LONDON.

Otago Witness, Issue 987, 29 October 1870, Page 4

LONDON.

(FROM OUR OWN CORRESPONDENT.) August sth.

My last apprized you that the overtures (or peace were ended, and that the knell of war was sounding in our ears. The curtain whose folds of misgiving and uncertainty hid from us during the past four years the scenes and sounds of European strife is raised, and we sit, as in a theatre, beholding with painful emotion the development of the tragedy. In little more than a fortnight, corps d'armee, variously estimated at from 350,000 to 400,000 men, have been collected near the eastern frontier of France, which lies between Strasburg and Thionville. The Emperor has fixed his head-quarters at Metz, whither he has taken his son to teach Mm, as he says, the first duties of a sol-dier-Sovereign, Three days ago the telegraph brought us news of the first conflict, at which Napoleon 111. and the Prince Imperial were present. From the hills commanding Saarbruck, the little town was shelled on the morning of the 2nd, while the Prussian outposts were driven back by superior numbers, and their main body forced to cross the river, leaving the once prosperous and peaceful, but no longer defensible, dwelling place of 6000 people, to the flames. "While crossing the railroad which, through Saarbruck, consects Mannheim with Troves, the German regiments were exposed to the fire of the pitiless mitrailleuse, which mowed them down with magical rapidity. The prisoners taken are likewise said to have confessed that, during the two hours' fight, the conviction seems to have impressed the Prussians, rank and file, that their needle guns were no match for the Chassepot. Should this feeling spread among the Prussian hosts, it may do more than any strategy to shorten the duration of the war. The Prussians profited much by the dissemination of a like feeling among the Austrians of being overmatched in weapons, after the first engagement in 1866, and their own turn may have now come. Meanwhile, seven army corps are arrayed within the confines of Prussia, Baden and Bavaria, under the command of King William in person, in the centre ; of Prince Frederick Charles, who distinguished himself so greatly at Koniggratz, and who now commands the right wing ; and of the Crown Prince, who commands the left, including the Wurtemberg and Bavarian contingents. News has reached us this morning of a successful attack made by direction of the Prince on the frontier town of Weissenburg, in which the French were worsted. Their commander, General Douay, was killed, and five hundred of hi 3 men taken prisoners, This is more than a set-off to the demolition of Saarbruck, and on a greater scale. We may expect the Bame deadly game of alternate gain and loss to be continued until the inevitable hour of exhaustion shall arrive. From the enormous scale on which the struggle is carried on, it is not expected to be of very long duration. The sword has hardly been yet drawn, but already the miseries of shattered credit and suspended trade are beginning to be felt throughout North Germany, while the fickle Parisians, who three weeks since were cheering the Due de Gramont for his precipitate utterances in the Corps Le'gislatif, and smiling on the mobs on the Boulevards, who shouted "Vive la guerre!" have changed their minds, and now ask querulously and gloomily for what definite object has the war been waged 1 why their Government should have begun it without being sure of allies ? and what is to become of the population of Paris, with one- half of their industry suddenly suspended, if the conflict goes on for three months 1 My opinion is, it will not go on so long. There is no mistake about it that Napoleon 111. miscalculated the dispositions of the minor German States, which, because their Governments grumble in diplomatic whispers to him at the arrogance of Pruasia, he supposed ready to take his side when it came to blows. What the Courts of Munich and Stuttgard would have done had they been left to themselves, iwe cannot tell ; but the unanimity of the populations in resolving to defend the Fatherland against attack from its old rival France, left nothing to debate after the first 48 hours but questions of detail as to the numbers of men who could be sent into the field. In France, there is no doubt a corresponding sense of pride and patriotism, and of hope for the triumph of the tricolour. Even M. Thiers was unable to obtain a hearing in the Chamber for the wise doubts he endeavoured to express regarding the haste of the Government in pushing matters to extremities ; and now he has publicly waived all further criticism, and declared that he could only hope for the brilliant success of the national arms. In a word, it has become a fight of nations. The. immediate provocations have ceased to be I

talked about, and will soon be popularly forgotten. Any others Would hate done as well, for the magazines of mischief were accumulated* and what sort of match ignited the trail! was of infinitesimal consequence. The French people felt mortified at the aggrandisement of Prussia ; the French politicians of every section felt that the Imperial Government had been outwitted in the affair of Luxembourg, and the events which preceded the Treaty of Prague ; and the French soldiers showed their ill-humour at haying been sent to Mexico and kept in Home instead of being allowed to try the range of their chassepftts on the Rhine. On the day that 50,000 soldiers i voted against the plebiscite, their cynical master made up his mind that they should not much longer have to complain of garrison in inactivity ; and nobody doubts that the regiments which gave him this significant hint in the ballot box, will be afforded the earliest and foremost opportunity of distinction in the field. An old diplomatist said to me the other day, "France has always been subject to a rushing of blood to the head, and it is necessary every now and then to put a seton in the back of the neck, or she would go mad." The seton this time is larger than ever, and will reduce her to a very low state if it be kept open long.

The Times of the 25th July contained a copy of a projet de traite, which M. Benedetti was said to have presented for approval to Count Bismarck, whereby France was to acquiesce in whatever objects Prussia might have in Germany, on condition that Belgium should be annexed to the Empire, and that an offensive and defensive alliance should be catered into between the two partitioning powers in order to resist all interference or interposition from other quarters. Lord Granville and Mr Gladstone were questioned the same evening in Parliament on the subject, but they declined to say more than that they must wait for explanations from Berlin and Paris, and which they had no douH would be volunteered. In due time revelations and recriminations came, as you will see by the report of what has aken place, chiefly in the House of Lords. The upshot, in the minds of impartial people, is, that there is little to choose between the insincerity and unscrupulousneßa of the two Courts. No man makes unchaste proposals suddenly to one who is his equal, if he has not reason to believe in their being acceptable ; and the fact that, by his own showing, the Prussian Chancellor dallied with the temptations offered him from time to time by the French Envoy, and gave no hint of danger to England or to Belgium, destroys all belief in his repudiation of the scheme on honourable grounds. M. de Gramont and M. Ollivier, on the part of the Emperor, declared that the prqjet was unauthorised and unapproved by him, and that, as Ministers, they had never heard of it beyond its publication ! by M. de Bismarck. M. Benedetti admits the document to be in his handwriting, but says it was dictated to him by Count Bismarck, who outwitted him by keeping the paper without giving him a transcript in exchange. The reasons assigned for refusing the offer are stated by the Due de Gramont to be imputations on the good faith of Russia. So it is " Peachem and Locket" all round. The story goes that Count Beust, the Austrian Premier, has likewise disclosures to make which he thinks would be disagreeable to Prussia. Upon the whole, it is the greatest expose of the high-souled superiority of royal and aristocratical iiplo- j macy that we have had for a long time. Europe rubs its eyes, and asks : Can it really be true that it is habitually sleeping above a mine where some score <>t two of crowned and uncrowned plotters alternately conspire and squabble, at the risk of blowing themselves and us into " almighty smash " without the slightest notice or chance of escape ? It is indeed an astounding climax of progress, enlightenment, and civilisation. We believe here that Lord Clarendon was well aware of what was going on, but trusted to his powers of manipulation and manoeuvring to ward off the crisis during his time. Personally he contrived to stand well with both parties ; and he probably thought that if war could be averted till the Emperor's death, the danger to Belgium would be over, as either a Regency a Republic, or the restoration of the Bourbons would probably be able to put a bridle in the mouth of German ambition. It is hard to believe that his colleagues who have survived him were unaware of the rapacious designs constantly discussed between our neighbours; and it is taken for granted that the personal correspondence which he carried on with Berlin and Paris, extra- officially, contains the proofs of the cognizance of our Government. Lord Granville truly said that he did not expect mischief to be so near when he took the seals of the Foreign Office ; but Mr Gladstone does not i say that he was unaware of the possible

danger to Belgium and Holland, which has evidently existed for years. Many Eeople consequently are disposed to blame im iot allowing the army to run down so low as it has done. Notwithstanding the recall of the troops from the colonies, we are told by military men every day that we have not thirty thousand men to spare for the defence of Antwerp, should it be attacked. The fleet, on the other hand, is considered to be in first- rate condition 1 of strength and efficiency : 20,000 additional m!en have been voted for the regiments of the line j and a Bill is passing rapidly through both Houses enabling the Queen to call out the 1 militia. The liish regiments will be quartered in England and the English in Ireland, as was the case during the Crimean war, and thus a considerable force will be liberated for foreign service if required. My opinion is that they will not be required this year ' at all events. France has quite enough on her hands without a war with England ; and war she would certainly have if Belgium were seriously menaced. Foolish people talk of the two belligerents making peace, and renewing their compact for territorial plunder, Prussia seizing Denmark or Holland, and giving France the left bank of the Rhine. But Ido not believe that either Prussia or Austria would acquiesce in such designs, and after what has happened, neither of the great conspirators would trust the other

The Court and West End are decidedly pro-German. The City continues much divided, but is entirely averse to war with France ; the working classes are silent and sullen, and angry at the notion of having to pay more taxes for quarrels with which they have nothing to do. Mr Gladstone is, of course, believed to be "French," on account of his Catholic proclivities. This would not do him so much harm if he could put on a plucky look, and affect the nonchalant tone that Lord Palmerston would have genuinely adopted under the circumstances. But his speech at the Ministerial dinner at the Mansion House on Saturday last, disappointed all who heard it. He was not expected to reveal secrets or disclose pending negotiations with Vienna and St. Petersburg ; but a few short and ringing sentences would have sufficed to convince his hearers that he was not scared or bewildered by the startling events occurring around him, and that if any emergency should arise, he was ready to grapple with it firmly and effectively. Instead of this, he preached a Sunday evening sermon on the sin of war ; and looked as if he was going to the funeral of his best friend. Mr Bull is not easily frightened, especially when he has quantum sufficit of turtle and champagne on board. But even then he does not like seeing public men look woebegone; and he does not like to hear them talk sentimentally. The Lord Mayor's guests looked uneasy during the Premier's homily, and spent the following Sunday ia grumbling ; and, 1 am afraid, a good deal in profane swearing. Monday came, and with it a sardonic and tantalizing speech from Mr Disraeli, about the need of being prepared for exigencies. Mr Gladstone's reply did not mend his position. It was, as usual, fall of choice epithets and impenetrable evasions ; but it said nothing on the only topics that people wanted to hear about. 1 have not felt the pulse of the nation so low since 1854, when the same attempt to substitute rhetoric for preparedness caused the ruin of the Aberdeen Ministry. On Tuesday, Lord Russell, more suo, called himself in to advise, and clapped on a rather smart blister, which had an excellent effect. Lord Granville felt instinctively the truth of Mr Bernal Osborne's sarcasm that " the Premier had exhausted all the resources of reserve, and that it was high time to say something people could understand." In a few sentences he told the Lords that Government knew the duties they owed to Belgium, and that they would not be wanting ia the performance of them if necessary. His audience, apathetic as they usually are, responded with a cheer that had the old ring in it, and Lord Russell withdrew his motion for leave to bring in a Militia Bill, upon a private assurance that Ministers were about t© do so themselves.

But we seem to live in an element of incessant fluctuation. Yesterday all the treaties regarding Belgium were printed and circulated by authority ; and when compared and read in connection, they divulge a condition of affairs very different from what was generally expected or understood. By the treaty of November, 1831, all the great powers guaranteed the independence and integrity of Belgium. Palmerston signed on behalf of England, Talleyrand for France, Esterhazy for Aus tria, Bulow for Prussia, and Lieden for the Czar. They are all now dead and gone, and cannot tell us what they meant or what they did not mean by giving them this guarantee. But most of them were alive, and occupying the same representative positions in April, 1839, when they signed two other treaties ; one with

Belgium, and one with Holland : in both of which they repeat all the stipulations, except the guarantee. In that which ia signed, moreover, by M. Van derWeyer, as Plenipotentiary for Belgium, we read the extrao*r inary clause, "That the treaty of 1831 shall no longer be deemed obligatory upon the high contracting parties." So that for the sake of obtaining the recognition of Belgium by Holland, King Leopold, thought to be the most sagacious of men, formally renounced the pledge he had obtained from the five great powers to defend his dominions against all comers. Quam parva sapientia regitwr mwndm ! King Leopold was then the son-in-law of the King of the French, and he doubtless dreamt that he or his son could always find in that connection sufficient defence against foreign aggression. But where is that defence now ? With all his sagacity and experience, he aeems, like other men of whom we read, to have built his house upon the sand. He married his son to a daughter of the Emperor of Austria, and he married his daughter to a son of the Kaiser. Maximilian is dead ; his widowed Empress is mad ; and Kin? Leopold 11. has not even a parchment guarantee for the integrity of his dominion. He has, however, something better—the respect of his ovn people, and the genuine and generous sympathy of the people of England. It is very uniuckyforhim that on the e>ve of such a crisiß the old Liberal Ministry, who have conducted the affairs of the country so long and so well, should have been replaced by an Ultramontane cabinet. ThY King himself is supposed to be at heart a friend of the Jesuits ; and were Prussia likely to be overcome by France, it is hard to say what sinister influence might be suspected of being brought to bear on the Court of Brussels. Once again, however, I repeat my conviction that unless Russia, for the sake of obtaining Sweden, joins the partition plot, Belgium, Holland, and Denmark may be saved.

The Dames are in a condition of great excitement just now. The French fleet is at Copenhagen ; and they are anxiously awaiting the arrival of a flotilla from Cherbourg, having on board an expeditionary corps of 20,000 men. Whenever these make their appearance, the Danes will fraternise with them, and with their help will probably recover Schleswig, severed from Denmark in 1864. They look, moreover, to the active sympathy and co-operation of the Swedes, though both courts have proclaimed neutrality.

In Ireland 'he old feelings of antagonism to everything English crop up in new forms. Once again is heard after dusk the chant of the old song — " The French are on the sea, They'll be here without delay."

Two or three open-air demonstrations in Dublin and Limerick have taken place, where French flags were unfurled along with the new tricolour of orange, white, and green. No one of any consequence took part in these assemblages, however, and they are regarded as of little significance in themselves. But the contagious excitement of a great war, which is known to perplex England, and in which France is actively engaged, is a sort of thing which nobody can accurately estimate.

The Land Bill has passed, without eliciting an expression of approval or gratitude audible on this side of the Channel. Landlords, amenta, and attorneys discusß its provisions among themselves when they have nothing else to do ; but to the bulk of the community it is a mere sound without a meaning. The Glebe Loans Bill, in like manner, has its interest for the parish priests, to whom it affords the certainty of having comfortable houses and gardens without any charge to their flocks ; but neither does this excite any general interest among the population at large. The repeal of the Ecclesiastical Titles Bill has passed the Upper House, and is now in the Lower. Whether it will pas<j, or no, is a question of complicated amendments, hard to be understood by the unlearned ; but neither would its passing have any appreciable effect on Ireland. The Irish harvest is good this year beyond all precedent. The price of cattle is high, and likely to be higher, and upon the whole the people are, comparatively speaking, well off. An election is about to take place for the city of Dublin, under circumstances of no little interest. Sir Domiriick Corrigan has the support of the Whigs and the general body of his fellow Catholics, while the Honourable King Harman, standing as a Federalist, expects the support of the Conservatives and the whole of the National party of every degree. Sir Dominick stood at the last election, and wa3 very popular, but he has since then offended Cardinal Cullenby attacking the denominational system of education, for which he will certainly get no thanks from the present Government, who are resolved to introduce it next year, along with the considerable modification of that system which for nearly forty years has prevailed under the National Board. I am told that Federalism is likely to win,