflict which it Avould open. It does not require imagination to see the spread of this war till it should rage over all Europe, call Japan again to arms, make China a battlefield, and weaken or break the hold of home governments on widely scattered colonies; it rather requires ingenuity to find grounds for hoping that it would not extend its effects to both hemispheres and to all continents. What two nations want to light? asks the writer, an American journalist. No two. W'hat two nations have a known quarrel? No two. Who, then, are expected to provide this war? England and Germany Wherever English nu n or Germans meet, be they diplomats or public ists or business men, on the street, at home, in the clubs, one invariable subject comes up and is discussed with grave voices. Discussion is little help to enlightenment, for nobody knows- not even the chiefs of iState —why Germany and England should fight, yet somehow the groups alwaysseparate with the deepened conviction that they will. The war talk is not new. It has been going on for three years. It refuses to die out; it deepens in seriousness and volume. There was a moment, early last spring, when it manifested itself. The public commotion has ceased, but in its place is a settled fear, answering to the “ ominous hush ” of Europe, which [Lord Rosebery thinks is more sinister and significant than the bluster which preceded it. As for Germany, there has never been a panic there; only a slow gathering of

belief that war is inevitable. A visitor to Berlin, Cologne, or Frankfort to-daj would find that belief widely and seriously held, and he would find, moreover, that commercial arrangements and business plans were being conditioned upon the continuance of peace. In other parts €>f Europe vents wait upon the issue; the diplomacy of France, of Austria, of Russia t marks time. Is the general fear of Europe justified? Is there, indeed, imminent prospect of a conflict? Let us inspect the situation: Neither the German Gcvernnieiil nor the British seeks war nor desires it. No dispute, issue, nor controversy exists between them, nor does the prospect Of any exist. No honest ground for hostilities could be found by cither if it desired to-day to assault the other a pretext would have to ho invented. There exists no jpeoret dossier that troubles tin* ehan ■Collories; there impends no delicate negotiation to justify concern. So, as the course of international relations ordinal*-

ily proceeds, there is no cloud in the sky. Relations could be no more strictly “ correct ” than they are. It is possible to go further: Those responsible for the conduct of the Government of England, and equally those responsible for the conduct of that of Germany, not only do not desire war. but,

for the strongest of reasons, do to-day desire to avoid war. England “is engrossed with an internal situation criticial and interesting; the Government has embarked on a programme of social reorganisation. This programme, although not yet fully entered upon, has necessitated a budget so heavv that it is attacked as a revolution.

War is expensive; its minor wars have cost England dear; victory over the Boers was at a price truly staggering. The -bill for a contest with Germany would be appalling; though England is still the richest nation •in the world, six months of such a conflict would halve the great fortunes of its rich and double the sufferings of its starving poor. The German Government likewise his devoted most of its energy during the last three years to an anxious search for means to procure mon* revenue to meet its peace expenses. And that task has been so difficult that (the paramount issue of internal politics) it split the bloc which ruled Germany for a decade, and brought about the resignation of a groat Chancellor. Germany, furthermore, is passing through a period of commercial and industrial development which war could not but disturb an I paralyse. The Gormans are finding a profitable and a growing market in England and the British colonics; while, on the other ha ml, they furnish England with one of the Litter’d best markets*. Peace is desirable

on every score of common sense. Both Powers are keenly alive to the dangers of a conflict. It could only be a fight to a finish. It would almost certainly involve other Powers.- Japan is in full alliance with England; Russia and France are its sworn friends. The vitality of the Drei-Bund was proven last spring; Italy may be lukewarm, but Austria is heart ami hand with Germany. The opening of hostilities would Hing the territory of a continent into the arena. In particular it would release the springs of the most vital ambitions of Continental politics: Austria's yearning to drive Russia out of the Balkans, and France’s lust for revenge and the recovery of its lost provinces. From a struggle which would dwarf tire Napoleonic cataclysm of a century ago. who can say what would

emerge? What cell in the mind of Kaiser or King could dream of inviting such chances? The remembrance that France lies eager to spring across the frontier the moment an army corps leaves German soil, must dissipate any conquering dream of the strategists of Potsdam. The recollection that India, will flame into revolt the dav that British

brigades start home to defend the Island, must chill and destroy any English dream of victorious war. Considerations so strong as these might

seem to be rfpriwire. What can he -i I to qualify their force, or to outweig i them? In the fact* of such reasons f.»r peace, what earthly ground is there L»r believing that Germany and England are about to fight? The answer is this: The most serious possible ground for fearing that Germany and England arc about to fight is th* belief of the people of Germany an! England that they arc about to do so. I do not mean primarily that the prevalence of that Relief indicates the exienc•* of causes, unknown to the world, rendering conflict inevitable. 1 mean pr marilv that talk of war, however can less, tends to beget war. Familiarise t\\ » nation with the daily thought of lighting and it will be a miracle if they fail to tight. Let them occupy themselves

daily for two or three rears with discussing, even wi'lh utterly denying, th© possibility of a thing and that thing •becomes more than possible. DisciiciC causes of war. deny that they exist—and you provoke them. Englishmen and Germans ar? t oiling themselves that a conflict is impossible* that it would be causeless and purposeless. They arc trying to believe thirty but. in tin* very act of denying the dire possibility, they have convinced themselves of its inevitability. They exchange friendly visits—and iia-ten war preparations. • At the Aidershot pra<ti‘<* manoeuvres the ‘’combatants" referred to each other as “the (Jenna ns." “Isn’t that an ill considered custom?” an officer was asked. ‘’lsn't it calculated to encourage hatred and stir up bad blood?” “I don’t know as to that,*’ In* replied, ‘‘but it certainly is calculated to get the keenest - >i t of work out of tin* men. They are lazy beggars unless we set ’••in on ‘the Germans’; then you should sc© them!’’ Many Englishmen believe that the country is full of (terman spies, ami ihitt there is a formidable <u»ganisa t ion of Germans, mostly waiters. who arms and who secretly drill. That a certain moment of the day on every German ship is devoted to the drinking of the toast “To the day !"meaning the day of battle with tin* British is another belief widespread in England. 'lo-day there is no thought more familiar to English men. women, and children, no idea more constantly present in their minds, than the danger of German in\a*-ion. No i--ue <»i any new-s-

p 4 r »v< r appears that does >i<»t contain in <<»me form or other a column or a paragraph dictated by that thought; U'» debate in Parliament ever closes without a reference to it; no public meeting ever disperses before it has been reom hilmu d. I d<» not say that all Englishmen admittedly entertain the thou-lit as a fear, though it is undoubtedly true that a majoiity of their hading statesmen ami editors do in their hearts believe, ami will with their mouth confess, tiieir fearful expectation

that England will soon ho fare to face Viih tin* gravest peril that has threat- < nrd it since the Spanish Armada sailed from Corunna. At this point I only sty I hat the minds of all Englishmen are Edl •»! the thmght. Some deride it, but B >' I'l’ue; it lives with them, from wee k to week, by day ami by night. Il would he merely blindness not to see that, given this state* of mind, at any moment there* may be spoken some ambiguous word which, harmless in a tmru-al lime, could, to a national sensiti\ t*ne*s so abnormal, have but one mean’"2 an unfriendly one. Or an incident; there may bp at any moment a Dogger I'.'h .. a l asho la. a Casabianca epis.ode; n: ' Ems or a Kruger dispatch; a Maine ” •*!’ nt. \<» one who knows the nervous r of Britain to-day can hope that an explosion r-onld Im* avoided. Cr. i: tin accident fails (o come, if I tension is mid oken. must it not in Otic ’uc.if<p|f intolerable intolorb- 1" l-'igland. and. in all reason, ini' 1 '-h The burden imposed by the ‘ ■l i’ to 1 rep their place in imlisputahie e 'imanl of the sea is heavier than th* k "iis oi Drake ami Nelson can bear. 'I ■ b.nc* already been forced practically L» abandon the* two Power standard. says :ltl \merican writer; they have rendered their own great Herts of oldf;)Miion<*’l ve-srls useless, for th<\V have E< i- it tin* otlu r nations how to build v\,.r-hips that can blow them out of the "ai.r. England tin Is it m rpssary now t ■ ’ :ild ;> new imvv. every vessel of "hirb co-ts V2.OUIHNN). To man an-l kcr » them in commission, and to back ■arm with - rui-rrs of m*w Invincible wi h <l< st ro\e rs ami submarine''lie au e-iimite the* monrv remiired r • .1 naw such as this? Ami this is II I .<'< ju.itc*. England has. it is true, 'wo \ ears' Mart. but the Teutonic Power i -'id 1 \ ca t chir.’g up. What we have here is already a kind c I 'it ire. at i ■•••ns helium. Every one of ! hr-c* u.ix.il mon<t<*rs. though it lias - i lir- .1 a shot in anger, has already •I 'llrd the nation in <ii"'piiiiui of which ! • ' is built it has shed the blood of tliH nation’s taxpayers, and shrtl it I 1 a mind convinced that Germany'* I'' activity is aimed at England, the i ll I kingdom's position must n»em chi' '! indeed; it is swiftly becoming dei‘at’‘. England has, of course, no drE except d< na\y. Again-t the Kus» •* army of GOO.OOO active garrisoned and hia reserve of 1,300,000 train-

e<l -oklieis, England is able to oppose 2HS.IXN) men —140,000 of whom are abroad. Britain has nothing to correspond to the Continental “reserve.” The lat. I t <ngani-i'd "ten itorials” are as yet about as terible a lone as the "boy scouts” and "gill scouts” who take Saturday half holidays on Hampstead Heath To talk of resisting invasion i- ridiculous. England can never allow a hostile fores to land on its "soil. To add to anxiety, there are to-day the monster airships. Consider the position: England lies at the mercy of a German army, should one ever reach its shores. It has relied for generations on its navy—its boast and pride; a navy so great that it was deemed that no combination of two Powers could send fleets to face it. Suddenly it sees springing into existence, in the shipyards of t'he nation whose intentions it particularly fears, the elements of a German fleet which threatens to be, in a year or two, alone, a match for its own. simultaneously it observes Italy and Austria, nations heretofore altogether without naval ambitions, preparing to build powerful fleets. It is precisely as if Germany had said to its allies: "We are strong enough in land forces; I have army enough for all our purposes. What we need is battleships. Build you battleships, also. Don’t bother about your armies. I will see to all that.” Looking about at its own allies and friends, England finds them losing ground on the water (to employ an Irishism), as fast as its possible foes are gaining it. Is this a position in which a proud people can quietly acquiesce? The British character has betrayed some new qualities lately—the quality of nervous-ne-s, for instance- but I mistake if it will see rhe national glory depart without an effort to retain it. These arc the things that underlie England's belief in the inevitability of war, the true, lialf-uiieonscious motives of its hatred and its fear. England does not in its heart of hearts believe its own talk of Germany’s warlike intentions. But it shivers with a waking consciousness of its own.

This sketch icprescnts the respective numbers of German am! British Dreadnoughts ami supor-Dreadnoughts afloat, and expected to be alloat, at the close of tin* years named. This is based on official statements. Last Jyear Germany sun prised the world by launching a ship, the existence of which was not known. Such is the essential, historic ground upon which the mighty gladiators will sooner or later close in inevitable combat. The immediate dangers of the situation are primarily from the English side, and may be scientifically stated as consisting in: The liability of an explosion released by some accident acting on a national mind which 'lias excjted ’itself to a pathological point; or The more rational realisation by a deteriorating people of the necessity of an early ami a swift effort to regain a prestige which is slipping from them. A secondary danger threatens from the German side, and lies in the possibility that a nation with originality pacific intentions may be goaded to attack, by the conviction that it is itself about to be attacked.

Eor an immense advantage will lie wit’a the Power which launches the first blow. It is knowledge of this fact that multiplies many times tin* likelihood of hostilities: mutual suspicion which cannot afford to await verification will urge to prior action: England and Germany will each be impelled to strike, even without cause, by the conviction that Ihe other is preparing to strike. Tt is conceivable that an nnadvertised descent by the North Sea Fle»*t. now under the command of Sir William May, might, between a sun's rising and setting, strike Germany’s arm powerless for offence; equally conceivable that a foggy night's work by transports or a swift journey by a Zeppelin might lay London at the mercy of its foe. It is almost quite certain that tht* first half of the conflict. Iln* half which all the rest of it w-ould be only a slru «gle to atone for, would Im a bolt out of the darkness on a surpris'd enemy—a mere moment of agony while tin* world's heart stopped beating. Then might follow - but who dire prophesy the course of an epic conflict?