PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XLI, Issue 9248, 15 January 1916, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Athons reports that the enemy's forces are converging on Salonika, from three sides, and that the long-expected attack on that place,is imminent, supported by a powerful artillery which has been massing for some time, and apparently is now ready. The story is not official. It is not, however, improbable, because (1) the enemy is aware that every day adds to the strength of a position which, ia a formidable base for a powerful offensive; (2) the defeat of Montenegro and the deportations of the Serbians from Albania must liberate strong forces for work at Salonika. There is, moreover, the new Bulgarian army which tho other day was reported as getting ready.

On the other hand nothing has been heard of the Bulgarian difficulty which at last reporting had culminated in a refusal to do any more work for tiermany without some further concessions. Without the co-operation of the* Bulgarian army an attack on Salonika iout of the question. Until some definite statement 1 is made of the patching up of the Bulgarian difficulty, we cannot be at all certain that the attack on Salonika will be made. • Though nothing official has come through, we may take it as certain that the Allied ermies are quite ready for business. They have a position which can only be attacked by very pow/rful forces, and 5a capable of defence against anything with uninterrupted access to the sea, which means that with an- inexhaustible supply of munitions they ; can view the enemy with equanimity. I

It is suggestive that at this juncture M. Venizeios once more comes into' the limelight. Mr Ward Price has been accorded several interviews by the veteran statesman, in the course of which he has said much about the inseparability of the Greek and Entente interests. This, of course, is not new from him. What is new, and suggestive, is his statement that the opportunity is still within th» grasp of Greece and that M. Venizeios intends to do something to have that opportunity embraced. Mr Price cannot divulge that, though evidently he knows what it is. Conjecture must be guided by the Venizeios condemnation of King Constantino's policy as "fundamentally wrong." That is to say, the policy of benevolent neutrality is fundamentally wrong. It follows that the right policy is one of armed intervention. That would, by the addition of the Greek armies to the Allied forces, make the Allied armies of overwhelming strength at the moment in the Balkans. Thus we grasp the meaning of the great opportunity in the hands of Greece._ According to M. Venizeios, the time has come when Greece can obtain what she wants by joining forces with the Allies.

The occupation of Corfu opens the way for action. Germany is naturally furious, especially as the .French troops have occupied the famous Palace the Kaiser bought from .the late Empress of Austria. The Kaiser has remonstrated personally to King Constantine. A decision is necessary, for the occupation of Corfu is a breach of. neutrality. So was the oc-

cupation of Salonika. That was passed over But in this case a decision cannot well be avoided. That must take Greece to one side or the other.

The attitude of the Greek army is favourable. We know that the other day several of the higher commanders informed the King that if tbe Bulgarians crossed the border they could not be responsible for their men. Since then the King has granted permission for the Bulgarians to cross the border, and the first thing We have alter is the ominous remark of M. Venizelos about the Greek opportunity, with the correspondents revelation ot his determination that tbe opportunity shall be seized without further delay.

There is talk of an attack on Salonika by the enemy, including the Bulgarian troops. It is fairly clear that the lifting of an authoritative hand would send the Greek troops straight ct these Bulgarians. Is M. Venizelos going to lift that hand? Mr Price cannot say. We know the King has refused, in interviews with Mr Donohoe and others. Mr Price only says that the influence of M. Venizelos is still great, enormous, and magnetic. JNow, he is tho majority representative in the Chamber,* and the favourite or the nation outside, it is true that tbe German propaganda at Athens has, by skilful handling of recent facts, elevated German prestige. Nevertheless, the hatred of the Bulgarians is the predominating factor. If M. Venizelos will give the signal the army marches. Again we come to the question "Wnhe?" Mr- Price says "A reconciliation between King Constantino and M. Venizelos would be the happiest consummation, if it were possible." Clearly Mr Price thinks it is not possible, and he knows what M. Venizelos is going to do.

It becomes interesting to go back to the last occasion when M. Venizelos asserted himself. The King was then contemplating intervention; .at all events, the Greek troops had been moved up suspiciously near the rear of the Allied armies then fighting hard in the Vordar valley and along the Belaachitza heights. The temper, of tho Greek troops was not so well known then, and the whole position gave room for large suspicion. The Allies asked for the removal of the Greeks, and M. Venizelos, who knew the temper of the troops better than the King, reminded His Majesty that his throne was not the surest thing in the world. The King withdrew tho troops. He tried to score a political point at the hustings, and M. Venizelos outmanoeuvred him. The King discovered soon after that the German cause was lost, and nailed the neutral flag to his. mast. '

M. Venizelos now practically informs him that he lost a great opportunity, wlhich ■ has come once again,; with even better chances, and must_not.be 'let pass a second time. This time it is stated, with his permission, that a reconciliation between himself and the King is "impossible. We can only conclude that if- the King, will not embrace the great opportunity by joining the -A-lbes, he will have" -'to give way to some one who will. This time it looks as if the shadow of a great event were before us.

The fact that M. Venizelos is of opinion that it is quite safe for Greece to join the Entente shows (1) that the events in Montenegro and Albani*, on the west section of the Balkan' front, do not,' in his opinion, affect the situation, and (2) that he judges the Central Powers to be incapable of sending sufficient force into the Balkans to cope with the Entente, plus the forces of Greece. As his is about the shrewdest head in those parts, wc may, regard the Balkan campa-gn as in a fair way.

The East front sends no message to clear up the situation. Petrograd says nothing, neither does Vienna. But Vienna is called upon to justify its statement of defeat inflicted on Brusiloff's Russians and disorderly letreat. There is no pursuit, but had there been we should have heard the Austrian trumpets through the cable. Evidently, then, there has been no disorderly retreat, and Petrograd is therefore not under the necessity : for denying it. .

The official French correspondent with the Russians reports that the enemy has strengthened his line witn fourteen divisions, and possibly some troops from the West front, and that of these ten have befcn taken away from the Balkans. Here we have the possible explanation of the stoppage of the Russian advance—the Russian commander, in the mood of "da' canny"—and of the confidence of M. Venizelos, which is even more marked.

Mr Hilaire Belloc is quoted as declaring that the Egyptian project of the Turks is fast materialising. He gives large numbers, indicates that munitions are m plenty, but mu6t depend on German sources of supply, and aligns forces and material beyond Beersheba, where a railway to the desert is going ahead. Ail of this, he says, will t>e ready some time in the summer. The only practical time for crossing the desert is February or March, but perhaps Mr Belloc means that the water difficulty will be got over by the much-discussed Pipe Liine. Mr Belloc is very shrewd, very painstaking, and usually-extremely wellinformed. "We may therefore regard his statement as highly probable. The War Office evidently does so, and has been preparing hard for some time past. There is reason to believe that we have half a million of men ready to meet anything that the Turks may bring out of , the desert, and that these troops will be helped to hold the 100 miles of front by a powerful fleet.: u • • • Our men of the immortal Anzacs division are there, as we pointed out the other day, and probably their Australian comrades. For the army of defence there will be probably something like 100.000 Australians. Will they be burning to revenge Gallipoli? The Turks will find out when they cross the desert. That the defenders will smash the attacking force, we need not doubt for one moment. And afterwards, what? That force will assuredly not be permitted to march back the way it came unmolested. The command of the sea makes it a moral that the flank will be seriously galled, and the process will probably plant the British and French flags all over Palestine..

After that the cutting of the .Bagdad communications will he less difficult than the conquest of Gallipoli.

The Bagdad news is not added to this morning. It is probable, however, that the Turks will not attempt anything very great in that direction till they give their shock to Suez. After that they will probably be forced to think of other things. Mehemet AH, when he crossed the desert and got to Palestine, made for Constantinople, thrashing, the Turks on the road, and but for Russian intervention would r.ssuredly have captured the capital. When we get the Turks on the run through Palestine, the Russian intervention will not be against us. On the whole, the Egyptian expedition of the Turks need not cause the Entente Powers much loss of sleep.

The German Chancellor's speech for the Kaiser is just the lay figure ot utterance to be expected from authority in Germany. Of course, it says that Germany is the maltreated, nusunuerscoocl, much oppresses Power; of course it declares that Germany will fight to a brilliant finish. What is more important is that the trusting of the proclamation—for that is wiaat it amounts to —to the Chancellor gives confirmation to the stories of the Kaiser's serious illness. A report today, apparently well-founded, announces that the Kaiser's sister, Queen Sophia of Greece —whose great dejection was reported the other day—has been summoned to Berlin. Germany is silent, of course. But it is now clear that the Kaiser is very ill.