H.—3l

Mortality from Tuberculosis in the New Zealand European Population The trend of death-rates from tuberculosis is considered in most countries to be the most reliable guide to the probable incidence of disease at any particular time. These rates are compiled by the Government Statistician from death certificates made available by the Registrar-General. These can be presumed to be the only form of accurate information available. Trends of death-rates for Europeans in New Zealand are shown in the following graph, and it is considered that the falling tendency, together with the results in later years, compare not unfavourably with other countries throughout the world. •n t\ .7 /» rn i i • / jt n * " it rw 1 l s~i 7 C rr • i n r •

European Deaths from Tuberculosis (all Forms) in New Zealand —Graph of Five-yearly Moving Averages: Standardized Death-rates per 10,000 of Mean Population, 1899-1942

The returns for 1944 of deaths from tuberculosis of all forms give a total of 593 deaths for Europeans with a crude death-rate of 3-81 per 10,000 population, compared with previous years' figures : 1942, 3-93 ; 1943, 3-72. The figures and rates for 1944, however, are subject to final check. It is to be noted that the gradual falling tendency as shown by the graph of death-rates (standardized with rates based on the English and Wales census, 1901, to allow comparison with other countries) shows a reduction of two-thirds the rate at the beginning of the century, with the exception of two periods : — (1) In 1918, when there was a slight rise, followed in successive years by a continuation of the progressive fall. (2) In 1938 onwards, when there appeared to be a stationary effect on the male rate. This tendency appears to be continuing. The general falling tendency is undoubtedly due to the gradual application of new methods of treating the disease and the gradual raising of the standards of living. The apparent rise in the rate for males, particularly in 1918, is most likely due to the fact that many of the healthy male population were overseas at this time in the Armed Forces rather than due to a definite increase of the incidence of the disease. The stationary effect for males as noticed in the 1938 period commenced before the war years and suggests a break in the falling tendency. This is due to the possible factors of increasing urbanization of the population at this time. With a large number of men leaving the country in the later years, the expected rise duo to this factor would appear not to have materialized to any great extent. Nevertheless, the stationary or gradual rising tendency in the graph should give cause foran intensification of effort to improve control. Tuberculosis Mortality Returns in the Maori Population Death-rate trends as for Europeans for Maoris cannot be shown in graph form as it has only been in recent years that certification of causes of death in this race has been sufficiently accurate to allow application of accurate statistical method. It is believed that the death-rate for Maoris has been stationary at a high figure for many years.

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