The Otago Witness. (WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13, 1918.) THE WEEK.

Otago Witness, Issue 3339, 13 March 1918, Page 35

The Otago Witness.

(WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13, 1918.) THE WEEK.

WITH WHICH Ifc IWOOBPOBATM) TBB BOUTHXUK UEBOTJBI,

"Muoqnam allud Datura, allud eapiectla fllrtt. 1 * —Jdtksai,. "Good nature and food sense must ever Joln.V—• Pop*. Once more the centre of interest in the Great War seems likely ' to shift, and this time from the West to the East. In his survey of the war situation in the House of Commons last week, Mr Bonar Law made two important admissions. Speaking of the fighting on the Western front, he said : “I am somewhat ' sceptical about the German offensive”;; he then added: “The general position at Salonika is unsatisfactory, but this is due to Russia’s collapse.” One other noint in' the survey is worth noting : “Glir vio- ■ tories in Mesopotamia and Palestine,” re--marked Mr Bonar Law, ‘‘constitute not' only a moral and a material gain, but mean immense military accession of : , strength.” Piecing together those several, sentences, some important deductions mayfairly be made, the first of which is the; improbability of any decisive fighting onl the Western front during the present year. • As the war proceeds the one irreplaceable factor' is man power; it is safe, therefore,: to assume that all the belligerents Avill be chary of any tactics likely to expose them to the Joss of large numbers of troops. Mr Bonar Law boasts that the defensive works of the Allied forces on the West are “wonderful”; and it is safe to assume that the Germans, even although they' may not have done quite so well, have established themselves in position almostequally as strong. Admittedly, the rival armies are about equal in strength, withpossibly ' a slight superiority on the side of the Allies. The German High Com-' mand, therefore, must be fully aware that; an offensive on a large scale would bo attended by, enormous loss, .arid with a : very scant chance of achieving permanent' success. The assumption that Germany- ‘ was bound to attack early in the spring was largely based on the idea that the entrance of America into the fight would force her so to do; but all that has been altered by the swine: of the pendulum in: the East. There is significance in the; cable message from London that 40,000 women are likely to be unemployed in' England during the next six weeks owing to the closing of the munitions works.This would seem to point to the fact that munitions are, accumulating to such an ex- i tent as to render necessary some slacken-’ ing off, which would hardly be the case were a great enemy offensive near at hand. Of course, the fact that the Allies are no longer lending supplies to Russia may have something to do with the matter;but this is only a surmise. Probabilities point to the two enormous armies in the West, both at tension pitch, watching and waiting for the other’s offensive; contenting themselves meanwhile with the raids and counter-attacks which now form virtually the whole of the war news.. But while inaction or comparative inaction continues to be the state of things on the Western front, despite ideal weather and the rapid progress of the year, events are moving with dramatic suddenness in the East; and the situation there merits something more than passing mention. -

Curiously enough the very successes scored by Great Britain-in Mesopotamia and Palestine have given German strategy a new impetus, only made possible bv the collapse of Russia. _ In his book on “Imperial Germany,” Prince von Bulow, dealing with “The Future in Mesopotamia,” says: “The Bagdad railway scheme was a result of the Emperors journey to Palestine in 1898, a very few months after the first Navy Bill was passed, and this was in every respect successful. It threw open to German influence and German enterprise a field of activity between the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf, on the Rivers Euphrates and Tigris, and along their banks, which can hardly be surpassed for fertility' and for its great possibilities of development in the future. . . . The Bagdad railway also restores the route by which trade from, Europe to India and from India to Europe once passed. By __ means of a rational irrigation of the districts through which it passes, this territory can once more be made the paradise it was in ancient times. If one can speak of boundless prospects anywhere, it is in Mesopotamia, not only on account of the Mesopotamia oil fields, which, for the most pare lie near the Bagdad railway, but in every respect.” Prince von Bulow continues : “The development of the resourcesof Mesopotamia is one of the great tasks of our future. I have worked long for the establishment of close political and commercial relations between us and Turkey. and I carried on the Bagdad railway enterprise with full consciousness of the immense prospects it opened out.” It is the frustration of this scheme by the British successes in the Far East which gives colour to the idea expressed by Lord Robert 'Cecil that the Germanisation of Russia is but the prelude to another of Germany’s world set.ernes. Germany’s expected occupation of Odessa, according to the view put forward by the Minister of Blockade, together with her insistence on the restoration by Russia to Turkey of Batum, Anatolia, and Kars, is designed to substitute a new eastern route for the Bagdad railway. Simultaneously there comes via New York a report, said to have emanated from German sources,"that Ger-* many claims to have acquired a direct free route via Russia to Persia- and Alghanlstan. It is on this score and in this respect that the suggested intervention af Japan assumes so great impor-.

Germany's New Impetus.

tance. There is obviously a meed of truth in the contention put forward by a number of German writers that should Germany succeed in retaining her eastern conquests, Great Britain will have lost the war. The British Empire is vulnerable at many points, and it would be the extreme of irony if after having spent her strength in an attempt to defend the liberties of Europe, she should suddenly find herself assailed in the Far East.

Fate has decreed that John Redmond should die before the Irish Convention had made public the result of its deliberations. Writing 15 years ago, the - late Justin MCarthy said: “John Edward Redmond is one of -the leading men in the House of Commons just now. He is one of the .very few really eloquent speakers of whom the House can boast at the present time. His eloquence is, indeed, of a kind but rarely heard in either House of Parliament during recent years. . . . Among members of the House who may still be regarded as having a career before them, I do not think there are more than three or four who are capable of making a really eloquent speech—a speech which is worth hearing for its style and its language, as well as for its information and its argument. John Redmond is one .of those gifted few; Lloyd George is another.’’ That eloquence was never more fittingly employed or more thrillingly displayed than when in August, 1914, in a speech which dominated the House of Commons and resounded all round_ the world, Mr Redmond expressed the loyalty of Ireland to Great Britain and her Allies in the war with Germany. It was John Redmond’s good fortune to be selected as leader of the Irish Nationalists in Parliament when the scandal of the Parnell divorce case threatened the success of Home Rule; it was also largely due to his wisdom and moderation that the Nationalists eventually were united under his leadership. The closing years of his public career were, however, years of disillusionment and disappointment. ■ The very moderation which was his outstanding character estranged him from the more violent spirits in Ireland, who to-day find expression in a rebellious and treacherous Sinn Feinism. Towards all such, John Redmond was at the antipodes; his loyalty to the Crown forbade any such alliance. And when his brother, Major William Redmond, died gallantly fighting at the front, John Redmond had the chagrin to see the vacant seat of East Clare filled by that extreme Sinn Feiner, Mr de Valera. Ireland has indeed fallen upon evil days when she affects to despise and reject a man of John Redmond’s mental and political calibre, and his death comes to her as a stern rebuke.

Ireland and Mr John Redmond.

The old saw declares that good wine needs no bush, and there is a sense in which the appeal now being made by the Young Men’s Christian Association in aid of funds for, its work among the men at the front is .its own best justification. Last year the Auckland province generously contributed £50,000 to this fund, and an appeal is being made to Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin to raise an additional £IOO,OOO for the same purpose. Of this, £25,000 is

The Y.M.C.A. Appeal.

allotted to Otago, and an attempt is beingmade to raise £15,000 in Dunedin and district, and another £IO,OOO in the Otago military area. This ought not to be a difficult task, bearing in mind the present prosperity of the province. If additional testimony to the value of the Y.M.C.A. work at the front be needed, it is to be found in the pages of Major CorbettSmith’s stirring record, “The Marne and After.” “Where a volume might well be devoted,” he writes, “to praise of this organisation’s work, it is impossible to convey in a few lines how inestimable a boon to the men this work has been. One may say, I think, that the Y.M.C.A. has proved itself to be one of the most valuable allies a British army in the field has ever had.”