THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 1915. OVERTURES FOR PEACE.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 16480, 4 September 1915, Page 6

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 1915. OVERTURES FOR PEACE.

Every now and again rumours as to the likelihood of early negotiations for peace are included in the heterogeneous mixture of reliable and unreliable information contained in the cablegrams. In a more or less subtle way an effort is mad© to convey the impression that the war lias reached a stage at which the Allies might make overtures in the direction of peace with every prospect of these being graciously considered by the enemy. In a literal sense this peace talk does not lack the note of inspiration. It is inspired with a purpose. The striking fact is that the suggestions for peace seem to emanate almost entirely from Germany and Austria-Hungary. If traced to its source the message from the Pope which has this week been presented to the President of the United States will probably be found to have originated in the Central European Empires. To all appearances Germany is now more seriousiy than at any other time since the war began feeling for peace. Her most recent professions in relation to submarine warfare, coupled with her attitude in other directions, have prompted this view in the neutral American mind, the supposition being that she wishes to rehabilitate herself in neutral eyes with the object of securing sympathy and support against the day of settlement. It can scarcely be questioned that Germany has been.doing her best to convince.Russia of the desirability of concluding a separate peace with her. It has been stated that her overtures in this direction have been accompanied by the offer of substantial concessions to Russia which Germany might or might not haVe it in her power to make ,good. As far as we can discern every advance of Germany into Russian territory has been associated with fresh overtures, more or less veiled, for peace—overtures no doubt largely influenced by 1 the desire of Germany to eliminate Russia from the war -so that she might be free to concentrate her attention on the western front and on the task of relieving Turkey in her present straits. The enemy nrobably recognises the ' hopelessness of endeavouring to get Great Britain or France to 'discuss peace at the present hour. That Russia should offer a better mark for such overtures would be the - natural conclusion, especially in view of the manner in which Germany has latterly been seeking to drive home the argument that Russia has nothing to gain by continuing the war. But. we may be sure that a peace which would terminate the whole war would be really acceptable to Germany at the present time. She is in possession of large areas of enemy territory, the occupation of which would place her in a good position to bargain for what she would ' regard as an honourable peace. In the eastern theatre she is pressing' the Russians well back. It is small wonder that she should be giving indications of a desire to seize the tide in her fortunes before it begins appreciably to ebb. Her attitude in this relation was well expressed recently in the New Statesman: "Germany and Austria-Hungary are never likely to have a more favourable moment for making peace than during the next three months, while they have not exhausted the advantages which greater military preparedness gave them, while they occupy territories in which all their original opponents are vitally interested, and while the desire to [ avoid another winter campaign must weigh heavily on all who experienced the rigours of the last. . . . We may expect, therefore, before long to see the enemy Governments set all possible machinery in motion with a view to creating a peace atmosphere." It has to be remembered, too, that while Germany now holds advantages which would be important as affecting the settlement of the terms •of peace from her point of View, she has to face the prospect of being powerless to retain these advantages. It can scarcely be doubted that her military resources are dwindling, and that, the longer the war lasts, she must, in default of other countries joining her in the war, be meeting her enemies in circumstances that will place her under a growing disability. It is, there-" fore, becoming more and. more manifestly her policy even now to pose as at once victorious and reasonable, as the one Power with strength enough tq win the war and with magnanimity enough to desire it to be ended on terms of compromise. But Germany has to reckon with the. deep purposes underlying the sacrifices which Great Britain and her allies are making in the interests of' Europe, and, as they are entitled to believe, in the interests of civilisation. It is essential above air things that those ■ sacrifices shall not have been made in vain. They would certainly have been made in vain if the Allies were to make peace with an unbeaten enemy. In that event the war would have been a triumph for militarism and aggression, and the world would have no security of safety in international treaties for any State. The German peace talk will fall, however, upon deaf ears. The attitude of the Entente Powers to peace proposals is clear and unequivocal. Not in the hour of Germany's advantage, but in the hour that represents the opportunity which they are determined shall arrive, will Great Britain and her allies discuss terms of peace.

For the time being there is, we doubt not. a more or less firm determination on the part of the peoples of the Allied nations that Germany shall never again be allowed to use her economic 'weapons, as she has used them in the past, to acquire power and wealth at their expense. If this determination is maintained after the war is over, well and good. But we cannot be sure that, in the absence of artificial barriers against- a renewed German invasion of the markets of the world, it will be maintained. Indeed, we may assume with a good deal of confidence that, unless the Allied nations and their oversea dominions make up their minds during the Avar that a commercial boycott of Germany shall thereafter be established by them, German traders will insidiously and persistently push their wares into British, Russian, and other markets. The loss of the British and Russian markets in itself must have been very severely felt by Germany since the war began and her exclusion from them after the war, if a policy of exclusion' is decided upon as it should be, will bo a tremendous blow. Great Britain and Russia, with the United States, have been the Powers with which Germany traded most largely in the past. In Russia in particular Germany had, prior to the war, secured a position of commercial predominance. Nearly onehalf of the imports of Russia came over the frontier from her westerly neighbour. And the German genius for organisation was so skilfully applied in Russia that before the outbreak of war a considerable proportion of the Russian internal commerce was under the direct and immediate control of Germans. That Germany will maie a gigantic effort, as soon as the war is over, to recover the markets which for the time being jshe has lost is absolutely certain. She will restore the wreckage of her legions to her factories and will, as Mr H. G. Wells puts it, " sail in at once to economic victory and to the accumulation of fresh wealth and energy for another war." That is an after-war development for which all the countries that are now opposed to Germany must be prepared And to which they must, in the in-, terests of their own trade, offer a stern, unrelenting resistance. If they do not meet it in. the most effective way possible they will not have learnt the lessons of the war, terrible though the price is which it is costing them in treasirre and, most seriously of all, in precious lives. The application of the most effective measures to combat a fresh invasion of the Allied countries by German commerce may neces sitate the surrender, in the case at least of the British people, of cherished fiscal beliefs. The surrender, which, however, need be partial only and not complete, will be dictated by sound considerations of commercial strategy. Germany should be treated, as she deserves to be treated, in a class by . herself, outside the pale, of civilised communities. -"Germany is an insane country, a de-civilised country " — we quote again a writer whom we have already cited—"and we cannot afford to treat her with the generosities of civilisation." For thjs reason we welcome the Budget announcement that the Government of this dominion, proposes to ask Parliament to place a duty of .50 per cent, on all importations from enemy countries, with an exception in the case of such goods as may be exempted by Order-in-Council.