STEADY DECLINE

Taranaki Daily News, 3 June 1935, Page 6

STEADY DECLINE

DOMINION’S BIRTH RATE SOME ECONOMIC ASPECTS. ENCOURAGEMENT OF FAMILIES. “It is surely probable that many young parents would add to their families gladly if they could see the possibility of maintaining them in health and reasonable comfort and of providing the necessary assistance to a start in a competitive adult world,” said Dr. G. C. Billing, lecturer in economics at Otago University, in an address to the Economics and History Section of the Science Congress of the New Zealand' Royal Society at Dunedin on the subject “Some Economic Effects of a Stationary Population.” “Events have proved to be correct a forecast in 1895 by the late Professor Edwin Carman that by 1941 the population of Great Britain would be stationary,” said Dr. Billing. “Indeed, the condition has become apparent sooner than he expected, and the population is expected to decline before that date. Attention is now being directed with great interest and some concern to the economic consequences of a stationary condition of population development. “Economists are examining the likely tendencies of the demand for goods and for labour, statesmen are considering the effects on social policy and administration and the changes which may be necessary to adapt machinery to altered circumstances, and newspapers are commencing to extol the virtues of the large family and to condemn thq selfishness of thc»;e who are unwilling'to do their part in causing a condition of stationariness to be a temporary and . not a permanent phenomenon.” EFFECT OF DEPRESSION. Dr. •Rilling pointed out that within the last year or two this aspect of the population problem had been associated much more definitely with the great depression, and had been advanced as a not unimportant cause of its severity. The decade from 1926 onwards saw such a great improvement in industrial technique and the production capacity of industry as to warrant the renewed use of the phrase “a new industrial revolution.” But circumstances on,the demand side had been very different from those which exercised their effect during the developments of last century when population was increasing rapidly in the industrial countries as well as in the new world. Besides acting as a direct stimulus to inventive and organising ingenuity, the increased numbers provided a sufficient market for, the goods produced. The latest industrial revolution had occurred, however, at a time when markets had declined seriously, on the one hand due to the artificial barriers to trade which have increased so extensively since the war, and on the other hand to the cessation of any marked population growth in Europe. These forces had provided a contracted ijiarket for an increased supply. “The real purpose of this paper,” continued Dr. Billing, “is to demonstrate the fact that while there is no actual approximation to stationariness in the population of New Zealand at the present time, nevertheless the events of the last five years have shown a progression towards such conditions at a surprising rate. Space forbids an examination of. the general economic effects of a cessation of population growth from the point of view of economic theory, and attention will be concentrated on certain aspects relevant to the problem in New Zealand. FACTORS IN POPULATION. “The course of population growth is influenced by such factors as the marriage, birth and death rates, and migrations! influences. In New Zealand, and especially during the present century, the downward tendency of the first two . has been compensated to a considerable extent by a similar downward tendency in the third*. Combining these three influences to get the rate of natural increase, we find that for .the five years 1871-75 births averaged 39.88 per 1000 of the mean population, deaths 12.67, and natural increase 27.21. By 1933 births had fallen to 16.59, deaths to 7.98, and natural increase to 8.61.

“Migration during the present century led to an increase of the population at a rate which did not greatly vary, except during the war years, until 1925. The downward tendency of the next five years was followed by a net migration loss, reaching a maximum in 1932. When this effect is combined with the decline in the rate of natural increase, we find that for 1932 and 1933 the non-Maori population if New Zealand increased by only 10,000 per year, compared with 27,000 per annum for the period 1921-25. This factor would exercise a dislocating effect on the balance of the productive mechanism additional to that which was the result of the fall in overseas prices. While not stationary, the population had ceased to grow at a rate which was in harmony with the course of industrial development The difficult times of the years from 1927 onwards experienced by some industries, leading to demands for tariff increases, are in part explained. “One of the most important characteristic effects of a steadily declining birth rate is in the proportion of the total population supplied by various age groups. This fact has been strikingly illustrated in the case of Great Britain, and the same tendencies have been developing in. New Zealand and are now observed to be of considerable importance. A table has been prepared Jrom .the official figures, showing the proportions per cent, of the whole population supplied by different age groups at different times since 1878. AGES OF THE CABINET. / After quoting figures to illustrate his point, Dr. Billing said that an interesting fact was that, while in 1891 the majority of Ministers of the Cabinet were under 50, the Cabinets of 1931 and 1934 had all been over that age. Whatever might be the opinion concerning the ability of older men to govern well, the fact that the most numerous as well as the most vigorous section of the population, the adults under 50, were not represented on the supreme national council, was one which might exercise important effects on national development. “The considerations here presented have an important bearing on political policy,” said Dr. Billing. “Migration, temporarily, has ceased to be a factor balancing the tendency to a reduced rate cf natural increase; it is inconceivable that it could adequately balance the effect of the declining birth rate on age composition. It is therefore apparent that, as different kinds of goods appeal to different ages, there is developing a change in the kinds and qualities of goods for which there exists an effective demand. This is of far more importance m a country such as Britain, but. it may be of considerable weight in New Zealand. It is suggested that a competent survey of the industrial field and a study of demand conditions might present opportunities for the profitable investment of capital and the absorption of some of the unemployed in productive industry. “Finally, attention is directed to the necessity for reversing the present trend in the birth rate. Moral aspects of the situation are outside the scope of this paper. But it is surely probable that

many young parents would add to their families gladly if they could see the possibility of maintaining them in health and reasonable comfort and of providing the necessary assistance to a start in a competitive adult world. Attention is therefore directed to the necessity for providing such an improvement in our social organisation and the conditions of life, that moral exhortations to improve the birth rate fall no longer on ears made deaf by economic strain.”