THE TRANSVAAL.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 10601, 22 February 1896, Page 6

THE TRANSVAAL.

EXCITEMENT IN ENGLAND,

(By Oor Special Corrksfondent.)

London, January 10.

Who could have foreseen that the year 1895 would close aud the year 1895 open with two such tremendous crises, one on the top of the other, as the Venezuelan and TraDsvaal difficulties. I shail not wsste space in discussing events which will ba five weeks old when this letter reaches you, but shall instead, so far as may be, throw s few " side lights " on the case, aod endeavour to show you how the situation is viewed here—with the possible outcome.

That Dr Jameson's invasion of the Transvaal wss at least expected by some people iv England is quite certain. Protest as we may against tho offensive attitude of Germany there can, I think, be little doubt that a coup d'etat was projected by somebody, add that hud thing, gone as was expected Dr Jameson would have been Dictator of the Transvaal, aud the attempt to constitute a huge homogeneous South Alrican Dominion, which' has been so long in the dreams of certain well-known public men, would have been on the high road to accomplishment. Had the mother country endeavoured to interpose the cousefjuouce would have been either war with tbe united British colonies of South Africa or. their eeparation from Great Britain and declaration of independence. Aud all this was almost within an ace of becoming an accomplished faot. Whit prevented its accomplishment and precipitated ruin ou tbe head of the able and gallant but independent Jameson is not yet clearly known ; perhaps never will be.

I don't mean tbat no ostensible explanations will be forthcoming —on the contrary tbese already swarm. Jameson did no doubt fully believe that he was murching to relieve fellow-countryinea and couutrywoineu, who were in grave peril. But how came he to be so misled, who misled bim, and who betrayed bim ? Cecil Rhodes avers that he was not the author of Jameson's mad raid. We mutt bslieve him Bufc had Jameson's expedition succeeded the result would have exactly fitted in with all the known views and aspirations of Rbodes as to the founding of a great South African federation. ■ ■

Jameson's action iv cutting the telegraph wires to prevent any official recall reaching him aud his refusal to obey when called on in the Queen's name to retire are pregnant with suggestions. His utter betrayal by the Uiilandera in Johannesburg, who allowed him to be crushed by 2000 Boers, only two miles from the city within which they had 10,000 armed men in readiness is another perplexing problem. And the astonishing preparedness and swift mobilisation of the Boers is another. Please don't " basket" all this just yet as mere comment or platitude. It is essential that I should make clear in limine the factors in the tremendous problem that has so .unexpectedly been presented for solution, one in which every portion of the British Empire is most intimately interested.

Most people here are amazed afc the apparent cowardice and strange inertia of the Uitlanders at the critical moment. There are not wanting suspicions that all the puzzles are in reality part of one tremendous whole, aud that we have been manoeuvred into our present fix by masterly, if unscrupulous, strategy on the part —or on behalf of the Boers. Whether " Oom Paul" himself is such a paßt master in strategy as to have worked out this scheme no one can say, but it does seem to have been worked out very completely. The causa of the Uitlanders is grievously damaged if not ruiued. The Boers have once more defeated ah English force in open battle. Tho Boer mana is immensely enhanced, while that of Eugland is discredited. J*meson, the mo«t dangerous enemy in the field, has been tricked to destruction, and is a helpless captive. Rhodes his been forced to resign his Premiership. England has beeu embroiled with Germany, and ber suzerainty over the Transvaal has been openly denied in Europe. This is a very big score indeed for Kruger!

The excitement caused in England by the cable news of Dr Jameson's movement and its disastrous result went bsyond auything I can recollect since that sad day in 1885 when the humiliating intelligence arrived of General Gordon's martyrdom after his cruel desertion 6y tbe English Government of the day. Literally, nothing else seemed to be thought of, or talked of, or written of. Enthusiastic admiration of Jameson's pluck and energy quite override all qualifying reflections as to the ioiprudence and unjustifiableness of his conduot in thus invading an independent Stato in flat disobedience of the express commands of his Sovereign. In all cases the one feeling seemed to triumph over every other consideration : "Thank God! If we are a nation of shopkeepers we have some of our old qualities Btiil left!" The old English courage and dariDg is not yet extinct after all. But when reports—grossly uutrue—began to arrive of harsh treatment accorded by ths Boers to their prisoners, of Dr Jameson being shot or hanged without trial —one infamously lying telegram alleged that he had been burnt alive! —the popular excitement was almost uncontrollable.' Nobody could or would remember that Jaiaeson's action was no more warrantable than would have beeri a French or Russian armed invasion of New Zealatid on behalf of Te Whiti, at the time of Mr Bryce's march ou Parihaka. The shout was for vengeance on the Boers, and the re-capture of the Transvaal so cravenly given up to them after we had been so badly thrashed by them at Majuba Hill.

Even the wise and admirable action of Mr Chamberlain in promptly disavowing Dr Jameson's proceedings aud insisting on his abandonment of them was received'iu the first heat with deep regret and even resentment by the unthinking majority, although the more thoughtful recognised its prudence and propriety. There was such a rush td enlist as has never before been known. The recruiting sergeants had their hands full. The volunteers clamoured for improved organisation and discipline, declaring their willingness to submit to anything so long as thoy could be of real practical uso to their country. Applications for enrolment iv tbe various volunteer corps poured in with embarrassing Copiousness. It was a great and eoulstirring thing to see.

Nor was all this patriotic ebullition directed against a relatively small people like the Boers. No; ib was felt from fche first that there was something deeper and more serious in the background of it all, and tbat the country was on the extreme verge of a great precipice, at the foot of which lay the stormy soa of a terrible European war. A perfoct roar of rage was elicited by the publication of the German Emperor's offensive telegram of sympathy to President Kruger and by the statement that Germany had arranged to lend a force to assist fche Boers if necessary, and had arranged with Portugal to permit its being landed, at Delagoa Bay and- marched across Portuguese territory into the Transvaal on the perfectly false pretext of protecting German residents in the country.

All fche leading journals, from The Times downward, condemned in tertn^ of unmeasured stronuonsness the unfriendly and almost insulting act of the Kaiser who, it was at first assumed, had once more " gone off his head," and allowed unreasoning impulse to run away with him. Bufc it soon appeared that this first estimate was inaccurate. Ifc soon transpired tbafc the German Emperor, like the American President, had voiced the earnest sentiment of a vast majority of his people. Tbis simply modified tbefirst outburst of irritation agaioet the arrogaDce of the Kaiser, with a deep and dangerous resentment against the German nation, which even yet may have a grave outcome, though at the time I write it ia hoped that a rupture has been averted. England spoke out with a united spirit that made

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every loyal heart burn and thrill. _ Oo all hands, and in every publio paint, was to be heard or sesn calm and resolute declarations that England could not submit to be bullied or insulted, or interfered with by any foreign Power, and was not afraid of war even with Germany in defeuca of her own sovereign rights. Germany evidently had coauted on combining all Europe against Groat Britain, relying on the animosity recently shown by Franco, ou the desire of Russia to encroach in Asia, and ou tho resentment felt by the other members of the Triple Alliance at England's refusal .to join that alliance, thus making it not only quadruple but irresistible. But she apparently ' reckoned without her hosts. France promptly said she oould enter into no terms with Germany until Alsace and Lorraine, Strasburg and Motz were restored. Sho was not sorry to Bee Buglaud snubbed as to her colonisation encroachments, but wal) not prepared to "pull the chestnuts ont of tho fire for Germany like a dratted monkey." Russia evinced no sympathy with Germany, but, while denouncing England's land-greed, hinted that the present would be an excellent opportunity for England to enter into alliance with Russia —au alliance whioh Russia would ooruially welcome and which would enable all the vexed questions between the two nations to be satisfactorily and permanently arranged.

Italy declared her intention of holding aloof. Austria simply implied an invertebrate idea of following the lead of Germany. In tbe opinion of soase, who are well qualified to judge, the ultimate consequence of an Anglo-German war, however severely England might suffer, would be that France and Russia] would sooner or later " t»ka a hand " aud resolve the German Empire into its former condition of the Kingdom of Prussia and various minor independent States. But this is perhaps a little too previous.

England has made, and is making, extensive preparations for war should thia prove inevitable. A naval force is being mobilised foe South Africa aiid largo military reioforoaments are being sent thither. No precaution apparently ia being neglected in tho way of full preparednesn. No such grave emergency has confronted any British Qovernmeat since the ultimatum was sent to America when Stedell and Mason were taken by force out of the British mail steamer Trent. What has aroused England's indignation quite as much as tha Kaiser's unfriendly telegram is the discovery that Germany has evidently been plottiug for somo timo past against Euglish interests in South Afric*, with the object of overturning British preponderance in that part of the globe. Indeed, we have not as yet by any means got lo the bottom of the pit of underhand intrigue which has opened to our astoaiibcd vision. Nobody yet knows tha true " inwardness" of what has happened. Whether the whole affair had its origin in German intrigue, or in the Bosr ingenuity of device, or in the ambition and "dodgiuess" of Rhedesian and Chartered Company tactics, or in a conspiracy of South African capitalists, we do not yet know definitely. Perhaps we never shall.

But among other suspicious circumstances is the alleged discovery that the letter calling on Dr Jameson to come to the defence of the endangered English in Johannesburg was drafted in the London office of a certain South African capitalist two months ago! This, of course, may be untrue, but the existence of such a report affords a strong indication of the drift of public suspicion even in England as to the little ways of tbe Chartered Company. Oo the Continent the company is regarded with the most intense distrust, aud even the presence of Mr Cecil Rhodes on South African soil is looksd ou »3 a constant source of danger. This may be a grossly exaggerated view of the case, bat all the same it is very widely held. Sir George Grey holds particularly extreme views regarding the Chartered Company, and denounces their position as one wholly indefensible ou any ground of right, or public policy. He has always severely condemued the granting to them of such a charter as tbey hold. He regards fche present trouble as only the ptobable and natural outcome of tbe error in policy which handed ov«c so vast an area of land to the company. He would revoke the charter without aa hour's delay if this could legally be done. As might have been expected, Sir George has been largely interviewed in this connection, and has spoken his mind pretty frteely. It is a fact that he has long anticipated some trouble of this sort in Sonth Africa, for in conversation with me some months back he confidently predicted ifc.

The present position has of cour.se beeu enormously improved by the gratifying remit* of Mr Chamberlain's able generalship and Sir Hercules Robinson's masterly diplomacy. Bat a terrible crisis has been escnped only by a hair's breadth. Had President Kruger insisted upon his undoubted rights and carried out the death sentence upon Jameson, British South Africa would have risen almost to a man, aod the carnage would have been terrific. No qu»rter would have been given on either side, and we should have witnessed a veritable return of savagery. Aod then would bave come European interference from some quarter, and that would havo meant a vast and sanguinary war. Even now we are not " out of the wood." Polite efforts are being made to minimise the menacing aspect of England's extensive preparations for war by representing these as merely the execution of certain departmental arrangements settled long ago. But we "know all about that." At any rate, England is not dead or asleep,, but very much " alive," and quite ready to begin "kicking." At present the danger lies mainly .in the possibility that Germany may insist on the non-existeuoe of the suzerainty claimed by England over the Transvaal. In tbe Loudon Treaty of 1884 the words "suzerain" and "suzerainty," whioh were in the older treaty of 1881, were either intentionally or inadvertently omitted. The Continental Powers contend that the omission was a deliberate cession of the suzerainty on England's part. Lord Salisbury aud Mr Chamberlain deny that England ha* relinquished any of her rights, and state that Eugland in fully prepared to maintain all the rights she deems herself to possess. Herein lies one danger. The other is th»t the Boers may seek to pu«h their victory by demanding excessive indemnity from the Chartered Company, and the banishment of Rhodei and Jameson. This might cause serious trouble.

Meanwhile we have the satisfactory assurauoe of Sir Hercules Robinion that the Transvaal difficulty is at an end. The prisoners' lives have been spared ; they have been kindly and pvru generously treated; and they have ben handed over unharmed to Sir Hercules Robinso«, as High Commissioner for Great Britain. What is to follow is as yet unknown. But that they will have to undergo a trial for law-break-inir of so serious a nature can hardly be doubted. . Public feeling all over the Empire is very bitterly aroused against the craven Uitlanders of Johannesburg, who lured Jameson and his men to their fate aud then left them to their doom, whatever it might be, within two miles of fche city, though the Uitlanders were in force enough to make his raid a success bad tbey possessed the courage to issue forth and support him. But they dared not make good their promises to their would-be deliverer. They remained safely within the walls, aud left him to perish, or at any rate to owe his life to the forbearance and clemency of the Boers. Nobody will core now what becomes of them, and indeed it is not easy to see the special hardship of their ca«e, Nobody asked them to settle in the Transvaal. They went at their own free will to make money, to extract the gold from the country. Why should they not remain subject to the admitted owners and people of the country ? English feeling manifests itself everywhere by frantic cheers for Dr Jamenon whenever and wherever an excuse can be found for giving them. This happens nightly at each of the musical halls, where just a tiny bit of "gag" having reference to Jameson or the Kaiser instantly brings about an interruption of the performance for several minutes by storms of cheers or groans, as the ease may be, or by -vociferous chanting of the National Anthem.

Down at the Bast End some German sailors, who had displayed some degree of bumptiousness were promptly bonneted by tbe British seamen in the neighbourhood, who administered condign chastisement with fist and boot toe before tbey allowed the presumptuous Teutons to retire. There was an unfortunate rumour that the Kaiser had been burnt in effigy in Ireland by the British regiment of which he is honorary colonel, but I ara glad to say this proved false. It would have bsen a most serious complication, and this is not needed just now. Even the publication of the rumour has proved very mischievous. Some German Socialists were so unfortunate as to imagine this a favourable time to air their views in Hyde Park. They were wofully undeceived; an infuriated crowd instantly collected aud drowned the Teutonic orators with a deluge of groans, hisses, and abuse. Nor did even thi3 satisfy the patriotic sentiment. A rush was made, the agitators were seized, and treated to a really sound, liberal, and earnest Socialistic buffeting. Their movement did not benefit in respect of many halfpence, but in point nf kicks tbe contributions were absolutely profligate io their generous'ness. Oue good thing at least has come out of this war scare—tha most serious one' for many a long day—namely, that in tho opinion of fche best judges our country is proved to be in a better position to defend or enforce her rights than she has ever been before, in modern times at all events. Our navy is pronounced to be in splendid order ahd in perfeot readiness. Its strength is declared to be fnlly double that of any other navy afloat, and we possess some appliances which no other nation can boast, though judicious reticence is preserved on this head. Oar army, too, though small in numbers is asserted to be in unprecedentedly admirable condition and preparedness. Our volunteer force has never been co la_re. so enthusiastic or so well equipped, and offers have been made which if accepted would result in the bitter force being augmented to a total of a million men. Never was England lesti in a mood to be trifled with or wronged or insulted than now. Never probably was she in a better position to revel Regression or to »VKU2e insult.

Mach now depends on the action of " Oom Paul." If he really demand* the abrogation of the treaty of 1884, tbo abandonment of British suzerainty, the relinquishment of the right of pre-emption of Delagoa Bay—to say nothing of an inordinate, indemnity from the Chartered Comp»ny, and the perpetual banishment from South Africa of Rhodes and Jameson, all of which he is rumoured to contemplate demanding, then indeed uo modus vivendi will be feasible. These first three demands at any rate, would be peremptorily refused. Should Germany support such demands, and insist upon their being conceded, then there will be war, which heaven f oref end! If France and Russia had any latent idea of joining Goimany, against England, which appears wholly unlikely, they must havo been interoated to read a most outspoken declaration ou the part of a leading American paper—one of the moat extreme advocates of the Monroe dootrioe—that in case of such a triple alliance agiinst Great Britain, America could not and would nut s and by idle and see the mother country crushed, but whatever ' her own gricvauoe might bs would let that stand over, and would make common cause with England for all Anglo-Saxondom against any such hostile combination.