PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XL, Issue 9210, 2 December 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

There are persistent rumours of an attempt to purchase the continuance of Danish neutrality by the return of the Northern Duchies; which no one can be expected to believe. It is of dramatic force, because it- takes us back to the first act of spoliation, in which Austria and Prussia were combined half a century ago. It was the first move in the Bismarck game, which ended in the establishment of the Hohenzollern Empire. If the voluntary return of the briganded Duchies were to be the last act of tjiat Empire, it would be wonderful indeed. The more so as the Germanic Powers would bo united once more at the moment. Consider, however, for a. moment what the cession would mean. Carrying with it the cession of the Kiel Canal, it would mean the paralysis of the Gorman fleet, and the abandonment of the Baltic to the Russians. We believe that Germany’s power is waning, but that it has waned to such a pitch as to require this sacrifice it is impossible to believe.

That erratic genius Sven Hedin has written a remarkable book to_ induce his country, Sweden, to take up arms on the German side. But the book is meeting with no favour. Naturally, for there is another book from the same hand, which wants the world to believe that the Germans have occupied Belgium without a single atrocity. That book gives a wonderiul picture of the German armies and their organisation, perhaps the best the war has piodaced. But as the most wonderful part of the book is the writer’s blind bias in favour of Germany it fell flat, even in its author’s own country. That was in thw first months of the war. It is not likely that a similar book can be more successful at the present stage after Germany has piled up gigantic failures one on the other. What, moreover, could the Swedes do if they joined Germany? Their few ships would be useless in the Baltic, and their army would have to stay at home for rear of a Russian invasion from Finland, which it would have to sustain alone, for not a single German soldier could be sent from Germany to help. At the same time the commerce of Sweden, with the outside world, jvould be swept off the sea by Admiral Jellicoe’s men even quicker than was Germany’s.

The Home Secretary, Sir John Simon, seems to be doing his best to justify the strictures of the Northoliffe press. Returning to the subject of the Russian newspaper’s exposure of the damage done by that section of the British newspapers, he made a perfectly needless apology. He then proceeded to prove, by a list of the evil things done, that the offences were far worse than those he had dealt with. At this point he was virtually asked why, instead of apologising to these newspapers, he did not suppress them, and he rambled off into a swamp of milk and water explanations. in which he lost himself and his Government irretrievably.

He proved conclusively that these newspapers have disturbed the unity of the Entente, and gravely compromised the public safety. He showed by his reference to their behaviour under well-merited criticism that they are continuing their headstrong course. He declined to do anything effectual to stop them. In the supreme crisis of the Empire’s fate, a vigorous decision is necessary to consolidate the efforts of the nation, and destroy the enemy. And the Government shrinks weakly from such decision. What will the Allies third* of such ineptitude P What reasons they will assign for this weak surrender to a pestilent set of systematic mischief-mongers we tremble to imagine. What confidence they can have in a Government that will neither protect its honour nor' safeguard the unity of the national effort, nor prevent the daily encouragement of the enemy, it will not be difficult for the average schoolboy to calculate. If the Government does not do what the Home Secretary proved to the House of Commons ta he necessary—suppress tno Northcliffe press—the consequences may be disastrous. If the Government will not do it, the time has come for another Government to take its place. ,

We have the meeting of the German Reichstag to-day, with a summary of the Chancellor’s speech. It is an interesting document, show ing that the vast losses sustained by Germany do not number among them the official power of bombast. But, with all its bombast, the speech fails to conceal the important fact—stated bluntly by Maximilian Harden—that the German people are suffering great want. All that the Kaiser’s Government can promise the empty stomach of Germany is that organisation will in time improve the food supply. In the meantime, “onr in-

vincible army/ 1 which, by the way, has been soundly thrashed pretty often during the lsit sixteen months, is unable to prevent Germany from being starved, as the Chancellor somewhat naively confessed in the midst of his bombast.

One phrase of the speech suggests a query. Referring to the Serbian campaign, the Chancellor treats it as having avenged the crime of . Sarajevo. Now, the Governor of Queensland is reported to have said that he has learned from Air Bonar Law that the Germans are going no further with the Serbian campaign* Does that mean that the Germans are anxious to make the world believe that their sole object in invading Serbia was to punish the crime of Sarajevo?

Mr Bonar Law has probably very good sources of information._as a Cabinet Minister. Under ordinary circum stances, however, one would hesitate to take him as an authority on the intentions of the Germans in so important a matter ns the Serbian campaign. But in the present case he has with him the elements of probability. Tho Balkan campaign has driven the Serbian armies across Serbia certainly. But it has not achieved the objects for which it was inaugurated. At tho outset the German plan was to strike through Serbia and join forces with a league of Balkan States for the purpose of attempting great things. Bulgaria fulfilled this expectation, but Greece and Koumania did not, and before the invaders of Serbia drove out the Serbian armies, a large army of the Entente appeared on the Serbian border, and a still larger Russian army began to collect within striking distance of Bulgaria. Moreover, while these forces are growing fast, there is no sign of any increase in the AustroGerman invading forces. Tho Balkan expectations of Germany are in the iust, and tho expedition to Constantinople begins to assume the aspect of a very formidable proposition. With five millions at the various fronts, all divisions pinned down by the activities of the troops of the fintente, “Our Invincible Armies” have no men to spare for strengthening the march on Constantinople. It is not wonderful at all, therefore, that a Cabinet Minister should send word to one of the Governors, who- are in touch with his department, that the Germans have no intention of proceeding further with the Balkan campaign. Aor is it wonderful that the German Chancellor should lay particular stress on the revenge for Sarajevo which the Serbian campaign has brought. It may well bo another way of saying that our “invincible armies” can do no more in the Balkans,

In Athens there is not much sign of any belief in this alleged decision of Germany. The Government has given its reply to ' the Entente demand, and that reply practically refuses to demobilise the Greek army, or to take it away from Salonika. Naturally there is a good deal of excitement in the European capitals, where watchful eyes have long been bent with eagerness on the crucial point in the course of the Balkan tangle. This excitement is, we should say, considerably increased by the news that “a leading Athenian statesman” has thrown off the mask of Greece, proclaiming that any attempt to coerce Greece by bombardment or blockade will bo followed by the shooting of British and French officers, and soldiers and others promptly and in stated proportions according to the coercive measures adopted. The leading Athenian statesman added that there are enough Entente subject;, in Athens to save Greece from any coercion. The Greeks are meeting us with the gospel of German frightfulness. Their purpose, which they have had before them from the first, is fully shown by this unmasking. It is to join the Central Powers. The offer of Macedonian territory noted in one of the messages, with the consent of Bulgaria, shows the reason why. _ The massing of the fifteen Greek divisions, and their regular reinforcement are accounted for, as also is the refusal lo remove them according to verbal agreement. The Austro-German armies have pot nearer to the Allied armies in the Vardar, and Greece takes off the mask of neutrality, daring the Entente to spell “neutrality” according to the German-Greek fashion.

The Entente has to act now with promptitude and vigour. What it will do remains to be seen. One thing seems imperative—the stoppage of the supplies reaching the Greek army by the port'of Salonika. That can be done without the sinking of a single Greek ship, and when done the Greek army must either fight or withdraw for Jack of provisions. The enemy is not in overwhelming force in the front, and it must bo some days before the AustroGerman troops can come into lino with him. Before the passing of those days the Greeks in the neighbourhood ol Salonika will, if their supplies are stopped, have to make their decision between attacking the Entente troops in a fight they cannot win—a useless fight, tnerefore —and the withdrawal to which their Government is virtually committed. If there is any other way out of the position created by the Greek Note in reply, we shall be glad indeed to sea it taken. But there seems to be no other in sight, and? as far as the reports from the field go, but little time for it to be taken. It is an acute crisis.

The enemy reports that he has scattered the remnants of the Serbian armies, implying that it is easy to complete their destruction, while the bulk of his forces move up to the attack of the Franco-British army. The implication is strengthened by the statement of the leading Athenian statesman that in case of retreat into Greek territory the Entente troops will certainly be interned: in other words, attacked by the Greek divisions on the frontier. Evidently he wishes to cieate the impression that the German and Austrian troops joining the Bulgarians are about to drive the Franco-British forces into Greek territory. In fact, he practically say* “You are beaten, and our time has come.”

The Serbian account —from a trustworthy source, we are told—tells of a very different state of things. After giving the lines of retreat of certain of the Serbian divisions from Kossovo, much as we conjectured yesterday, the informant describes the Serbian army as by no means a mere remnant, .but numbering 250,000 men, ready for anything. He gives the information that the enemy has not been able to release the 60,000 Austrian prisoners the Serbians have had in their bands since the campaign of Kragujevatz, so disastrous to Hie Austrian arms, adding that the

enemy’s losses during the campaign against the Serbian armies have Deeii enormous. He s ,,r uewhat detracts from his picture of Berman efficiency by an admission that the oerbian troops are deficient in arms. But ; either from his account nor from the enemy’s reports docs it appear that + he German and Austrian armies are making anything like a march in force against the Franco-British positions.

At the same time the tide of war appears to be setting hard against the Serbians in I'he Monastir district, and there is no sign of help from the Allies. It looks as if the Serbians have had to give up their attempt to junction with the Allies. Further news may alter this, but at present the separation appears to be decisive.

Tho question arises of how much of the leading Athenians’ unmasking of the Greeks is a blufi. Koumania affords news which encourages the belief that there is a good deal of bluff, for the accounts to-day represent both political parties as united in* the conviction that Koumania must join the Entente, and will mobilise her troops as soon as the Russians begin to move. This, together with the Bonar Law statement, shows taat there is a possibility of developments which may affect tho Athens situation for the better. In the West a heavy bombardment by forty British ships and lively fight'ng along the Flemish front make a suggestive and welcome diversion. Something very important is afoot in that sector-