A MOO hLS H MESSIAH.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 6807, 8 December 1883, Page 2 (Supplement)

A MOO hLS H MESSIAH.

(Spectator, February 10,18S2,)

One of tho most striking signs of the deep unrest within the Mahomrcedan world—an unrest visible in the Panislamic movement, the insurrection throughout North Africa, and the important though badly-reported struggle for power in Mecca and the Syrian Desert—is tho increased expectation of the immediate arrival of the Mehdi. All good Mussulmans of all sects, whether orthodox or heretical, believe that in tho dark hour of Islam God will send down a Mehdi, or Teacher, whom Mahoinmed himself foresaw, and who he prophesied should be an Arab of the clan Koreisb, and a descendant of his own house He will restore Islam, reunite the Faithful, and either become Khalif or for a time supersede him as ruler of the Mahommedans throughout the world. Usually tho belief is of no mote importance than the belief of some Christians in the coming of tho Millennium, but of late it has taken a stronger hold of the general Mussulman mind, has become a dogma instead of a recognised idea, crops up in many places at onoa, and most seriously distufba the oldestablished Mahommedau Governments, whoße rulers are well aware that the moral basis of their authsrity would ba wholly destroyed by the appearance of such a pretender. It is so general in Arabia and Syria that the Turks watch the family at Mecca from which the Medhi should come with an intentness that has already produced tragical results, and might any day produce a massacre. It is tho evident belief of Mr Blunt, the Arabian traveller, that tho next aspirant for power in that region will call himself El Medhi, the teacher who is expected, and that if ha appears and wins tho smallest bkirmish half Arabia will flock to his standai-d. In Egypt the followers of Colonel Ar^bi aro said to be earnestly watching for the promised deliverer, whilst in Tripoli a correspondent of The Times, evidently possessed of unusual information, declares that El Mehdi, the sacrosanct head of the Senouasia community, which has monasteries by the hundred in North Africa, and even in Arabia and Syria, and is obeyed By Mahomrriedan tribes of tho desert whose very names are unknown to Europeans, claims to be the long-expected Teacher, and promises to proclaim himself openly to the world on November 12,1882. A prophecy to that effect has beon carefully circulated for Eomo years through the Moorish-Mussulman world, and ia thoroughly known all through the South Mediterranean, from Aleppo to Mogador. It is balieved to have been drawn up by Senoussi, the Algorine Aloor, —a Shereef, we believe, or descendaut of the Prophet, though wo are not quite certain, —who, in 1850, founded the great organisation which now disputes with the Turks the sovereignty of Southern Tripoli, and which, tho correspondent says, supplies tho material resources for the resistance 'offered by the Tunisian tribes to the French invasion. The prophecy is couched in these words :—" On the first of the month of Moharram, in the year 1300 (November 12,1882.), will appear tho El Mehdi, or Messiah. He will bo exactly 40 years of age, and of noble bearing. One arm will be longer than the other; his fathor's name will be Muhammed. his mother's Fatima, and ho will ba hidden for a time prior to his manifestation.". El Mehdi has the physical peculiarity referred to, his right arm reaching to hia knee, and ho has for four years been hidden from all eyes in religious retreat. Prophecies of this kind circulating among a people always ready to believe, and just now excited alike by European pressure by the Sultan's missionaries, who are preaching the unity of Mahommedans everywhere, and by a wave of religious revival, will be very apt to produce their own fulfilment. There waa no doubt among thoso who carefully examined the great movement called the Indian Mutiny that the uprising, though not caused by the prophecy that the East India Company should cease to reign in 101 years from Plassey—a prophecy curiously fulfilled—was accelerated by it, and owed to it much of its temporary success. The family and tribal jealousies which are so strong in Mecca may prove obstacles to a Moorish claim; but Islam is essentially democratic, a wave of popular feeling may proyo irresistiblo, and we think it quite reasonable to expect that a Mehdi will appear, and that his first habitat will be North Africa, whero tho tribes aro all of ono faith and language, all martial, all expectant, and where, but for the French soldiers, any considerable Mussulman leader would havo no difficulty whatever in setting up an Arab Empire, reigning from the Atlantic to the Euphrates. If he has but rifles for his Arabs, there is nothing whatever, except Europe, to stop his career. There is no force not European in existence which could arrest the tribes, for the Ottomans aro powerless in the Dasert; tho clan itself has been wasted by the wars of a half century, and the ordinary Mussulmans of Turkey would probably accept tho Mohdi, or at least fight against him with half hearts. That ia a very soriou3 prospect both for Franco and England, even if the Eastern Question were not brought up for solution by the summary extinction of tho dynasty of Othman as a heretical or halfinfidoi power, and even if the movement did not spread to India. All Mussulman writers not Indian think the last-named result wsuld happen; but the English Bway in India has something of the miraculous about it, that is, supported by forces not immediately apparent on the smface. The Indian Mussulmans have a deep vein of fanaticism in them, they have somo gravo grievances, and they aro very numerous—seventy millions, at least, by the last census—but they will pause, for all that, baforo they encounter tho Briiish Government mid tho innumerable Hindoo warriors, Sikhs, Rajpoots, and Mahrattas, who would bo at its disposal. We should be in a frightfnl danger in the Madras Presidency, over which would pour stroiuna of religious lava from the high plateau- of Myioi-o ami N;iinv'< Dominiou*. but tbo Empire might stand steady to the last. It is in E«ypt that we thould feel the Bhock. We aro by no means confident'iu tho power of tho French to resist at 6r>,t the rußb. that would pour on them from Morocco, from South Algeria, from Tunis, and (rom Tripoli, all at I onco. They would be swept back to the coast, '

and it would take 200,000 men to regain their authority, and a war for which they might not be prepared. If the Mohdi triumphed for a month, he.would undoubtedly claim Egypt. Nnt only does every Arab Mussulman claim Egypt as his of right—with this justification, that a plebiscite would give the Arab Khalif or Medhi four vo'ea to one, against any rival — but a great Sultanet in North Africa is impo.saible without possession of tho Valley of tho Nile. Not only is Egypt the natural troasurehouso or ravenuoprudiicing province of such a dynasty, which will nend treasure to make its armies regular; but without the possession of Eoyyt, free com munication between the North African Empire and Arabia and Syria would be impos&iblo. The Mehdi would undoubtedly try to Boize Egypt, and. tho British would be compelled 'either to rotiro or to fight for their position against land attacks both from the Libyan Defert and Syria of a much more serious kind than any that the Egyptians unaided could attempt. That wo should win in such a contest is, perhaps, not doubtful. Arabs, howover excited; will not face shells in tbo open, and fanaticism ia no defence against rocket batteries; but the contest would consume men wo can ill spare, and Egypt, if permanently threatened by Arabs, must either shake off her debt or be a very costly possession to any European power. Wo do not want to be in the position of a power under guarantees to check auy Arab or Mussulman revival. We aro quite aware how dreamy the prospocts of such a struggle must appear to most of our readers, and have not the slightest wish to exaggerate the danger. It may all pass away in an hour, if M. Gambetta retires from Tunis or El Mehdi catches tjphus in bis cell. It is quite certain, nevertheless, that the Arab mind, whether in Arabia itself, in Egypt, or in North Africa, is strongly exciter], and excited with the tho hopo or fear that it may bo shortly called upon as a religious duty to terminate the reign of the Infidel. That excitomeut is the very opportunity to_ produce a religious protender, who receives information from 300 monasteries, and who will Bee before him a doublo opportunity of striking a blow for his faith, and setting up a most extensive empire for himsolf. That this is perceived by persons ahle to avail themselves of their knowledge is clear from tho published accounts, and if the Mehdi appears and is accepted —an acceptance depending on the result of his first battle—he will bo a most formidable person, if only because his strength will lie in regions inaccessible to European arms. We can neither convince Arabs that he is an impostor, nor follow him into the African deserts. He will have tho support to tho death of at least nine millions of Arabs, and therefore an army limited only by his power of finding equipments, which are probably stored up in the monasteries of the Senoussia to an extent greater than we Buspect, What such an army may do in such regions we may judge from the ill-success of the French, and thero is no doubt whatever that it could conquer Egypt. The danger to us, therefore, is a real one, and there is no practical means of averting it. If the French, instead of halfdeceiving and half-defying all the world about Tunis, had behaved with statesmanlike common sense, and declaring the condition of North Africa intolerable, had invited Europe to end it by allowing Spain to enter Morocco, France Tunis, Italy Tripoli, and England Egypt, the danger would havo been comparatively trifling. Tho tribes would not have united, or uniting, would have been confronted by too heavy a mass of physical power. As it is, however, the French Government, in its chauvinism, has made itself the solo opponent of the Arabs from Lebanon to tho Atlau-ic—that is, has given them just sufficient provocation to cause a united uprising, while still unable to mako tho uprising physically difficult. The tribes see only one enemy before them, and know that defeat will only leave them as they were. The Arabs can communicate, organise, and even form armies, in a secresy which the Froncb encamped along the coast never penetrate, and are only prevented from hurling themselves forward and driving the French into the Bea by their own fears. With the appearance of a Mehdi, those fears may vanish in an hour; and if they do, the French- will have to face a rush for which they are exceedingly ill prepared. If they win the Bret onset, well and good—thero is an end of the Moorish Mehdi and Arab dreams about him; but if they lose it—if, for instance, the city of Kai--rouan slaughtered out its garrison,—not ouly will France have a great struggle on her hands, but the British also will within a month be engaged in an extremely difficult and costly enterprise. We may think we can keep out, but if we do, it will ba at the cost of seeing Egypt oitheran Ottoman-vilayet, a province of an Arab Empire, or the prize of any European State which chooses to say that the freedom of tho Canal cannot bo allowed to becoms an open question. There may be—we incline to believe there is—serious trouble preparing for us all in the Libyan Desert, though most of us do not know wh6vo that is.