GERMANS AND THE WAR

Star (Christchurch), Issue 7295, 7 January 1902, Page 2

GERMANS AND THE WAR

1 IS THE GOVERNMENT WEAKENING ? THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERVENTION. (By FRANCIS ALDRIDOE, in the " Daily Mail.") . .._ v.: , BERLIN, Nov. 17. Notning is more significant at the present time than the uneasiness which characterises all the expressions of expert opinion on the Continent as to the possibility oi international developments shortly arising out of the prolongation of <the South. African war. " Can you not recognise the danger you are running, a danger which increases every day the war drags on?" said a foreign diplomatist of high standing to me. He did not specifically indicate what the danger was,' but I had lfearned during the course of long and careful inquiries in- foreign capitals to appreciate the delicate- euphemism which thus conceals the peril really referred to — viz., " foreign intervention." When I left England some weeks ago, I shared in common with most people the self -satisfying belief that the risk of foreign intervention was practically non-existent^ that we had successfully warned all parties whom it might concern that the South African war was an affair of our own and would remain so, that no other nation would undertake to- "bell the cat," and that the clash of interests was too pronounced to permit any solidarity of Continental European action to be brought to bear against us. V A CHANGE OF VIEW. I no longer share this belief, and I speak with a knowledge of the situation when I, assert that the keenest uneasiness is now felt abroad by those who have the interests of our country at heart. And this change of' opinion is not due to any ill-considered reaction from easy-going optimism 'to unreasoning pessimism. It is not due to the growing conviction that the "muddling through" process is dragging" more than ever. , Nor is it attributable to any special sensitiveness at outward visible signs ot foreign ill-will. As a matter of fact there are now few such signs. It is true that the Press continues everywhere to indulge in bitter criticisms, but for the most part it is not designedly impair. If the sources of information in this country was as impure, there would be just as many blunders in analysis and comment. One speaks now of the higher class oi papers ; the lower types still revel in the prostitution of their news columns just as enthusiastically as they did at the close ot 1899. Nothing will affect their anti-Eng-lish preconceptions, and it is no use to make any attempt. But it is curious to note "the change of tone in those papers which lay claim to cultured consideration. They have always been pro-Boer, but their moods have varied, with, however, in general, a tendency to exhibit a consciousness of backing a hopeless cause. This is slowly changing. There is a growing) evidence of a firm and settled opinion that all is not lost, that the Boers will even ( yet emerge with credit from their present ordeal, and that the war will perforce end in a compromise which will decree what will be virtually "equal honours " for both the contending parties. "EUROPE WILL HAVE TO INTERVENE." 'I found this mental manifestation less puzzling 1 than, it might superficially appear. With tne exception of a few enthusiasts, no one on the Continent who knows the facts anticipates that success in tlhe field will Crown tie Boer arms to the extent that Great Britain' will foe ready to take the initiative ■in suggesting an awangement to conclude hostilities. This is admitted. At the same time — and 1 thus is the keynote to the situation — no one believes that the British, will ever succeed in concluding 1 the campaign by force of arms. You simply cannot get an. average foreigner — even be he -prejudiced' — to believe that the British nation will achieve success 'by force of arms. He cannot credit it. He is imbued with the convictions that the Army is stale and -worn out and that there are no more men, and that these is no more money ; Ihe is daily, in consequence, expecting a piece of h'onesti brokerage. Tell him that the credit of the country is too deeply pledged to permit any solution but success, and he has a glimmering of the real situation, but dt is momentary, for he falls back on the reassertion that one cannot achieve the impossible. There is thus a frame of mind abroad! which is extremely menacing for this country. " Poor England "ds the pitying comment. "The Colossus wit?h feet of olay is falling." "Europe will 'have to intervene." Yes, it is always "Europe" — never France, or Germany, or Russia. Mention the possibility of intervention) to a foreigner and he will 'hurriedly, as a rule, deny that any such thing can come to pass ; a moment later -he ■mill admit that it is within, the bounds of likelihood, Tjut' will earnestly assure you : " But we, we shall assuredly not take the initiative." He will them proceed to tell you why other nations probably will do so. THE DICTATES OF HUMANITY. The truth, is that no European! Powr •• would object to intervene af it were sure t. being supported by the others. Up to the present, however, they have 'all lacked common ground for takimg any such action. Intervention roust not seem malevolent or partial. Now, however, ! the common ground is gradually presenting itself — it will be "the dictates of humanity." "Great Britain — that once noble country of Gladstone (this is the invariable reminiscent parallel)— is slowly bleeding to death, she can do no niora, the war is gradually transforming itself into barbarism, and the lassitude of sentiment which is steadily diffusing itself over the nations ideals is the sure forerunner of a retrogression in civilisation. Let us avert this if we can," fis t!he thought, inspired by a minimum of genuine conviction and a maximum of unctuous rectitude. How long^will it be before this thought takes definite form in action? 'No one cam say with certaSnty. Personally I believe the danger may become , imminent at any moment. There is no doubt 'that 'the Kaise* is the .pivot of the situation, and he knows it- Let me, therefore, utter a most earnest warning against the too generally accepted belief that because he has hitfherto exhibited goodwill towards us this may contiinue indefinitely. The fact is that the German Government is weakening. Russian and 1 French agents ace at work', and there is a suspicion — iil-foun'ded, I believe, but still a strong suspicion — that this country is planning a deal with Russia. Germany knows our position., and it is not with her a question of sentiment. If she thinks she is not being fairly dealt with ffoe will throw her entire weight into fbe Russjam scale, and then intervention would mean, armed intervention.